brooklynwx99

that pattern would probably deliver a huge overrunning event soon, though. tons of cold, and the low off the coast drags the boundary down, energy in S CA ejects, and bang I wouldn't get too stressed about this run. that ULL in Baja will always lead to a SE ridge, btw. it's like a -4 to -5 sigma anomaly shoving tropical air into the E US, would've popped a ridge here in like 1890. not going to happen like that either way, not really worried about it

it's also very important to note that when dealing with a -EPO pattern that features lots of low level cold, heights can be very misleading using the 12z GFS OP as an example, there's a huge mid level ridge centered over the NE US, absolute torch, right? nope! not even close. there's a ton of low level cold air in SE Canada with highs in the teens and 20s in New England. a WSW level thump then ensues keep this in mind when people freak out about weak SE ridges or WARs in the extended on the means. it tells you absolutely nothing about the low levels. the heights are only high because it's torching at like 500-700mb when it's insignificant to precip type

the 12z GFS OP drops the AO to like -7, the NAO to like -5, and the EPO to like -3 and would deliver a sick overrunning pattern. i'll take it

i will say, if we keep seeing a legit -EPO/-AO/-NAO ridge bridge, it's game on. the ensembles have been hinting at the possibility of it seems like the -EPO/-AO is relatively high probability at this point, which would dislodge lots of cold. the -NAO would put it over the top by keeping cutters to a minimum

what a bonkers run. this is a ridiculous overrunning pattern all day 16 OP caveats applying, obviously

it's also very important to note that when dealing with -EPO pattern that feature lots of low level cold, heights can be very misleading using the 12z GFS OP as an example, there's a huge mid level ridge centered over the NE US, absolute torch, right? nope! not even close. there's a ton of low level cold air in SE Canada with highs in the teens and 20s in New England. a WSW level thump then ensues keep this in mind when people freak out about weak SE ridges or WARs in the extended on the means. it tells you absolutely nothing about the low levels. the heights are only high because it's torching at like 500-700mb when it's insignificant to precip type

if we're going to talk about day 10+ OP runs... it's easy to see where this is going. ridge bridge developing and the arctic floodgates are about to open toaster bath, sign me up. that's like a -6 AO

it literally did on the last run. just not for you

it's the PSU E-wall, it's really useful for looking at the GEFS and GEPS indies http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ewallmref.html

the 06z GEFS has a really interesting pattern evolution, as the strong -AO ends up dislodging the TPV into Canada. there are also hints of a -NAO developing, which would help greatly with this kind of -EPO setup. a decent handful of members have a ridge bridge between the potential -NAO and -EPO, which would be lights out. there's even some split flow with the weak troughing over the SW US so, even though the GEFS has some initial weak SE ridging as the pattern establishes itself, which often happens, the pattern quickly becomes very cold and pretty damn favorable north of Philly, but it certainly can work for you guys if the boundary pushed far enough S. I like seeing the signals that the TPV will get displaced and elongated, as we'd have no source region issues at all and HPs will pack a bigger punch... antecedent airmasses are more likely to be favorable as well, and there's semi-permanent confluence where the TPV locates itself: the EPS and GEPS look favorable due to a farther E ridge into the PNA domain. they both manage to keep the SE ridge offshore and the baroclinic zone S. these patterns would provide numerous chances: I do understand the hesitation and even the pessimism given how this winter has gone, believe me. it's been really frustrating. but looking in a vacuum, this has the potential to become a legitimately good pattern with a bit of luck. there is a risk of cutters, but there's a risk in pretty much every pattern outside of Feb 2010. we're likely going to see one around the 22nd or so that establishes the cold airmass, but that's how these types of patterns go moving forward, I want to see the -NAO trend a bit more cohesive. this has been happening, but this would change the pattern into something decent to good into a potentially great one. I also want to see the +PNA ridge tick east or for the cross polar flow to strengthen via the potential cutoff high N of AK. this would "force" cold air east regardless of the PNA, similar to what the GEFS has overall, I still want to wait a bit to see which ensemble suite has the correct evolution, but I'm honestly kind of excited to see where this will go. if the boundary is far enough south, which is certainly possible even without -NAO help (which may show up), then these types of patterns can provide events quickly. regardless, there will be tons of cold air on our side of the globe, and it's a thousand times better than what we've been seeing for the last couple weeks

