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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. yeah this is pretty solid, especially for you guys. PV in Hudson Bay, low heights in the 50/50 region, -EPO, and some hints of blocking the -PNA likely flexes the SE ridge at times, but there's a lot of cold air in North America lights out though!!!!!!!!!!! super ugly!!!!!!
  2. he’s always been pompous af. even earlier in the year he said the pattern was unbelievable. like a SE US KU pattern. and slithered back on it
  3. some troughing over CA in these patterns isn’t bad, but that’s just overwhelming
  4. part of it is climate change, another part of it is just shit luck in a Nina-dominated stretch. that’s really it there’s gonna be more >30” and <10” winters at BWI with less winters actually near average. just gotta be able to take the good with the bad
  5. nice black hole over southern CA lmao the GFS has actually been remarkably consistent with this, hopefully it’s wrong but who knows at this point. these ridges have just been orienting themselves horribly since last year
  6. I know what you mean. not really sure why it happens, either. probably a mixture of some bad luck and Nina crap, who knows
  7. EPS is really nice looking too. all major ensembles are in agreement on the -EPO/-AO/-NAO
  8. GEFS is loaded. completely displaces the TPV with a legit -NAO signal to boot a -EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern like this would be quite fun
  9. yeah this is kinda nuts. -NAO signal as well with low heights over Nova Scotia. TPV is completely displaced
  10. it's due to a transient feature that's causing it, though. I wouldn't expect that to happen, and once that ejects, you can get a huge storm. and if it shears, you probably get record cold. that pattern would certainly make the entire CONUS cold, it's just the GFS going off the rails a bit. highly doubt that happens this kind of stuff happens the other way, too. I've seen anomalous 50/50 ULLs keep us at like -10 to -15 at 850 while the rest of the US is a blowtorch
  11. that pattern would probably deliver a huge overrunning event soon, though. tons of cold, and the low off the coast drags the boundary down, energy in S CA ejects, and bang I wouldn't get too stressed about this run. that ULL in Baja will always lead to a SE ridge, btw. it's like a -4 to -5 sigma anomaly shoving tropical air into the E US, would've popped a ridge here in like 1890. not going to happen like that either way, not really worried about it
  12. it's also very important to note that when dealing with a -EPO pattern that features lots of low level cold, heights can be very misleading using the 12z GFS OP as an example, there's a huge mid level ridge centered over the NE US, absolute torch, right? nope! not even close. there's a ton of low level cold air in SE Canada with highs in the teens and 20s in New England. a WSW level thump then ensues keep this in mind when people freak out about weak SE ridges or WARs in the extended on the means. it tells you absolutely nothing about the low levels. the heights are only high because it's torching at like 500-700mb when it's insignificant to precip type
  13. the 12z GFS OP drops the AO to like -7, the NAO to like -5, and the EPO to like -3 and would deliver a sick overrunning pattern. i'll take it
  14. i will say, if we keep seeing a legit -EPO/-AO/-NAO ridge bridge, it's game on. the ensembles have been hinting at the possibility of it seems like the -EPO/-AO is relatively high probability at this point, which would dislodge lots of cold. the -NAO would put it over the top by keeping cutters to a minimum
  15. what a bonkers run. this is a ridiculous overrunning pattern all day 16 OP caveats applying, obviously
  16. it's also very important to note that when dealing with -EPO pattern that feature lots of low level cold, heights can be very misleading using the 12z GFS OP as an example, there's a huge mid level ridge centered over the NE US, absolute torch, right? nope! not even close. there's a ton of low level cold air in SE Canada with highs in the teens and 20s in New England. a WSW level thump then ensues keep this in mind when people freak out about weak SE ridges or WARs in the extended on the means. it tells you absolutely nothing about the low levels. the heights are only high because it's torching at like 500-700mb when it's insignificant to precip type
  17. if we're going to talk about day 10+ OP runs... it's easy to see where this is going. ridge bridge developing and the arctic floodgates are about to open toaster bath, sign me up. that's like a -6 AO
  18. it literally did on the last run. just not for you
  19. it's the PSU E-wall, it's really useful for looking at the GEFS and GEPS indies http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ewallmref.html
