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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    let's keep it simple here are all the weak-moderate Ninos since 1950: here are all the weak-moderate Ninas in the same timeframe: Ninos far and away present the possibility for a great pattern. let's just root for one next year
  2. brooklynwx99
    lmao now we're getting into whether Ninos lead to +PNAs anymore? come on. the tropical forcing is in a different spot and encourages the Aleutian ridging that we see in Ninas to move farther E. this is also why "good" MJO phases often occur more in Ninos, since they positively feed back... instead of in Ninas where the waves suddenly die once close to Phase 8
  3. brooklynwx99
    you weren't on forums for Feb 2021? that was an insane stretch. NYC got a historic blizzard and 30" in a month
  4. brooklynwx99
    definitely less suppressive than 00z. TPV isn't as far SE and the 250mb jet is more poleward. S/W is a touch less amped, but I think those changes will lead to a net positive this run in terms of avoiding a squashed system
  5. brooklynwx99
    might not do it this run, but the ECMWF is worlds better than the GFS
  6. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF doesn't look like it'll be as suppressed as the GFS with the second wave more amplified wave and more downstream ridging
  7. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the GEPS disagrees with the CMC and actually looks decent with the second wave. let's see what the ECMWF / EPS think in a bit
  8. brooklynwx99
    it's more of a lack of amplification for the third wave. a stronger wave would bring in more of the cold air due to the stronger northerly flow while a weak wave only skirts it and keeps the airmass marginal. it's not an airmass issue
  9. brooklynwx99
    i know that the off runs are supposed to be just as accurate as the 00/12z runs, but I can’t even tell you how many times I see crap like this
  10. brooklynwx99
    the GFS keeps amping the vort up for the second wave… let’s see how it turns out
  11. brooklynwx99
    ha, the stronger NS in the end actually leads to a stronger first wave. more energy just gets sheared out rooting against this evolution, definitely a lower ceiling
  12. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the ICON should be improved with the second wave. less initial stream interaction and a stronger vort
  13. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is more held back with the second wave. better looking 250mb jet too
  14. brooklynwx99
    if there was one place i’d want to see the GFS at this range, it would be here. still way too progressive
  15. brooklynwx99
    250mb jet is stronger and more favorably oriented compared to 12z
  16. brooklynwx99
    this is a nice look with the strong southern stream shortwave and confluence in place
  17. brooklynwx99
    storm cancel jk I would actually be worried about suppression rather than a cutter with the TPV in that spot
  18. brooklynwx99
    here she comes
  19. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is on the right track for the first wave. both colder and wetter
  20. brooklynwx99
    this is nice from the GEFS. better ridging showing up out west and lower heights initially. it'll be easier to snow from that first wave if the SE ridge is pressed a bit
  21. brooklynwx99
    the reason why this cuts is because of a late phase with a vort coming onto the WC. if this is a phantom vort or is just like 12-24 hours slower, this is a monster storm. I'll consider this a good run
  22. brooklynwx99
    finally, a legit antecedent airmass to work with
  23. brooklynwx99
    Oh Canada? edit: it does phase at the end, but this is still a very intriguing setup
  24. brooklynwx99
    THIS could do something, though. confluence rolling in with a much more potent wave than the GFS
  25. brooklynwx99
    the main thing is that we have a legit southern stream wave and very cold air to the north. almost a Nino-ish look with that wave. you can get serious overrunning that way with a thermal gradient that strong
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