brooklynwx99

this is the difference between the two outcomes. everything after this is gravy the GFS has a much more amplified vort diving out of AK... this means that it travels slower and allows the TPV to get out ahead of it, leading to the two-piece solution the ECMWF has it much flatter, which allows it to catch up and mingle with the TPV, leading to the farther W solution with very little confluence which one is right? there really isn't a way to tell at this point, but we will know in the next 48 hours. I'm sure that we will see some EPS members that amp this up like the GFS and some that flatten it like the ECMWF, leading to considerable spread

this is the difference between the two outcomes. everything after this is gravy the GFS has a much more amplified vort diving out of AK... this means that it travels slower and allows the TPV to get out ahead of it, leading to the two-piece solution the ECMWF has it much flatter, which allows it to catch up and mingle with the TPV, leading to the farther W solution with very little confluence which one is right? there really isn't a way to tell at this point, but we will know in the next 48 hours. I'm sure that we will see some EPS members that amp this up like the GFS and some that flatten it like the ECMWF, leading to considerable spread

the entire longwave pattern is completely different on the GFS and ECMWF. laughable at this range

i mean, I know what he meant, but the indices don't mean anything. it's all in the nuances of the flow weather comes down to luck like 80% of the time. all good patterns do is raise odds, not guarantee anything

wtf is right. what does this even mean

the GEFS has actually gotten stronger with the TPV lobe press compared to 00z

i understand that. we just have to see if those changes are legitimate or if there are other changes in store that’ll help the eventual outcome all I’m personally looking for is a strong system to be consistently modeled somewhere near the coast. the GFS has the thing nearly OTS and the ECMWF cuts it to Buffalo that is the range of outcomes right now, which is pretty common for this time frame

all that matters at this range is that there’s a large system that’s likely to develop. could run along the coast. could go out to sea. could hit the benchmark if people would like to assign unhealthy expectations and emotionally agonize over something 7 days away, then so be it, but it’s best to just sit tight and see what happens at this range

straight up triple phaser. beautiful evolution aloft it's becoming clear that there's a lot of ways to score with this potential system... that's how you know the pattern is good

GFS still shows a nuke. no need to even look at the surface

this is really all you have to see about the EPS. bonkers for this far out

un-freaking-real

Euro has a classic progression. all that really needs to be said here... the potential is through the roof

my god. classic look here for a NYC - BOS crusher, about all you can ask for at this range

ECMWF is making favorable changes at 12z... much stronger and farther E PNA ridging, block is farther W and there's a lot more confluence going under it even if the end result isn't huge, this helps take the cutter off the table

regardless, the EPS will be 10 times more useful at this range. but let's see!

snowiest GEFS run by far, pretty much doubling 12z yesterday. 4-6" on a mean at this range is very rare

not one for snow maps, but 5-7" on an ensemble mean at this range is nuts. basically doubled from 12z yesterday

i get what you mean. I just meant that the favorable pattern is here right when everyone said it would be minus like 2-3 days. lots of people did a great job with that and now we have a system with nuke potential to track

the exact result doesn't even matter that much. all that matters is that this is an absolutely classic look

idk. i think the pattern supports this kind of outcome. we'll see where we're at on Monday but I don't see this vanishing into thin air

i thought the can was being kicked

the OP run verbatim isn’t really the point. seeing a 500mb configuration like that is incredible. it shows up for the largest events

this is classic. not much else to say… God tier run coming

holy shit. here it comes