brooklynwx99
-
Posts
5,637 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by brooklynwx99
-
nobody said it looks great. there are threats inside of day 10 now that may or may not pan out. that's all
-
persistence is always genius until it's completely wrong when you need it to be right the most
-
personally, I would wait until March is done with. it looks like we could have a nice stretch, which is what I would remember this winter for, IMO
-
nah, I would generally agree. if the pre-Christmas wave was weaker or the third wave was like 12-24 hours quicker, it would have been a different story, but alas
-
11 of the last 35 winters have had over 40" of snow. that's not really true here. variance is just increasing, not the likelihood of a winter of 35-40"+
-
this is a good look for an overrunning threat next week, though. broad LP over the midsection of the country with strong HP nosing into SE Canada to establish a good antecedent airmass. the 50/50 signal is also quite strong, which would help lock in any HP that's north of us
-
Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
lmao winter is coming back. give it a week and enjoy the warmth while you can -
lmao it was absolutely not a bad pattern. the warm ocean waters had nothing to do with why that system before Christmas cut. the TPV dove a bit too far west... the pattern was still developing at the time if you bring the wave that was responsible for that storm down from Canada a day later, we all get smoked. it was just bad luck. that's all you can say... would be impossible to make that kind of statement more than 5ish days in advance and the third wave went OTS because it came in a day too late and the ridge out west collapsed. again, that all comes down to chaos and not how good or bad the overall synoptic pattern is. we easily could have gotten hit by both
-
GFS has another significant storm. go figure, look at that 50/50! this might be the best OP run we’ve seen all winter just goes to show that a -PNA isn’t as much of a problem late-season when you have Atlantic help
-
CMC is amazing. this is what happens when you have a strong S/W run into confluence. lots of cold air in place and the energy is forced to go S instead of cut such a strong thermal gradient, too. you can get heavy precip based off of that alone
-
GFS has the Wednesday wave quicker… ends up as a nice overrunning event for much of the area
-
-PNAs in March aren't nearly as bad as they are in December, especially when a -NAO is involved
-
persistence is always genius until it's completely wrong. the SSW might just be the catalyst for change by early March, and there are indications that we can be tracking a threat or two before the -NAO really gets going, mainly around the 22-24th
-
yup, and then once we get into the first week of March, there's a higher risk for retrograding blocking that increases the chance for more traditional coastals. that signal has been growing stronger with time, too... it likely begins to retrograde around the 1st or so. we could have a pretty fun time from like the 22-24th through mid-March as a result
-
it's going to be very difficult for storms to cut with deep negative anomalies over the 50/50 region. this would favor overrunning events and SWFEs that begin cold even if they do "cut" you're likely to get snow on the front end anyway
-
who has done this?
-
it wasn't snide. there isn't exactly a need to follow a study verbatim when we can see the effects of the SSW starting to show up by the end of the month on ensembles. we could easily enter into a -NAO regime by the start of March, not mid-late March there are also threats beforehand later next week... I feel like you're ignoring those points for whatever reason. persistence is probably going to be the downfall of many forecasts over the coming couple of weeks
-
I don't think it would even rain for much of NE. 500mb flow is WNW at that point, so I don't think any more latitude would be gained and the system would shear out would probably be a thump and then light snow as the system slides E
-
why look at the tweets from a pioneer of SPV science when you can talk about 16-18 year old weenies with Twitter fingers?
-
nice to see a signal for legit blocking and a 50/50 to boot. even though the system on the ECMWF looks like it's going to torch, all of the entrenched HP over the top keeps us cold and leads to a nice front-end thump. this is something we really haven't seen all winter the 22-24th remains our first threat of this period, and blocking seems to become more of a factor at the end of the month
-
nice to see a signal for legit blocking and a 50/50 to boot. even though the system on the ECMWF looks like it's going to torch, all of the entrenched HP over the top keeps us cold and leads to a nice front-end thump. this is something we really haven't seen all winter the 22-24th remains our first threat of this period, and blocking seems to become more of a factor at the end of the month
-
I agree. even though there is a SE ridge trying to poke N, the greatest negative anomalies are through Nova Scotia into the 50/50 region, which tells me that there's going to be a lot of confluence. would be difficult to get no wintry weather even if storms cut into the Great Lakes. lots of HP over the top
-
it's February in a La Nina. this is not surprising a -PNA/-NAO is also a much better mix in late February into March than it is in December due to the shorter wavelengths if the -NAO doesn't form, we torch. if it does, it could be a prolific period. no real way to tell as of now, but I'm slightly favoring a -NAO due to the SPV impacts. they do increase the chance of Greenland blocking
-
yeah the thing with this potential pattern is that even though the SLP does run into the GL, you have a ton of HP in SE Canada due to the -NAO. the blocking helps keep the cold air locked in enough to lead to a nice front-end thump enough blocking and the SLP slips underneath entirely
-
Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
it seems like the clipper midweek next week may provide the first wave break that leads to blocking later on in the run. this is something that we want to monitor... if this continues to trend stronger or even remain the same, it will make it much easier for a -NAO to form the 12z GFS looks to be doing the same FWIW
