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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    but yeah, they're persistently blocky. -PNA remains, but the -NAO becomes central-based. FWIW obviously, but this evolution has been showing up for a couple weeks now I'm inclined to believe it's legit given that the ensembles are showing the -NAO consistently
  2. brooklynwx99
    nah, even if they look good we should assume they'll look bad later wink wink
  3. brooklynwx99
    yup, blocking builds in later on, likely due to the SSW, and the pattern becomes good for overrunning with the persistent 50/50 showing up
  4. brooklynwx99
    EPS and GEFS have a significant 50/50 low in place
  5. brooklynwx99
    nice to see the EPS also build the -NAO at the end of the run. keeps negative anomalies over the 50/50 region and off the EC. makes sense given the SSW would be an active overrunning pattern with a good amount of cold air
  6. brooklynwx99
    canceling winter on Feb 16th in southern VT is grounds for a therapy session
  7. brooklynwx99
    still nice to see the -NAO signal strengthen and promote a trough in the 50/50 region. would help lead to overrunning, and hopefully we can see it trend stronger as we move up in time... that's what seems to be happening, anyway
  8. brooklynwx99
    I'm really not sure. it is weird, though this is a composite of all east-based and basin-wide weak to moderate Ninos, though. just give us this and we'll all be happy. the central based ones are even better, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. better to assume east-based as of now
  9. brooklynwx99
    I doubt it'll be strong however, this is a composite of all weak to moderate east-based and basin-wide Ninos. still a complete departure from what we've been seeing. just give me a damn Nino haha
  10. brooklynwx99
    ya know, I've been kinda thinking about it, but I'd imagine that once the tropical forcing shifts east with a Nino, you'd expect to see all of these roided out Aleutian ridges over AK and the WC. and as a result, the cutoffs that we've been seeing over the Rockies would be diving into the Plains and Midwest like literally shift everything 500 miles upstream and we're getting crushed
  11. brooklynwx99
    at least we should be good for next year?
  12. brooklynwx99
    I can't even tell you how hard I'm pulling for this to pan out just obliterate the Nina
  13. brooklynwx99
    we know
  14. brooklynwx99
    not sure if we're going to get a full wall-to-wall cold winter for a while, but Feb 2021 had KNYC receive almost 30" of snow, and there was highly anomalous cold over much of the country
  15. brooklynwx99
    it's more the Arctic becoming more favorable than the Pacific. I expect that to continue to not look good
  16. brooklynwx99
    this is so exhausting but whatever. anything good will probably have to wait until the end of the month into March
  17. brooklynwx99
    yeah I agree with the other mets. I apologize that late December didn’t work out, but that longwave pattern deserved some honking and it didn’t work out. it happens. does it suck? hell yeah, I’m just as frustrated as anyone else, believe me and I generally try and include caveats. I don’t think I’ve said that anything wintry was going to happen all winter… just discussing possibilities that were quite a ways out since there’s not much else to talk about. usually filled with a lot of IFs and BUTs and MAYBEs. I’m not going to act as if guidance looks horrible when it doesn’t, or not discuss a potential threat at days 7-10 if it bears merit
  18. brooklynwx99
    no, we're supposed to be pessimistic all the time because the guidance is always wrong, no matter what
  19. brooklynwx99
    that would literally change the entire complexion of the pattern, you dolt
  20. brooklynwx99
    you are a miserable human being
  21. brooklynwx99
    i mean, yes, there is a -PNA here, but this pattern is very active and has a lot of cold air. -NAO nosing in there keeping the 50/50 confluence close as well. great overrunning pattern verbatim I think this look would work down into NJ as well, obviously for NE. the main thing that makes me optimistic is that all of the cold air is in NA instead on the other side of the globe, which was a huge problem in January
  22. brooklynwx99
    yeah there will be nothing until the 23rd, which is also a maybe. IMO anything before like the 26th or so is gravy. the -NAO looks a bit more real, at least, which is when things would get more interesting for everyone. it's moving up in time and is showing up on OP runs and ensembles
  23. brooklynwx99
    yeah anything before the 25th or so is gravy IMO. the real chances would come once the -NAO develops, which is looking a bit more likely since it's moving up in time
  24. brooklynwx99
    true. March can be prolific, though. way more of a winter month than December, as much as many would hate to admit
  25. brooklynwx99
    anything before March 1st is a bonus anyway before any blocking that does occur gets going. that's when the ceiling gets raised it's obviously not a guarantee, but it's showing up more on OP runs and ensembles and moving forward in time the effects of the SSW will also downwell easily to 50mb and possibly to 100mb... this has a good chance of coupling IMO. might also be why ensembles are getting blockier towards March
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