it's not always a death sentence. the WAR is the main reason why 2013-14 and 2014-15 were so snowy. numerous waves that were OTS 3-5 days out were brought back to the coast and delivered snow because of it if the TPV is sitting overhead, you'll just be cold and dry while the Carolinas get slammed, which is what happened in March 2014

the 06z GEFS has a really interesting pattern evolution, as the strong -AO ends up dislodging the TPV into Canada. there are also hints of a -NAO developing, which would help greatly with this kind of -EPO setup. a decent handful of members have a ridge bridge between the potential -NAO and -EPO, which would be lights out. there's even some split flow with the weak troughing over the SW US so, even though the GEFS has some initial weak SE ridging as the pattern establishes itself, which often happens, the pattern quickly becomes very cold and pretty damn favorable north of Philly. I like seeing the signals that the TPV will get displaced and elongated, as we'd have no source region issues at all and HPs will pack a bigger punch... antecedent airmasses are more likely to be favorable as well, and there's semi-permanent confluence where the TPV locates itself: the EPS and GEPS look favorable due to a farther E ridge into the PNA domain. they both manage to keep the SE ridge offshore and the baroclinic zone S. these patterns would provide numerous chances: I do understand the hesitation and even the pessimism given how this winter has gone, believe me. it's been really frustrating. but looking in a vacuum, this has the potential to become a legitimately good pattern with a bit of luck. there is a risk of cutters, but there's a risk in pretty much every pattern outside of Feb 2010. we're likely going to see one around the 22nd or so that establishes the cold airmass, but that's how these types of patterns go moving forward, I want to see the -NAO trend a bit more cohesive. this has been happening, but this would change the pattern into something decent to good into a potentially great one. I also want to see the +PNA ridge tick east or for the cross polar flow to strengthen via the potential cutoff high N of AK. this would "force" cold air east regardless of the PNA, similar to what the GEFS has overall, I still want to wait a bit to see which ensemble suite has the correct evolution, but I'm honestly kind of excited to see where this will go. if the boundary is far enough south, which is certainly possible even without -NAO help (which may show up), then these types of patterns can provide events quickly. regardless, there will be tons of cold air on our side of the globe, and it's a thousand times better than what we've been seeing for the last couple weeks

it’ll be tough for ensemble means to do that until a shortwave is identified, which is absolute hell in this type of pattern

it’s moving up in time. this doesn’t seem like a head fake

EPS looks really nice too

i just like seeing the cross polar flow. we would at least get Canada ice cold with this kind of look, and there are hints of transient blocking too with the ridging over eastern Europe. solid -AO will definitely help displace the TPV GEFS might have a SE ridge on the mean, but there will be lots of cold air around in an active pattern. the GEPS is very nice and the EPS is coming out great too

@SnowenOutThere here are the GEFS individual members at 360 hours. notice the spread on these. some are ice cold with some -NAOs, some are torches, and most lie somewhere in between. most of these are serviceable, though, and most have a ridge in AK to get cold air into Canada and the US, which is the most important part a decent portion of those actually have strong Scandinavian ridging, which is a precursor to -NAOs

it’s just that the 500mb maps are also a mean. there is likely a lot of variation within each of the individual members, and this upcoming pattern is a huge improvement due to lots of available cold in Canada so, there is the potential for snow if we can get the boundary far enough south. pretty big if, but it’s 100 times better than the pattern we have now… the upcoming pattern at least has a legit connection to Siberia. both the 12z GEFS and GEPS agree on that. there are also some hints of transient blocking

boundary waves with lots of available cold in Canada is how you guys cashed in during March 2015, though it’s definitely possible to score in that kind of pattern. just need to hope there’s a good cold press, which is certainly possible here

snowfall means at range are somewhat useful for determining what periods have increased snowfall potential. was just posting to show that there is still decent potential late in the month due to the all the cold air on this side of the globe it’s not rocket science. there isn’t much else to post anyway, all of this stuff is like 10 days away

ironically, this is the snowiest GEFS run that we’ve seen in a while

honestly, with that being the case, it is really nice seeing Canada get some legit Arctic air involved. this would produce at some point once the trough gets kicked east there's a lot more ways to win when you have fresh cold air

no you wouldn't be

lmao ninja’d

it’s a 5 day average i’m just happy to see legit cross polar flow. i’m not that worried about the ridge axis… Feb 2015 had the axis along the WC with a raging +NAO and that worked wonders pretty much all patterns run the risk for cutters, but i will definitely take my chances with what all of the ensembles are agreeing upon