brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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lots of people don't understand that a great pattern only increases odds so there might be a 2-5% chance on any given day in Dec 15 - Jan 15 that NYC sees over 6" of snow. in this pattern, it's more like 40-60%, which is astronomically better, but you still have room to fail. it's not a guarantee, and we've gotten unlucky
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yeah, the monster storm did materialize, just a matter of 300 miles is the difference between a screaming cutter and a KU frustrating, but it is what it is. hopefully we can get a follow up wave behind it
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take your frustration out on something else. go punch a pillow or something i’m not happy about this either, but it’s the weather. c’est la vie -
God I cannot wait for that Nino next year it'll be like a weight lifted off of everyone's shoulders
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haha fair. tough to communicate tone via text @Damage In Tolland but yeah to answer your question there are a couple shots at a wave after this one, but I don't even wanna think about those right now
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lmao I try to contribute and add value and this is what I get? thanks
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FWIW the ICON still looks to be in the GFS's camp
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i’m out with my friends, dude
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the ECMWF has made a definite shift towards the GFS in its handling of the AK vort much more amplified
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thanks for understanding. i’ll refrain from now on - unless it’s egregious hahaha I really don’t know what to think here. I still think everything is on the table. the foreign models do give me pause but the GFS suite is holding strong and other models are ticking. the GEFS is insane this is going to be a biggggg weekend
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the GEFS mean snowfall is another improvement from 18z
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sorry… did not mean to come off as judgemental. just want everyone to keep a level head as much as possible this is going to be a doozy to track and if one invests too much emotionally, it’s going to be a bad time. trust me, I have prepared for the GFS to have egg on its face and for everyone to rain… I would probably rage a bit too
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GEFS has less of a W lean, it appears
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the angst over a 70 mile difference between rain and snow at day 7 is quite silly, too I feel like people just have to take a couple days and let this play out. we'll know what's up by Monday, most likely
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hilarious when comparing to the 18z EPS. like what the fuck it's a wholesale synoptic feature that just isn't there on the EPS at 5 days out! crazy one of these models is going to be really, really, really wrong
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I'm just happy that the GFS is digging in its heels. something has to give, and it doesn't seem to be the GFS right now we can work with the GFS for sure at 7 days out. brings significant wintry precip and it still has a lot of issues
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after the hellacious front end thump? that's like 8" in 6 hours for most
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GFS looks amazing weaker initial S/W and the TPV is much stronger, which will provide more confluence
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looks like the GFS might actually have the right idea here. not budging from its idea at 18z at all if anything, the TPV lobe is a touch stronger
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looks like the GFS has fused the two S/Ws. really interesting. no idea where this will go, but I can assure that it won't be like the ECMWF in its evolution
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18z GEFS improved snowfall for most
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we will absolutely take at 7 days out
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yeah, the GFS was more amplified because of the S/W. the synoptic evolution is absolutely nothing like the ECMWF this run was just typical Day 7 noise, not a step towards the ECMWF
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the more important thing here is that the GFS held serve synoptically and the ICON made a big shift towards it if the ECMWF makes the same synoptic changes, it bodes much better for a coastal storm. keep in mind that this is still 7 days out
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I'll take this at 7 days out. the good thing is that the evolution is absolutely nothing like the ECMWF there's going to be a lot of noise at this range, which is expected anyway
