Jump to content

brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,651

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    persistence is always genius until it's completely wrong. the SSW might just be the catalyst for change by early March, and there are indications that we can be tracking a threat or two before the -NAO really gets going, mainly around the 22-24th
  2. brooklynwx99
    yup, and then once we get into the first week of March, there's a higher risk for retrograding blocking that increases the chance for more traditional coastals. that signal has been growing stronger with time, too... it likely begins to retrograde around the 1st or so. we could have a pretty fun time from like the 22-24th through mid-March as a result
  3. brooklynwx99
    it's going to be very difficult for storms to cut with deep negative anomalies over the 50/50 region. this would favor overrunning events and SWFEs that begin cold even if they do "cut" you're likely to get snow on the front end anyway
  4. brooklynwx99
    who has done this?
  5. brooklynwx99
    it wasn't snide. there isn't exactly a need to follow a study verbatim when we can see the effects of the SSW starting to show up by the end of the month on ensembles. we could easily enter into a -NAO regime by the start of March, not mid-late March there are also threats beforehand later next week... I feel like you're ignoring those points for whatever reason. persistence is probably going to be the downfall of many forecasts over the coming couple of weeks
  6. brooklynwx99
    I don't think it would even rain for much of NE. 500mb flow is WNW at that point, so I don't think any more latitude would be gained and the system would shear out would probably be a thump and then light snow as the system slides E
  7. brooklynwx99
    why look at the tweets from a pioneer of SPV science when you can talk about 16-18 year old weenies with Twitter fingers?
  8. brooklynwx99
    nice to see a signal for legit blocking and a 50/50 to boot. even though the system on the ECMWF looks like it's going to torch, all of the entrenched HP over the top keeps us cold and leads to a nice front-end thump. this is something we really haven't seen all winter the 22-24th remains our first threat of this period, and blocking seems to become more of a factor at the end of the month
  9. brooklynwx99
    nice to see a signal for legit blocking and a 50/50 to boot. even though the system on the ECMWF looks like it's going to torch, all of the entrenched HP over the top keeps us cold and leads to a nice front-end thump. this is something we really haven't seen all winter the 22-24th remains our first threat of this period, and blocking seems to become more of a factor at the end of the month
  10. brooklynwx99
    I agree. even though there is a SE ridge trying to poke N, the greatest negative anomalies are through Nova Scotia into the 50/50 region, which tells me that there's going to be a lot of confluence. would be difficult to get no wintry weather even if storms cut into the Great Lakes. lots of HP over the top
  11. brooklynwx99
    it's February in a La Nina. this is not surprising a -PNA/-NAO is also a much better mix in late February into March than it is in December due to the shorter wavelengths if the -NAO doesn't form, we torch. if it does, it could be a prolific period. no real way to tell as of now, but I'm slightly favoring a -NAO due to the SPV impacts. they do increase the chance of Greenland blocking
  12. brooklynwx99
    yeah the thing with this potential pattern is that even though the SLP does run into the GL, you have a ton of HP in SE Canada due to the -NAO. the blocking helps keep the cold air locked in enough to lead to a nice front-end thump enough blocking and the SLP slips underneath entirely
  13. brooklynwx99
    it seems like the clipper midweek next week may provide the first wave break that leads to blocking later on in the run. this is something that we want to monitor... if this continues to trend stronger or even remain the same, it will make it much easier for a -NAO to form the 12z GFS looks to be doing the same FWIW
  14. brooklynwx99
    it seems like the clipper midweek next week may provide the first wave break that leads to blocking later on in the run. this is something that we want to monitor... if this continues to trend stronger or even remain the same, it will make it much easier for a -NAO to form the 12z GFS looks to be doing the same FWIW
  15. brooklynwx99
    a -PNA also isn't nearly as much of an issue in March as it is in December due to the shorter wavelengths. a late-season -PNA/-NAO can be prolific I do want to see the -NAO get solidly inside of 10 days, but I would favor it to happen based on the obliterated SPV down to 50mb. it's obviously not a guarantee at all, but it increases the likelihood
  16. brooklynwx99
    10 of the last 35 winters have also had more than 40" of snow, so I'm not really sure what the concern is here. variance is increasing, but we're going to get our fair share of great winters. just going to have to take them with the crap ones
  17. brooklynwx99
    yeah, not gonna lie, I’m getting cautiously optimistic. I want to see the -NAO at within 10 days, first of all, but I think the first 20 days of March could be quite fun before climo becomes problematic
  18. brooklynwx99
    a -PNA isn’t nearly as much of an annoyance in March due to shorter wavelengths. a -PNA/-NAO late in the year can be quite good as long as the PNA isn’t like -5 sigma the -PNA would provide lots of shortwaves and the -NAO would provide a 50/50 that would keep things from cutting. they can be pretty great if you do get that semipermanent 50/50
  19. brooklynwx99
    both the CMC and GFS have the day 8-10 signal as a strong southern stream wave runs into confluence from the TPV in SE Canada. this is probably our best threat in a while
  20. brooklynwx99
    it’s pretty refreshing to see a 50/50 feature be the deepest anomaly in NA. along with the SSW, it helps me think the blocking signal is a bit more legit with the dipole
  21. brooklynwx99
    I could see us getting blitzed in the same way that the West has once we get a legit +ENSO event and the tropical forcing shifts eastward. wouldn't make sense to think otherwise. the last time we had a legit El Nino, we had 30" in 2 days, and there was 2013-14 and 2009-10 the band is going to snap back the other way and it's going to be great. not happening this year, of course. hopefully next!
  22. brooklynwx99
    I don't know of anyone that is actually thinking that besides 15 year olds on twitter I would be quite surprised if we didn't see a legit -NAO spell at some point in early-mid March, though
  23. brooklynwx99
    i would say so. we pray for this, as we’d definitely get some events with this kind of pattern. it’s relentless verbatim SSWEs are unpredictable and blocking is obviously no guarantee, but I would favor it over keeping the status quo with an event of this magnitude
  24. brooklynwx99
    weeklies are kind of ridiculous… locked and loaded throughout the run. every member has a SSW that occurs by the 16th as some have already mentioned, I am skeptical about the effects of the SSW, as models are notoriously horrible with tropospheric effects. however, given the strength of the SSW, I would be more inclined to see a switch to a blocky pattern like this rather than keeping with the status quo
  25. brooklynwx99
    gets better, actually. locked and loaded throughout the run. every member has a SSW that occurs by the 16th as some have already mentioned, I am skeptical about the effects of the SSW, as models are notoriously horrible with tropospheric effects. however, given the strength of the SSW, I would be more inclined to see a switch to a blocky pattern like this rather than keeping with the status quo
×
×
  • Create New...