brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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it's more the Arctic becoming more favorable than the Pacific. I expect that to continue to not look good
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this is so exhausting but whatever. anything good will probably have to wait until the end of the month into March
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yeah I agree with the other mets. I apologize that late December didn’t work out, but that longwave pattern deserved some honking and it didn’t work out. it happens. does it suck? hell yeah, I’m just as frustrated as anyone else, believe me and I generally try and include caveats. I don’t think I’ve said that anything wintry was going to happen all winter… just discussing possibilities that were quite a ways out since there’s not much else to talk about. usually filled with a lot of IFs and BUTs and MAYBEs. I’m not going to act as if guidance looks horrible when it doesn’t, or not discuss a potential threat at days 7-10 if it bears merit
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no, we're supposed to be pessimistic all the time because the guidance is always wrong, no matter what
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that would literally change the entire complexion of the pattern, you dolt
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you are a miserable human being
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i mean, yes, there is a -PNA here, but this pattern is very active and has a lot of cold air. -NAO nosing in there keeping the 50/50 confluence close as well. great overrunning pattern verbatim I think this look would work down into NJ as well, obviously for NE. the main thing that makes me optimistic is that all of the cold air is in NA instead on the other side of the globe, which was a huge problem in January
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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
yeah there will be nothing until the 23rd, which is also a maybe. IMO anything before like the 26th or so is gravy. the -NAO looks a bit more real, at least, which is when things would get more interesting for everyone. it's moving up in time and is showing up on OP runs and ensembles -
yeah anything before the 25th or so is gravy IMO. the real chances would come once the -NAO develops, which is looking a bit more likely since it's moving up in time
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true. March can be prolific, though. way more of a winter month than December, as much as many would hate to admit
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anything before March 1st is a bonus anyway before any blocking that does occur gets going. that's when the ceiling gets raised it's obviously not a guarantee, but it's showing up more on OP runs and ensembles and moving forward in time the effects of the SSW will also downwell easily to 50mb and possibly to 100mb... this has a good chance of coupling IMO. might also be why ensembles are getting blockier towards March
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no changes
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yeah because of one GFS OP run
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nobody said it looks great. there are threats inside of day 10 now that may or may not pan out. that's all
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persistence is always genius until it's completely wrong when you need it to be right the most
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personally, I would wait until March is done with. it looks like we could have a nice stretch, which is what I would remember this winter for, IMO
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nah, I would generally agree. if the pre-Christmas wave was weaker or the third wave was like 12-24 hours quicker, it would have been a different story, but alas
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11 of the last 35 winters have had over 40" of snow. that's not really true here. variance is just increasing, not the likelihood of a winter of 35-40"+
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this is a good look for an overrunning threat next week, though. broad LP over the midsection of the country with strong HP nosing into SE Canada to establish a good antecedent airmass. the 50/50 signal is also quite strong, which would help lock in any HP that's north of us
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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
lmao winter is coming back. give it a week and enjoy the warmth while you can -
lmao it was absolutely not a bad pattern. the warm ocean waters had nothing to do with why that system before Christmas cut. the TPV dove a bit too far west... the pattern was still developing at the time if you bring the wave that was responsible for that storm down from Canada a day later, we all get smoked. it was just bad luck. that's all you can say... would be impossible to make that kind of statement more than 5ish days in advance and the third wave went OTS because it came in a day too late and the ridge out west collapsed. again, that all comes down to chaos and not how good or bad the overall synoptic pattern is. we easily could have gotten hit by both
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GFS has another significant storm. go figure, look at that 50/50! this might be the best OP run we’ve seen all winter just goes to show that a -PNA isn’t as much of a problem late-season when you have Atlantic help
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CMC is amazing. this is what happens when you have a strong S/W run into confluence. lots of cold air in place and the energy is forced to go S instead of cut such a strong thermal gradient, too. you can get heavy precip based off of that alone
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GFS has the Wednesday wave quicker… ends up as a nice overrunning event for much of the area
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-PNAs in March aren't nearly as bad as they are in December, especially when a -NAO is involved
