brooklynwx99

GEPS has more confluence. should be good

GEFS is at least slightly improved. more confluence and a slightly weaker vort

we're going to have to find out if the GFS is on crack or not pretty soon. it's just so different from everything else

the ICON isn’t a cutter, it’s a Miller B. it gets shunted due E from the confluence, quite different synoptically from the GFS

that is true. the ECMWF schooled it in the short range with the confluence, though. schooled pretty much every other model

the main difference between the GEFS and EPS (& GEPS for that matter) is the handling of the N and S streams and their effect on the confluence in SE Canada the GEFS keeps much of the vorticity in the trough itself, leading to a higher amplitude S/W and not as much confluence scooting out over SE Canada. this leads to higher heights and the mean storm track to the west of us however, the EPS and GEPS have more of the northern stream moving ahead of the trough, allowing for significantly more confluence over SE Canada, leading to the opposite effect. therefore, we get much a much snowier solution with most of the SLPs tracking offshore tough to say which model has the right idea. I would lead against the GEFS only because it's been inconsistent and it doesn't have as much support as the EPS. the GEFS is also underdispersive and often times will follow the OP, which has been erratic. look how awful of a job it did with the Monday system. the GEFS solution is certainly possible due to a lack of a true semipermanent 50/50 ULL, but so are the solutions of the EPS and GEPS either way, there remains the potential for a significant snowfall event over the NE US, even down to the coast. we should see one camp cave over the next model cycle or two, as we're getting into the 5 day range now

he main difference between the GEFS and EPS (& GEPS for that matter) is the handling of the N and S streams and their effect on the confluence in SE Canada the GEFS keeps much of the vorticity in the trough itself, leading to a higher amplitude S/W and not as much confluence scooting out over SE Canada. this leads to higher heights and the mean storm track to the west of us however, the EPS and GEPS have more of the northern stream moving ahead of the trough, allowing for significantly more confluence over SE Canada, leading to the opposite effect. therefore, we get much a much snowier solution with most of the SLPs tracking offshore tough to say which model has the right idea. I would lead against the GEFS only because it's been inconsistent and it doesn't have as much support as the EPS. the GEFS is also underdispersive and often times will follow the OP, which has been erratic. look how awful of a job it did with the Monday system. the GEFS solution is certainly possible due to a lack of a true semipermanent 50/50 ULL, but so are the solutions of the EPS and GEPS either way, there remains the potential for a significant snowfall event over the NE US, even down to the coast. we should see one camp cave over the next model cycle or two, as we're getting into the 5 day range now

we can see an amped solution like the GFS, don’t get me wrong however, acting like an amped solution is a foregone conclusion is a bit ridiculous at this range. look how Monday’s storm has trended over the last couple of days for NJ… way more confluence over the last two model cycles. anything from a cutter to suppression to a MECS is on the table, as per usual 6 days out

GEPS is absolutely insane

GEFS did the same thing and it’s had two colder runs in a row

meh, it’s one run. GEFS did the same crap at 06z just to revert back colder. wouldn’t make too much out of it unless it consistently showed that

yeah the confluence keeps ticking stronger. makes sense tho, as the models are probably “feeling” the developing block, this is the adjustment you’d expect them to make, if anything I would feel great if I was in CT, especially Valley west. a solid 4-8” event is becoming more of a probability

GEFS is improved again… more confluence over SE Canada and a slightly weaker S/W lead to a colder, farther S track. this is a monster signal for this range

as expected, snowfall is farther SE. this is an absolute monster signal for this range

colder and farther S as a result of those changes. this is the second GEFS run in a row to make this shift

GEFS is more favorable than 12z… lower heights in SE Canada and a slightly less amped S/W

I have said nothing even close to resembling that. not even close to the same thing there's a difference between comparing a potential pattern to one that has produced KUs in the past with like 10 different caveats applied and whatever that post was to start the thread. they aren't comparable

EPS is really nice. stronger S/W but also more confluence, leads to a colder, stronger storm

that's why you just don't say things like that more than 48 - 72 hours unless you have a pristine synoptic setup

I am really not one to bump stuff, but omfg

the GEFS also has a legit KU pattern once towards the 10th but we can put that on the backburner for now

it's really tough to say at this point in time. I'm leaning towards the GEPS/EPS only because they have more confluence, which is what you'd expect with a developing block. this isn't really relevant to you guys, but this has been happening with the Monday system... confluence has been steadily increasing over the last day or so, which is leading to a farther S track not to say that this will happen here, but I would lean towards that rather than a complete lack of confluence

wow

there's enough cold air if the SLP runs to the south with all of that confluence over SE Canada