brooklynwx99

this is intriguing

you guys always might be onto something and then you go right off the deep end. why?

i mean, you have a blocked up Atlantic that forces confluence, a -EPO to get fresh Arctic air, and a strong west-based -NAO. that type of pattern has a high ceiling for the entire NE US the change is that the trough is centered over the Plains, not the WC. that makes a huge difference

we pray. this would be amazing

this is what we want. this would have very high potential verbatim with the 50/50 dipole and west-based block

there remains a pretty strong signal for a wintry system early next week with the shortwave ejecting out of the Midwest. just depends on the amount of confluence in place beforehand

it's just that they aren't awful at all. they're actually very active with two storm possibilities so far NYC will just have to wait longer and have less wiggle room. personally I think the 3/5-3/20 window has the most promise for the entire NE US but everyone is exhausted so there's no need to really elaborate on that

jesus dude they aren't even over yet

hey, some people are interested in the weather. I've taken most of the negative emotions out of the whole thing. only positivity

not gonna lie, there are indications that the AK ridging and a PNA moving towards neutral along with the decaying block that makes that 7-15th window interesting but I know everyone is exhausted lmao so no need to elaborate as of now

yup, the largest events for NYC almost unanimously feature a -PNA or at least a deep trough on the WC or just offshore

eh, I've never liked this morning's snow. BL temps are so trash

kind of incredible how bad our luck is this winter. 80-90% of the time that's a blockbuster HL pattern but the Nina is just forcing everything into the Pacific NW. I suppose patterns like what we saw in 2010-11 and March 2018 are a rare breed not going to sleep on it, though. strong west-based -NAOs can do weird shit and I would still be surprised if there wasn't a larger storm somewhere in the March 5-20 timeframe

I can't understand for the life of my why there isn't more of a confluent response over the NE US. it doesn't sit right with me, which is why I'm leaning on this correcting. like it's just not a pattern you'd expect there... you'd expect a coast to coast trough with the -EPO in place as well

no, just think it's funny how consistently awful the GFS is. gave me a laugh this morning

thank you GFS, very cool!

the persistent Ninas help keep the western Atlantic warm in the same way that the insanely persistent +PNA/-EPO in 2013-2015 baked SSTs off the WC. generally the overall pattern drives the SSTs, but I'm sure there's a bit of a feedback loop going on right now that would break once a Nino forces a persistent SE trough

damn. weather is some serious shit

the system around the end of the month is probably our next legitimate threat. there is relatively high confidence on there being both a vigorous S/W moving through the Plains as well as a strong 50/50 in place to establish confluence. the -NAO itself isn't established, so the longevity of the 50/50 is a bit tenuous, but it may be very strong and do the job. this might be a NAO phase change event, which does lend itself to more dynamic solutions multiple members of the GEFS and GEPS end up redeveloping a strong SLP off the coast. it's the best synoptic setup we've had in a while (not saying much), and it's approaching the 7 day barrier, so it's worth monitoring IMO

the system around the end of the month is probably our next legitimate threat. there is relatively high confidence on there being both a vigorous S/W moving through the Plains as well as a strong 50/50 in place to establish confluence. the -NAO itself isn't established, so the longevity of the 50/50 is a bit tenuous, but it may be very strong and do the job. this might be a NAO phase change event, which does lend itself to more dynamic solutions multiple members of the GEFS and GEPS end up redeveloping a strong SLP off the coast. it's the best synoptic setup we've had in a while (not saying much), and it's approaching the 7 day barrier, so it's worth monitoring IMO

GFS made a nice shift towards a more amplified shortwave for early next week this may lead to snowfall from the shortwave in focus, but this also will lead to more confluence for the wave over the SW US one of these two waves is our next legit threat IMO. the stronger the first one is, the better. could lead to two storms instead of none

you could say that for anyone else here that does any kind of medium to long range forecasting

OP run at 384 hours

just for shits and giggles, this is what March 2018 actually looked on modeling around the same lead time. retrograding Scandinavian HP that moves towards the Davis Strait. a SE ridge actually does pop, but it is quickly flattened as the block moves westward and the ridging over the Aleutians creeps into AK the PNA is also garbage the entire time. there is a persistent trough over the WC, kind of like what we're seeing now. however, the -NAO was able to overcome it and lead to a great stretch of weather the main difference here is that the strength and location of the block isn't nearly as ironed down as it was in March 2018. if we do get a highly anomalous, west-based -NAO, which is certainly a possibility, then we could have a very nice pattern in place for the first few weeks of March. if the blocking is too weak or too east-based, which are also both legit possibilities, then the SE ridge will flex and we see no definitive change in our weather. I do like the AK ridge showing up on all three ensembles heading into March. this lowers the AO and EPO, leading to more cold air and a much more favorable pattern I am inclined to believe that the west-based blocking scenario is legit due to the typical Scandinavian HP progression... we've seen it so far this winter. we shall see. I understand the pessimism, as this winter has been horrendous, but there is the chance of an exciting pattern unfolding and just to be clear, I am not calling for anything like 2018 to happen. that was a unicorn of a month. just think that there are some similarities that are worth stating

if this goes up in smoke I'm going to put my degree in a paper shredder. retrograding blocks like this that come from strong Scandinavian highs usually work out add in the fact that it's moving up in time and becoming stronger, as well as being associated with the SPV getting ripped apart, and I think the block is likely going to happen. I wouldn't worry about run to run minutiae when there is a west-based blocking signal this strong