brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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yeah, it's not like ensemble forecasting isn't the most powerful medium to long range forecasting tool we have instead, we should use persistence and outdated MJO plots. i don't even know why I got a degree!
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give me an actual meteorological reason that you know that they'll be rain besides the fact that it's been warm so far this month I never said they they would 100% be snow, or even that it's likely that they're snow just that the TPV has a chance of pressing S and can deliver confluence ahead of a southern stream wave, leading to an overrunning event, and that's what the ensembles may be picking up on. not that crazy of an idea
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getting too stressed about things that are completely out of your control is a recipe for disaster, and the weather is a prime example it's better to take the good when it comes and to distract yourself when things get crappy, you just gotta accept it. nothing you can do
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how do you know that they'll be rain though? the boundary could easily set up south towards the MA if there's a deep enough cold press from the TPV. this is what some of the ensemble members are presenting as a possibility
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idk, the ensemble means look as good for snowfall as they have all winter, pretty much this is quite impressive at this range. shows that modeling is beginning to pick up on events with a decent amount of agreement
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that's a 10 day mean though... it wouldn't be able to pick up the transient arctic cold that a TPV displacement would bring
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I think that timeframe poses a legit overrunning threat with the TPV displaced like that and southern stream waves running underneath
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I'm pretty confident that you guys will see legit events through the first week of February. these means are impressive
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EPS still pretty solid for midweek next week
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If you want a front end thump before a change to rain, that's what you want I think everyone would take that at this point -
GEFS is much improved with the confluence for midweek next week
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hey, I still think this is the main window. TPV drops down and some SS vort leads to an overrunning event
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GFS is trending towards more confluence, which helps for a thump scenario
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decent trend in SE Canada though. the more confluence, the better would be tough to get anything more than a thump though
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a beatdown is a pretty tame way to put it. I can't really remember the last time I've seen a disruption like this from extended ensembles. the SPV is gone here obviously this stuff is very mercurial, but it's worth keeping an eye on for late winter shenanigans. in the meantime, we can focus on stuff through the first week of February
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no changes
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CMC ENS agree with the stronger confluence
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not just a thump lmao probably a straight up Miller B
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confluence stronger on the CMC for the second storm. likely a good thump here
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yup, stronger confluence
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slight change here lmao
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I get that pessimism reigns right now, but this is plenty cold. if we were as cold as Canada, it would be suppressive
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i highly doubt that. below average? seems like a lock tho
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if we are going to win in this pattern, the 18z GFS is how you'd do it TPV drops down, establishes a very cold antecedent airmass, and a SS wave clashes with it and leads to significant overrunning snowfall
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they do have blocking returning that's likely associated with a disruption of the SPV or even a SSW. I would never count on something like this, but it's certainly plausible. weakened SPVs certainly make it easier to disrupt the TPV. it's a wildcard. @40/70 Benchmark has also mentioned this these blocking events are often preceded by strong SE ridging, which is what we'll be seeing for the first half of Feb, most likely
