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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    I agree. if we don’t get the block, we’re screwed. if we do, we could be in for a nice period due to the confluence i think it’s kinda all or nothing. the scenario where the block links up with SE ridging isn’t too much of a concern of mine
  2. brooklynwx99
    that would literally spit out a KU 75% of the time
  3. brooklynwx99
    i’m not sure how “real” that SE ridge on the mean is. most of the members that do have a legit SE ridge have no blocking. I think it might be skewing things a bit a few members link the block and the SE ridge, but most force a big 50/50 and/or a trough over the EC… basically the classic response to a west based block
  4. brooklynwx99
    around half of the members do have a SE ridge, but this is mainly from a lack of blocking, and this is making it look like we’d have more of a SE ridge than we would if we had a legit block if we end up getting one, we’d likely see the typical response from it, not a SE ridge
  5. brooklynwx99
    I’m not sure how “real” that SE ridge on the mean is. most of the members that do have a legit SE ridge have no blocking. I think it might be skewing things a bit a few members link the block and the SE ridge, but most force a big 50/50 or a trough over the EC… basically the classic response to a west based block
  6. brooklynwx99
    damn, this is the strongest we’ve seen the -NAO yet. some members likely have a legit west-based block here
  7. brooklynwx99
    Feb 2021 redux and then another blizzard immediately after. the weeniest of weenie runs lmao
  8. brooklynwx99
    Feb 2021 redux to a T lmao
  9. brooklynwx99
    not sure if I've prayed harder for anything more in my life
  10. brooklynwx99
    I get what you mean. I'm not getting excited by any of it, though. just noting that there may be some changes due to the SSW and potential blocking as a result I think it's worth mentioning possible changes
  11. brooklynwx99
    I mean, guidance is guidance regardless of how the winter has gone so far. it's not very wise to just ignore it I get the frustration, but persistence is always genius until it's wrong at the worst time
  12. brooklynwx99
    but yeah, they're persistently blocky. -PNA remains, but the -NAO becomes central-based. FWIW obviously, but this evolution has been showing up for a couple weeks now I'm inclined to believe it's legit given that the ensembles are showing the -NAO consistently
  13. brooklynwx99
    nah, even if they look good we should assume they'll look bad later wink wink
  14. brooklynwx99
    yup, blocking builds in later on, likely due to the SSW, and the pattern becomes good for overrunning with the persistent 50/50 showing up
  15. brooklynwx99
    EPS and GEFS have a significant 50/50 low in place
  16. brooklynwx99
    nice to see the EPS also build the -NAO at the end of the run. keeps negative anomalies over the 50/50 region and off the EC. makes sense given the SSW would be an active overrunning pattern with a good amount of cold air
  17. brooklynwx99
    canceling winter on Feb 16th in southern VT is grounds for a therapy session
  18. brooklynwx99
    still nice to see the -NAO signal strengthen and promote a trough in the 50/50 region. would help lead to overrunning, and hopefully we can see it trend stronger as we move up in time... that's what seems to be happening, anyway
  19. brooklynwx99
    I'm really not sure. it is weird, though this is a composite of all east-based and basin-wide weak to moderate Ninos, though. just give us this and we'll all be happy. the central based ones are even better, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. better to assume east-based as of now
  20. brooklynwx99
    I doubt it'll be strong however, this is a composite of all weak to moderate east-based and basin-wide Ninos. still a complete departure from what we've been seeing. just give me a damn Nino haha
  21. brooklynwx99
    ya know, I've been kinda thinking about it, but I'd imagine that once the tropical forcing shifts east with a Nino, you'd expect to see all of these roided out Aleutian ridges over AK and the WC. and as a result, the cutoffs that we've been seeing over the Rockies would be diving into the Plains and Midwest like literally shift everything 500 miles upstream and we're getting crushed
  22. brooklynwx99
    at least we should be good for next year?
  23. brooklynwx99
    I can't even tell you how hard I'm pulling for this to pan out just obliterate the Nina
  24. brooklynwx99
    we know
  25. brooklynwx99
    not sure if we're going to get a full wall-to-wall cold winter for a while, but Feb 2021 had KNYC receive almost 30" of snow, and there was highly anomalous cold over much of the country
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