brooklynwx99

we should probably focus on the favorable period coming up before discussing how said period may break down in 15-20 days

the GEFS has been steadily trending towards a faster SS vort: this likely leads to a later / sloppier phase, which ends up leading to latitude gain at a later time, pushing the vort S but maintaining its strength, similar to what the ICON does this is also shown by the SLP spread... we've seen a continuous shift towards more of a coastal low as opposed to a lakes runner so, again, I really only favor this for the interior, but if you want to track something, I think this is worth it. just set your expectations to 0 if you're close to 95

GEFS picking up on next week, too

here's a good illustration of what I mean wrt the phasing and eventual location. not sure if you agree the GEFS has been steadily trending towards a faster SS vort: this likely leads to a later / sloppier phase, which ends up leading to latitude gain at a later time, pushing the vort S but maintaining its strength, similar to what the ICON does this is also shown by the SLP spread... we've seen a continuous shift towards more of a coastal low as opposed to a lakes runner so, again, I really only favor this for the interior, but if you want to track something even if near the coast, I think this is worth it. just set your expectations to 0 if you're coastal

exactly. this looks like a very dynamic system, and whoever is NW of the main low can see deform action for sure

I think the main thing to watch with 1/23 is seeing how far E the SS piece escapes. the reason why the ICON works IMO is because the southern stream leaks eastward, suppressing heights out ahead of the main trough and leading to a coastal low the GFS has been trending in that direction with the SS vort, which is why we've seen east ticks since 00z this is certainly not a good setup for the coast, but I would keep an eye on this, since the system will be very dynamic. anywhere NW of the SLP has a shot of legitimately cooling due to strong FGEN, good 250mb venting, and lots of PVA root for the SS energy to be a bit quicker to prevent a clean phase, if anything. luckily, it seems like things have been trending a bit more progressively as we've headed towards an event anyway, so there's that. I would definitely feel better if I lived NW of 95 into NH / C MA

using the 850mb temp anomalies is also a bit dishonest when you could be dealing with an isothermal temp profile but you know this i also never mentioned SNE. just said it’s worth keeping an eye on. this setup favors towards Lawrence and north

i beg your pardon?

this is high risk/high reward for us. i’m a lot more optimistic than a few days ago those on the cold side of the gradient can really cash in. NE is favored but I think we’re in a good spot

EPS is becoming more interesting for late this weekend stronger S/W with more SLPs off the coast. decent 5-10 members bring significant snowfall just NW or even to the NYC metro

no changes

EPS starting to look more interesting for late this weekend stronger S/W with lower heights leading to more SLPs off the coast. some real bombs in here

the location of the TPV on the EPS is pretty much perfect the blocking shifts it into SE Canada, which is a great spot to provide confluence split flow showing up with the STJ being tapped into here

the location of the TPV on the EPS is pretty much perfect the blocking shifts it into SE Canada, which is a great spot to provide confluence split flow showing up with the STJ being tapped into here

can't ask for too much more here. sheeeeesh HL ridge bridge - a legit -NAO/-AO/-EPO pattern with a strong jet stream off the EC

nice Miller A signal on the EPS for next week

miller A signal also showing up on the EPS, same timeframe as the ECMWF OP looks like we have two other potential winter weather threats: late this weekend and the 25-27th

we kneel and pray

the EPS is pretty much phased at this point, which is good for later on IMO even if it's a rainer for SNE south verbatim

the NAO ridging is the kicker for NYC south, especially for you guys... if it trends stronger, it'll force the TPV into SE Canada and lead to a lot more confluence higher chance of ending on the right side of the gradient. encouraging for sure

you as well as anyone would know what came after 2001-02 with a flip to a pretty legit Nino... coming off of multiple Ninas

the -PNA also becomes less and less of an annoyance once into Feb due to the shorter wavelengths, too definitely not sold that this will be a canonical Nina Feb. what about this winter has been canonical in the slightest? more like a Nino, honestly

I would certainly take my chances form NYC south in this type of pattern cross polar flow, some blocking, and a source region that's finally favorable. this is active too with the STJ open. there's always a risk for cutters, but I like this type of pattern for overrunning, which are "easier" storms that can still deliver for a larger area

I know, it's been frustrating, but all we have is what's in front of us. the change occurs around Day 8, too, so this isn't complete fantasy at this point

you guys are going to get rocked if this is correct... this is even good down to NYC. the TPV is in a good spot here, there's cross polar flow, and even some blocking I know that pessimism is rampant, but you can make up a ton of ground in this type of active setup