brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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EPS still pretty solid for midweek next week
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If you want a front end thump before a change to rain, that's what you want I think everyone would take that at this point -
GEFS is much improved with the confluence for midweek next week
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hey, I still think this is the main window. TPV drops down and some SS vort leads to an overrunning event
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GFS is trending towards more confluence, which helps for a thump scenario
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decent trend in SE Canada though. the more confluence, the better would be tough to get anything more than a thump though
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a beatdown is a pretty tame way to put it. I can't really remember the last time I've seen a disruption like this from extended ensembles. the SPV is gone here obviously this stuff is very mercurial, but it's worth keeping an eye on for late winter shenanigans. in the meantime, we can focus on stuff through the first week of February
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no changes
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CMC ENS agree with the stronger confluence
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not just a thump lmao probably a straight up Miller B
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confluence stronger on the CMC for the second storm. likely a good thump here
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yup, stronger confluence
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slight change here lmao
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I get that pessimism reigns right now, but this is plenty cold. if we were as cold as Canada, it would be suppressive
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i highly doubt that. below average? seems like a lock tho
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if we are going to win in this pattern, the 18z GFS is how you'd do it TPV drops down, establishes a very cold antecedent airmass, and a SS wave clashes with it and leads to significant overrunning snowfall
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they do have blocking returning that's likely associated with a disruption of the SPV or even a SSW. I would never count on something like this, but it's certainly plausible. weakened SPVs certainly make it easier to disrupt the TPV. it's a wildcard. @40/70 Benchmark has also mentioned this these blocking events are often preceded by strong SE ridging, which is what we'll be seeing for the first half of Feb, most likely
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it does kind of make sense when you see the SPV take a shot like this, though. usually you see the SE ridge strengthen and then blocking develop. there's a 3-4 week lag anyway with the SPV stuff that takes you to the end of February... lines up with the Weeklies weakened SPVs do make blocking easier. it's not out of the question to see blocking return late in the winter
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they have blocking returning, likely due to the obliterated SPV. this is a plausible scenario given a weakened SPV but yeah the first half looks ugly
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looks like it has blocking reload late, possibly due to the SPV weakening. but it does look like we'll get warm for the first half of the month
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Blizzard of 2016
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The “is it ever going to snow again” discussion.
brooklynwx99 replied to psuhoffman's topic in Mid Atlantic
the point I'm trying to make is that CC is just as responsible for winters like 2009-10, 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2015-16 as it is for winters like this one. would make zero sense to say otherwise. like people are picking and choosing what it's applicable for because it's been a crappy few winters and it's bugging me haha -
FWIW the NAM is actually going to be colder than 12z
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NAM is going to be colder than 12z. lower heights downstream
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i think the tenor of this subforum will change when CC contributes to two 30"+ winters for BWI in like three years. the band has to snap the other way. wouldn't make sense if it didn't
