brooklynwx99

EPS look really good once the jet retracts

ground would be made up quickly if this comes to fruition. this is basically a nino look with the split flow and below average heights in the SE US

ground would be made up quickly if this comes to fruition. this is basically a nino look with the split flow and below average heights in the SE US

bold way to burn one of your five daily posts

we take (even down by me)

pretty consistent trend from the GFS with the 250mb jet too. this will do

i know! it’s thread the needle, but honestly the majority of events are from NYC south. just something that deserves an eye kept on it

this is a bizarre setup, but it might actually work. here, you have amplification of Rockies ridging due to another system strengthening offshore. then, lots of confluence is forced by the TPV swinging over SE Canada, which leads to a cold banana high weird setup, believe me, but there are actually pieces here

this is a bizarre setup, but it might actually work. here, you have amplification of Rockies ridging due to another system strengthening offshore. then, lots of confluence is forced by the TPV swinging over SE Canada, which leads to a cold banana high weird setup, believe me, but there are actually pieces here

this is a bizarre setup, but it might actually work. here, you have amplification of Rockies ridging due to another system strengthening offshore. then, lots of confluence is forced by the TPV swinging over SE Canada, which leads to a cold banana high weird setup, believe me, but there are actually pieces here

@40/70 Benchmark also, for those moderate to strong -ENSO events I made the composite for, here is the mean Pacific jet... it's very retracted and leads to the strong Aleutian ridge compare this to moderate to strong +ENSO events and to what we're going to be seeing: so, yeah. this isn't forced by ENSO, it was forced by an anomalous extratropical mechanism that's going to reverse. not really worried about this stretch right now. we're basically getting super Nino'd to death and it isn't going to last IMO

we're going to see a -EAMT over the next week or so, which would help with a Pacific jet retraction for sure. a strong +EAMT part of what forced the insane -EPO event last week also, it just doesn't really make sense to me. usually, a shit pattern in a -ENSO state is usually from a flat Aleutian ridge that leads to a strong -PNA. even if the ridge is poleward, you're prone to cutters without blocking. this is the type of thing I'm talking about, which I'm sure you're familiar with so, overall, these type of insane jet extensions are usually due to a very strong +ENSO event, which we are certainly not in. I'm not worried about this sticking around for a particularly long time. the forcing mechanism for it is weaning

this is why I don't think this type of bad pattern is sustainable... we're basically getting super Nino'd in a moderate -ENSO. that jet is going to retract and we're going to get a nice +PNA/-EPO when it does

assigning unreasonable expectations to any pattern is a recipe for failure. there are no guarantees with any pattern granted, it still was very disappointing, but counting your chickens before they hatch never works with the weather. too chaotic

given the effect of AGW, I think what we're going to be seeing is a lot more winters like 2016... warm for the most part aside from a major storm in the east (or more) so I could see a decade at BWI with three years at 30-50" and three years under 10" with the winters in the decade cumulatively averaging +3 in temp. just a lot more variance this is kind of what we've already been seeing, even up in NYC. a lot less nickel and dime stuff, but many, many more NESIS ranked storms over the last 20 years. you guys have had some bad luck over the last 5 years or so since 2016, but I think it's more chalked up to that and an unfavorable base state more than anything if we flip back to a 2010-2015 esque base state and it's still not snowy, then we'll know something is wrong. until then, just wait for +ENSO... which should be next year

next three weeks. do you mean 10 days? because pretty much everyone would agree with you there

last winter had a historic blizzard lmao one seems to find a way to happen every year aside from the complete shutouts (2011-12, 2019-20), so no need to can an entire winter this early

the charts are all we have

the pattern will flip around the 10th as the ULL off the WC retrogrades westward towards the Aleutians when the Pacific jet retracts this is well agreed upon by ensembles and it makes sense, so this is a break more than anything else. the hints of Scandinavian ridging also point towards renewed blocking once into the last couple weeks of the month. the -EPO/+PNA would also scour out any residual Pacific air relatively quickly, so there wouldn't be a week or two of delay, especially under peak climo

we are going to torch through the first week of January however, there is increasing confidence that the Pacific jet will retract after this timeframe. this will push the ULL over AK back to the Aleutians, likely allowing for a strong -EPO/+PNA to develop, similar to what we're seeing now. you can actually see the poleward wave breaking at 200mb. pretty good signal blocking isn't showing its hand on the ensembles yet, but blocking in Jan is quite likely given how blocky this month was. the persistent negative anomalies in the Atlantic also point towards its development so, we're going to have a reprieve, but it should be only that. winter may return in earnest around the 10th or so... Arctic flow would make Canada cold very quickly, and we're in peak climo at that point

we are going to torch through the first week of January however, there is increasing confidence that the Pacific jet will retract after this timeframe. this will push the ULL over AK back to the Aleutians, likely allowing for a strong -EPO/+PNA to develop, similar to what we're seeing now. you can actually see the poleward wave breaking at 200mb. pretty good signal blocking isn't showing its hand on the ensembles yet, but blocking in Jan is quite likely given how blocky this month was. the persistent negative anomalies in the Atlantic also point towards its development so, we're going to have a reprieve, but it should be only that. winter may return in earnest around the 10th or so... Arctic flow would make Canada cold very quickly, and we're in peak climo at that point

we are going to torch through the first week of January however, there is increasing confidence that the Pacific jet will retract after this timeframe. this will push the ULL over AK back to the Aleutians, likely allowing for a strong -EPO/+PNA to develop, similar to what we're seeing now. you can actually see the poleward wave breaking at 200mb. pretty good signal blocking isn't showing its hand on the ensembles yet, but blocking in Jan is quite likely given how blocky this month was. the persistent negative anomalies in the Atlantic also point towards its development so, we're going to have a reprieve, but it should be only that. winter may return in earnest around the 10th or so... Arctic flow would make Canada cold very quickly, and we're in peak climo at that point

persistent amplification trend ongoing over the last 8 runs of the GEFS. the trough is ticking westward, too

yeah, I'm not expecting anything here, but I've seen crazier things happen at 4-5 days out we're not getting anything until the week of like Jan 8th, so why not track it haha

just a bit of a trend from the GFS here haha