brooklynwx99

the EPS (and GEPS to a lesser extent) is basically a perfect pattern progression. every synoptic feature is here for a major storm somewhere on the EC around the 10th: highly anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait anomalous -EPO/-WPO to deliver Arctic air into the E US highly anomalous, semi-permanent 50/50 ULL signal for a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Rockies as the PNA trends neutral... likely ending up slightly positive due to the Pacific Rex block I want to see increased ENS support for this progression, mainly from the GEFS, but this is about as high-end of a pattern progression as you can get. compare this to the 7-day preloading composite for NYC's 18"+ storms... there are any of the same pattern features, namely the decaying west-based block and deep 50/50 ULL. this composite applies for you guys, as well. the same pattern is needed for NYC south to see its biggest storms I don't mean to honk this early, but this is the best looking pattern progression since Feb 2021, which was the last classic MA blizzard (unfortunately scraped you guys to the N). many of the same features show up there, as well. it's not a coincidence

sorry for the LR OP run, but this is absolutely absurd

ECMWF is literally showing a HECS setup and there are concerns voiced about the SE ridge. what in God's name

see you next week. I highly doubt it I understand the frustration tho

I would believe that the blocking wouldn't just evaporate into thin air like that after the SPV has been torn to shreds. it usually sticks around into April, even

here's to hoping the EPS is correct, because this is pretty much as good of a look you could have for a high-end storm strong -EPO providing Arctic air, decaying west-based -NAO, stout semi-permanent 50/50, and a strong S/W ejecting out of the west and amplifying underneath the block

here's to hoping the EPS is correct, because this is pretty much as good of a look you could have for a high-end storm strong -EPO providing Arctic air, decaying west-based -NAO, stout semi-permanent 50/50, and a strong S/W ejecting out of the west and amplifying underneath the block

the UKMET is awful with thermals. I wouldn't pay too much attention to its accumulation forecasts in marginal situations. I'd expect 1 - 3" in the city

better than nothing

UKMET made a really nice change with the confluence in SE Canada. probably the most important takeaway from this run

GEFS is improved. weaker vort, but the main change is in the confluence, which is notably stronger and further S over SE Canada leads to a colder tick. not amazing, but it's something

yeah, I liked seeing the initial confluence tick stronger, that's big in this kind of setup

GEFS should improve... weaker vort and slightly better confluence

holy crap

I'm inclined to believe the GFS is in outer space, but let's wait for the ECMWF

crusher

CMC is actually stronger with the confluence. looks like the GFS is on an island so far

CMC is more like the ICON than the GFS so far

the biggest difference between the ICON and GFS is that the ICON breaks a piece of vorticity from the trough and sends it east while the GFS phases it into the trough. which one is correct? who the hell knows, but they are both possible at this point

actually became a lot stronger with the confluence. the GFS probably won't care though and end up cutting to Chicago lmao

much more confluence. it's the most important thing in this setup, and models are going to have fits with it, as per usual. might be one of the hardest things to forecast at range due to the proximity of the TPV this looks great with the potent 500mb low running into strong confluence. would result in heavy precip

nice. big shift south here. hopefully this starts 00z off right

ICON looks like it'll be colder. weaker vort and significantly lower heights downstream due to more confluence

you would think we'd learn after the medium range debacle for the Monday storm doesn't look as good today, but I would not be surprised to see confluence increase again with the blocking finally in place. either way, even with the crappier solutions, a front-end thump is still possible, similar to what the 12z ECMWF OP showed earlier

PDO stands for Pacific Decadal Oscillation