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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is night and day. love seeing the trough link up with the confluence as well. block is farther N, leading to a lower chance of linking with the height rises ahead of the trough great run. this is a major step in the right direction
  2. brooklynwx99
    wow. GEFS is much, much improved due to the more zonal Pacific jet
  3. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is way less amped
  4. brooklynwx99
    same on CMC
  5. brooklynwx99
    CMC made the same improvements with the Pacific jet and poleward ridging into AK. should be better this run
  6. brooklynwx99
    i know we didn’t get what we wanted out of it, but these are noticeable shifts in the right direction
  7. brooklynwx99
    lower heights over the E Pac, higher heights over AK and a shallower trough. all good stuff
  8. brooklynwx99
    GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution
  9. brooklynwx99
    GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution
  10. brooklynwx99
    06z EPS made another shift towards knocking down the WC ridge due to a more zonal Pacific jet… the incoming S/W is weaker as a result
  11. brooklynwx99
    big improvement on the EPS
  12. brooklynwx99
    yup, the ECMWF had a stronger Pacific jet that led to the S/W getting booted out under the block faster… the EPS is following with that idea
  13. brooklynwx99
    nope. the 00z EPS has a much more zonally oriented Pacific jet… this should lead to the same positive changes that we saw on the OP
  14. brooklynwx99
    it’s really coming down to seeing how much of an impact the Pacific jet can have on the S/W more of an impact and you flatten the +PNA, kick the S/W under the block, and you get this kind of solution. and if less, well… the worst thing is that models are HORRIBLE with that kind of stuff. good luck getting that resolved
  15. brooklynwx99
    this was not what I was expecting, to say the least. wow
  16. brooklynwx99
    this is actually really close to a big solution with the confluence parked over the NE US… the block overhead should force this east i know we haven’t seen exactly what we’ve wanted today, but this run just shows how extremely touchy everything is out west and how prone it all is to change. it’s not an aphorism that things will change… it’s almost a certainty with this amplified and as finicky of a setup as this one
  17. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF is actually much improved… the stronger Pacific jet might allow for the S/W to roll under the block changes in the E Pac are significant
  18. brooklynwx99
    what in that post was incorrect? tell me. give me details
  19. brooklynwx99
    also, I only post about good stuff because it’s already suffocating when people are posting 10 times about a dogshit solution… I don’t feel like it’s needed to pile on unless there’s incorrect analysis or anything like that there’s nothing wrong with being an optimist. there’s already enough pessimistic viewpoints
  20. brooklynwx99
    call me a weenie all you want… I’m not going to throw in the towel 8 days out when a major ENS has that solution. no fucking way
  21. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks great. if we’re gonna talk about how bad the new data is, we have to use all of it. this leans towards a much more favorable solution and shows why it’s foolish to totally burn the house down
  22. brooklynwx99
    also, I don’t need anyone acting like they “saw this coming” for any reason other than pessimism because a) the mood was near ecstatic like 12 hours ago and b) we are eight days out! things will change! christ.
  23. brooklynwx99
    telling people not to completely abandon multiple days’ worth of thinking because of like 3 OP runs is weenie-ish? ok dude. sometimes you have to stick to your guns a bit and let the cards fall further. that’s how forecasting works
  24. brooklynwx99
    dude, i have poo poo’d half the damn winter. I’m also not going to completely shift my thinking in 12 hours from what i’ve been thinking over the last 5 days. if we’re still here on Sunday, yeah, but there’s value in sticking to things a bit and not being so reactionary
  25. brooklynwx99
    throw in the towel at 8 days if you want, but don’t come back if things become more favorable. there are going to be many changes
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