  20. the 06z GEFS has a really interesting pattern evolution, as the strong -AO ends up dislodging the TPV into Canada. there are also hints of a -NAO developing, which would help greatly with this kind of -EPO setup. a decent handful of members have a ridge bridge between the potential -NAO and -EPO, which would be lights out. there's even some split flow with the weak troughing over the SW US so, even though the GEFS has some initial weak SE ridging as the pattern establishes itself, which often happens, the pattern quickly becomes very cold and pretty damn favorable north of Philly, but it certainly can work for you guys if the boundary pushed far enough S. I like seeing the signals that the TPV will get displaced and elongated, as we'd have no source region issues at all and HPs will pack a bigger punch... antecedent airmasses are more likely to be favorable as well, and there's semi-permanent confluence where the TPV locates itself: the EPS and GEPS look favorable due to a farther E ridge into the PNA domain. they both manage to keep the SE ridge offshore and the baroclinic zone S. these patterns would provide numerous chances: I do understand the hesitation and even the pessimism given how this winter has gone, believe me. it's been really frustrating. but looking in a vacuum, this has the potential to become a legitimately good pattern with a bit of luck. there is a risk of cutters, but there's a risk in pretty much every pattern outside of Feb 2010. we're likely going to see one around the 22nd or so that establishes the cold airmass, but that's how these types of patterns go moving forward, I want to see the -NAO trend a bit more cohesive. this has been happening, but this would change the pattern into something decent to good into a potentially great one. I also want to see the +PNA ridge tick east or for the cross polar flow to strengthen via the potential cutoff high N of AK. this would "force" cold air east regardless of the PNA, similar to what the GEFS has overall, I still want to wait a bit to see which ensemble suite has the correct evolution, but I'm honestly kind of excited to see where this will go. if the boundary is far enough south, which is certainly possible even without -NAO help (which may show up), then these types of patterns can provide events quickly. regardless, there will be tons of cold air on our side of the globe, and it's a thousand times better than what we've been seeing for the last couple weeks
  21. it's not always a death sentence. the WAR is the main reason why 2013-14 and 2014-15 were so snowy. numerous waves that were OTS 3-5 days out were brought back to the coast and delivered snow because of it if the TPV is sitting overhead, you'll just be cold and dry while the Carolinas get slammed, which is what happened in March 2014
  22. the 06z GEFS has a really interesting pattern evolution, as the strong -AO ends up dislodging the TPV into Canada. there are also hints of a -NAO developing, which would help greatly with this kind of -EPO setup. a decent handful of members have a ridge bridge between the potential -NAO and -EPO, which would be lights out. there's even some split flow with the weak troughing over the SW US so, even though the GEFS has some initial weak SE ridging as the pattern establishes itself, which often happens, the pattern quickly becomes very cold and pretty damn favorable north of Philly. I like seeing the signals that the TPV will get displaced and elongated, as we'd have no source region issues at all and HPs will pack a bigger punch... antecedent airmasses are more likely to be favorable as well, and there's semi-permanent confluence where the TPV locates itself: the EPS and GEPS look favorable due to a farther E ridge into the PNA domain. they both manage to keep the SE ridge offshore and the baroclinic zone S. these patterns would provide numerous chances: I do understand the hesitation and even the pessimism given how this winter has gone, believe me. it's been really frustrating. but looking in a vacuum, this has the potential to become a legitimately good pattern with a bit of luck. there is a risk of cutters, but there's a risk in pretty much every pattern outside of Feb 2010. we're likely going to see one around the 22nd or so that establishes the cold airmass, but that's how these types of patterns go moving forward, I want to see the -NAO trend a bit more cohesive. this has been happening, but this would change the pattern into something decent to good into a potentially great one. I also want to see the +PNA ridge tick east or for the cross polar flow to strengthen via the potential cutoff high N of AK. this would "force" cold air east regardless of the PNA, similar to what the GEFS has overall, I still want to wait a bit to see which ensemble suite has the correct evolution, but I'm honestly kind of excited to see where this will go. if the boundary is far enough south, which is certainly possible even without -NAO help (which may show up), then these types of patterns can provide events quickly. regardless, there will be tons of cold air on our side of the globe, and it's a thousand times better than what we've been seeing for the last couple weeks
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