brooklynwx99

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GEFS continues the trend of more CAD, a weaker bowling ball S/W and lower downstream heights

this is a significant trend at 500mb. makes sense to have a shove S given the anomalous 50/50 and ridging in central Canada this is certainly worth keeping an eye on

GEFS ticks towards a stronger secondary LP again

what exactly am i missing? myself and a bunch of others have been persistent in saying that a favorable pattern would evolve after the 15th or so, got ridiculed for it by people worrying about absolutely nothing, and now everyone that was ridiculing is flipping back to the snow train on a whim. it's weird behavior

I'm favoring redevelopment for this system with a block that strong as well as a strong ULL out in the Atlantic like that... the models should continue to correct. there are already some strong members near the Delmarva that likely deliver from CT northward this deserves watching over the next few days

I'm favoring redevelopment for this system with a block that strong as well as a deep ULL out in the Atlantic like that... the models should continue to correct. there are already some strong members near the Delmarva that likely deliver from CT northward

here, though, we're likely going to see some better transient -NAO spells... those winters have insanely positive +NAOs, so we could see slower evolutions here

we're in for it after that "cutter" mid next week that'll probably just redevelop given the block in Canada and ULL to the east that -EPO ridge into W Canada that builds poleward is drool worthy. this is all moving forward in time, too. there are going to be some high end chances during the latter half of the month

dude

seems like it's been strengthening, as it should with all of the wave breaking going on in the Atlantic. the GFS/GEFS was handling this aspect horrendously recently

really nice to see the EPS maintain some of the WB -NAO blocking, which helps lead to the slight 50/50 signal. it also has the -EPO oriented such that there's ridging into W Canada, which will dump cold farther E and lead to less cutters

holy crap

holy shit

tick tick tick

it tries to cut and gets shunted S by the block... exotic evolution here but it's possible with a block that strong this is also made possible by the 50/50 put in place by Monday's system

soooooo the GFS/GEFS completely whiffed on a 50/50 due to the system on Monday trending a lot more robust this has led to sweeping changes with how the overall pattern will develop later on, and the GEFS is now keying in on a lot more blocking over Greenland and AK. the AK blocking is likely due to the 50/50 as well as the GEFS noticing the effect of the +EAMT and Siberian TPV either way, I still think that we're on track for an exciting period of winter weather after the 15th or so. I see no reason to stray from that as of now. if anything, I've become a lot more confident since yesterday

the GEFS has made pretty massive changes in the last day after it picked up on that 50/50... much more blocking and the Pacific is much improved now that it's picking up on the effect the Siberian TPV and +EAMT

absolutely comical for one model cycle. this is why we were saying not to worry for the 15th onward. the models are adjusting to the favorable base state

the issue is that the GEFS completely whiffed on an anomalous 50/50... this 50/50 aids in the development of blocking, so it's easy to see why the GEFS looked crappy for a while given that it was missing this feature

to put into further perspective how bad of a miss this is, here are the changes by day 10: the stronger 50/50 leads to the cutter getting shunted slightly south, which leads to WAA right into the Davis Strait that amplifies blocking throughout the pole. I think the reason for the GEFS's crappy presentation before was due to the complete mishandling of this feature

this is a pretty spectacular model fail by the GFS in the mid-range over the N ATL... completely misses the formation of a massive 50/50 this obviously has big implications on both the impacts of the next system and the evolution of the block as a whole

yeah this event definitely favors SNE... mainly towards CT