brooklynwx99

things will become a lot more moist heading into tropical season. the analogs are screaming another very wet summer with slightly above average temps the pattern should be conducive for EC landfalls and we should see a lot of 90/70 type days towards late July - early September

this looks just as bad as last week's event over 70kt of 0-6 bulk shear with very low LCLs, nearly saturated column, and tons of low-level SRH the main difference with this setup is that the forcing mechanism is a dryline rather than a cold front, which often allows for more discrete activity to form. notice that the bulk shear vectors are more normal to the dryline than last event, where there was lots of deep layer shear that was nearly parallel to the cold front, which promotes QLCSs rather than discrete activity. so overall, I'm more a bit more concerned with cells ahead of the main QLCS than last week

aside from the early cooldown, April looks warmer than not. also some indications of a warmer summer but that's way out there. the base state of the persistent SE / W Atlantic ridge has been established, so ride with that until further notice

this is a locked and loaded KU pattern... in early-mid March. however, it's not impossible to see some more snow given the very favorable pattern here. climo is certainly a problem S of the M-D line, but I wouldn't totally rule it out

if there's one pattern to get a late season event, this would be it: highly anomalous, decaying WB -NAO, 50/50 ULL, and a strong OH Valley trough obviously, climo is unfavorable, but there's the potential for another winter storm if this pattern verifies. if we saw this even a couple of weeks ago we'd be talking KU

if there's one pattern to get a late season event, this would be it: highly anomalous, decaying WB -NAO, 50/50 ULL, and a strong OH Valley trough obviously, climo is unfavorable, but there's the potential for another winter storm if this pattern verifies. if we saw this even a couple of weeks ago we'd be talking KU

could be some blizzard conditions after the changeover with 1-2"+/hr rates and gusts around 30-40 mph

could be some blizzard conditions after the changeover with 1-2"+/hr rates and gusts around 30-40 mph

pretty wild to see the EPS become colder and colder each run with less than 48 hours of lead time

very impressive to see such a consistent cold trend at 48 hours out from the EPS

looks like the colder trends are continuing! could be a nice burst of moderate to heavy snow in the metro around midday. 1-3” is a good call for now, mainly on colder surfaces

6z GFS even colder… the trend has been pretty impressive overall

6z GFS even colder… the trend has been pretty impressive overall

6z GFS even colder… the trend has been pretty impressive overall

wow. ECMWF continues increasing the interaction of the TPV, notably lowering heights and leading to a colder solution

wow. ECMWF continues increasing the interaction of the TPV, notably lowering heights and leading to a colder solution

the key over the last few runs across the GFS and ECMWF has been increased involvement of the TPV. the lobe has consistently trended deeper, lowering heights and temps as a result over the NE

GFS is also continuing the trend of more TPV interaction leading to a colder solution

GFS is also continuing the trend of more TPV interaction leading to a colder solution

every ensemble had the same overall pattern, and the signal decayed on all ensembles. the GEFS was also very aggressive with the cold, as was the GEPS. it happens never said the EPS was correct, either. just said that it's worth considering that kind of solution if the trend continues at 00z

there has been a pretty legit trend towards a stronger TPV, which leads to lowering of the heights over the NE and a quicker cold air intrusion tough to say if the EPS is out to lunch, but given the consistency of this trend and the lead time presented, it's hard to totally ignore it

there has been a pretty legit trend towards a stronger TPV, which leads to lowering of the heights over the NE and a quicker cold air intrusion tough to say if the EPS is out to lunch, but given the consistency of this trend and the lead time presented, it's hard to totally ignore it

I'll continue to take my chances with this much cold air around. there's been signals for a larger system around the 13-18th, and it does fit the general pattern around that time