brooklynwx99

@ORH_wxman look at the Scandi ridging retrograde towards Greenland... that's a legit signal for a potent -NAO. those like to tuck westward too

holy crap

no way to know. just have to see i’m leaning towards the EPS since it’s been more consistent, but who knows

it’s ridiculous. i’m not sure how a huge feature like that is completely different between ensembles at this range

the EPS and GEFS are completely different in how they handle the PV lobe in SE Canada the EPS is similar to the better runs where it acts as a 50/50, while the GEFS leaves it much farther NW and torches everyone now we just need to see which is correct! could go either way. this is a very touchy setup

I know it’s still day 6, but this is a really significant difference in the entire NA pattern the GEFS would be a total wash while the EPS still has the confluent flow in SE Canada now we just have to see which is correct

yeah, the EPS looks quite similar. the 18z GFS looks like a blip as of now

EPS is relatively unchanged from 12z so i’m inclined to believe the GEFS is on crack the 50/50 is a tad weaker but the C Canada ridging is a tad stronger so it seems like a wash

super interesting pattern evolution upcoming and snowman is finding tweets from teenagers that talk about factors that may lead to a warm pattern in the E US love to see it

I know that you guys are worried about climo, and rightfully so at this time of year, but this is a loaded pattern you have a stout +PNA, a decaying west based -NAO, an anomalous 50/50, and a potent shortwave this isn’t your typical November setup, so I think it’s worth watching closely even south of the M-D line

this is absolutely loaded everything is there for a significant storm: strong +PNA ridge, anticyclonic wave breaking in Canada forced by the -NAO, anomalous 50/50, and a potent shortwave can't really look any better a week out, let's see what happens

the 50/50 shifted a good bit west as well... hard not to get excited with this look

if only it was a month from now. either way, this is a pretty ideal setup as depicted on the EPS with an anomalous ridge out west, decaying blocking over Hudson Bay, and a deep 50/50 ULL near Nova Scotia. can't draw it up that much better than this the west based -NAO and subsequent 50/50 help force strong HP over SE Canada. if the block is for real, which seems to be the case at this point, then we should see that HP trend stronger in that area as it's downstream of a ridge (promotes upper level convergence and surface divergence -> sinking motion) don't be totally fooled by the time of year. although climo is relatively hostile in late November, this setup can provide ample cold air as shown by the the 00z ECMWF OP, and sun angle is low. there is certainly an elevated risk for winter weather even down to the Mid-Atlantic given all of these pieces in place over the next few days, the most important features to watch will be the blocking and 50/50. if blocking trends stronger or the 50/50 trends farther west, we will see odds for a significant event increase, and vice versa it's still around a week out, so much will change, but it's definitely encouraging to see legit -NAO blocking show up this early in the season happy model watching!

tell me about it. big change in the 50/50 ULL with a stronger ridge out west. nice banana HP starting to show up too

the anticyclonic wave break over Hudson Bay will also force HP into SE Canada, so I'm not worried about a lack thereof this is a really, really nice look. there would be ample cold air verbatim

yeah, it’s basically just an area of below normal heights around Nova Scotia. a legit one forms from a block, and it leads to confluence over SE Canada that locks a HP and cold air in

this west based -NAO and extremely deep 50/50 is pretty textbook for a large coastal storm the signal is there, just still have to fight climo at this point. if this was a month later the alarm bells would already be going off haha

GFS has a legit classic pattern progression with the retrograding -NAO into Canada and the 50/50 pushing off of Nova Scotia... obviously it's far out there, but this is the type of setup where you have a lot of pieces needed for an anomalous event to take place

here were some thoughts I posted in the MA subforum, they're applicable here too. the blocking showing up looks legit and Dec 2010 is looking like a better and better analog recently

it's also quite easy to see how we get from the pattern at the end of the EPS to a pattern like December 2010. yes, I know there was bad luck for you guys down here, but I would take that pattern in the MA every single time all that's really needed is for the blocking to mature and retrograde, which is something that blocking from Scandinavian ridging often does over the course of a few weeks. it takes some time, but it happens more often than not. yes, the Pacific looks "bad" with the -PNA, but it doesn't matter with a west-based -NAO and cross-polar flow established by the poleward Aleutian ridge so, not to hype things up too much, but the chance for a Dec 2010-like pattern is becoming a bit higher looking at the general pattern progression

what a gorgeous look here in the high latitudes. often times the higher heights near Scandinavia retrograde yes, the Pacific isn't amazing yet, but it's reshuffling. the blocking showing up that strongly with a 50/50 and trough into Europe is legit this is also a 5 day mean, which makes this even more impressive

this is actually very similar to the first half of Dec 2010, believe it or not the anomalies are of a much higher magnitude in Dec 2010, but the general waveform is almost a dead ringer

yeah, it would the GEFS might be a little quick with the blocking, but that general pattern evolution makes sense

this is really nice to see. that's a legit -NAO/-AO on a 5-day mean just give the Pacific 7-10 days to reshuffle and that's a great pattern. verbatim that's dry and on the cooler side for you guys around Thanksgiving

dude what are you talking about? the EPS is still well below normal for the same time period and yes, it is, but it's likely just a relaxation before a reload in December just accept the L like a normal person lmao