brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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the GEFS also has a legit KU pattern once towards the 10th but we can put that on the backburner for now
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it's really tough to say at this point in time. I'm leaning towards the GEPS/EPS only because they have more confluence, which is what you'd expect with a developing block. this isn't really relevant to you guys, but this has been happening with the Monday system... confluence has been steadily increasing over the last day or so, which is leading to a farther S track not to say that this will happen here, but I would lean towards that rather than a complete lack of confluence
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wow
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there's enough cold air if the SLP runs to the south with all of that confluence over SE Canada
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this is what you want. stout S/W over Ark-La-Tex with lots of confluence over SE Canada
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just a massive signal for a storm of some sort on the 4th
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definitely better. not great, but a big improvement. definitely more similar to 00z than 06z
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improvement on the GEFS... lower heights out ahead of the trough and in SE Canada. should be colder
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I would consider this a general improvement to the height field over SE Canada. OP runs gonna OP run this cuts because the GFS phases with the NS vort in MN/IA. if that vort kicks ahead and interacts with the ULL in SE Canada, this would be much farther S. really no way to tell with that kind of stuff at this range
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yeah, climo won't matter as much when you have cross-polar flow like that. you can snow until the 20th to the coast with that look. the 10-20th period does look very good, but we'll see if we can cash in on the 4th beforehand. tons of time to go
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seems to me like it's being inconsistent. it flip-flopped between 18, 00, and 06z. doesn't inspire much confidence, IMO I can guarantee if the OP is less amped at 12z it will follow lock-step. it's not a good ensemble for illustrating spread. the EPS is easily the best for that. not to say that it's wrong or anything... we can get an inland runner, but it's just been making big shifts on a whim
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luckily the GEFS is underdispersive, so it'll follow the OP nine times out of 10. not surprising that it's quite rainy
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I'll take this at 8 days out. very dynamic solution with hints of confluence and there's cold air around
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LMAO
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I wouldn't say that... the ECMWF is suppressed
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the thing with ensemble mean temps is that much of the members that show snow will probably be between 28 - 34, but the ones that cut and show rain can be like 50 - 60 degrees, so temps are prone to being skewed high. the 500mb and track of the SLPs looked great, though
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this is pretty nice for the 4th. the initial wave establishes some confluence over the NE so that it's harder for the main wave to cut main wave tracks underneath. should look good snowfall wise and temp wise. absolute ton of moisture with this thing as well
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main wave tracks underneath. should look good snowfall wise and temp wise. absolute ton of moisture with this thing as well
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this is pretty nice for the 4th. the initial wave establishes some confluence over the NE so that it's harder for the main wave to cut
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ENS are much improved overall for the 3/4 threat. lower heights over the E US seems to be the theme
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not gonna lie, the ENS look great so far. the OP runs are cool and all, and their solutions aren’t ridiculous or anything, but the ENS improving holds way more weight at this range
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GEPS also much improved. way lower heights over the E US
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the GEFS actually has lower heights in the E US before the wave arrives, unlike the OP
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i’ll take it. at this range I just wanna see a strong storm consistently showing up if it was perfect people would be saying “well you don’t wanna be in the bullseye 8 days out” so you can never truly win at this range
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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
brooklynwx99 replied to George001's topic in New England
no, not really, but it's 4-5 days away. confluence is always a bear for modeling so we'll see where it goes
