brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
the favorable period really begins in February when the TPV gets displaced and allows waves to track underneath it. big overrunning signal here -
timing a shortwave at more than 5 days out is pretty much impossible, and the factors that lead to snow on the coastal plain generally come down to luck, this isn't New England, we need things to break right the blocking this year was actually more anomalous. I'm just saying it's a matter of bad luck because you can't determine exactly where it's going to set up and how it'll impact the pattern more than like 5 days out. it's just not possible
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not really sure. it's probably just bad luck... if the shortwave that led to the cutter came in a day later, it would have been a huge coastal storm, but the ridge was too far W and then the follow up wave was a day too late and the ridge broke down out west. just really bad timing, could have been a very good stretch. luck is always in our winters here
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if you're talking about late December, that pattern deserved to be hyped up. it was pretty awful luck that the period didn't produce, what can you do though sometimes even the 9/10 patterns fail. December 2010 could have easily gone the same way, but we got lucky with BDB
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it couldn't be because we've had the most productive snow period over the last 15 years ever, no? Islip has averaged more than State College lmao regression to the mean sucks
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well, this place is chipper as always
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this could be a really nice period. lots of cold air available and very active with the baroclinic zone to the south
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this could be a really nice period. lots of cold air available and very active with the baroclinic zone to the south
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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
this could be a really nice period. lots of available cold and very active with the baroclinic zone to the south -
disruptions can be as useful as SSWs in terms of making blocking a bit more easy to obtain
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it looks like we’re seeing the 700mb vort tick farther W, leading to a better chance for legit wraparound precip
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yeah, it's not like ensemble forecasting isn't the most powerful medium to long range forecasting tool we have instead, we should use persistence and outdated MJO plots. i don't even know why I got a degree!
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give me an actual meteorological reason that you know that they'll be rain besides the fact that it's been warm so far this month I never said they they would 100% be snow, or even that it's likely that they're snow just that the TPV has a chance of pressing S and can deliver confluence ahead of a southern stream wave, leading to an overrunning event, and that's what the ensembles may be picking up on. not that crazy of an idea
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getting too stressed about things that are completely out of your control is a recipe for disaster, and the weather is a prime example it's better to take the good when it comes and to distract yourself when things get crappy, you just gotta accept it. nothing you can do
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how do you know that they'll be rain though? the boundary could easily set up south towards the MA if there's a deep enough cold press from the TPV. this is what some of the ensemble members are presenting as a possibility
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idk, the ensemble means look as good for snowfall as they have all winter, pretty much this is quite impressive at this range. shows that modeling is beginning to pick up on events with a decent amount of agreement
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that's a 10 day mean though... it wouldn't be able to pick up the transient arctic cold that a TPV displacement would bring
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I think that timeframe poses a legit overrunning threat with the TPV displaced like that and southern stream waves running underneath
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I'm pretty confident that you guys will see legit events through the first week of February. these means are impressive
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EPS still pretty solid for midweek next week
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If you want a front end thump before a change to rain, that's what you want I think everyone would take that at this point
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GEFS is much improved with the confluence for midweek next week
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hey, I still think this is the main window. TPV drops down and some SS vort leads to an overrunning event
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GFS is trending towards more confluence, which helps for a thump scenario
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decent trend in SE Canada though. the more confluence, the better would be tough to get anything more than a thump though
