brooklynwx99

GEFS is juicy in the LR… this is a big time overrunning setup as modeled with split flow

this is gorgeous. big March 2015 vibes with a cold overrunning pattern -EPO with split flow

gorgeous

yeah, it's March '15-esque. would be an active overrunning look if it were to verify

the pattern showing up in the LR is actually a bit deceiving... this does look like a "torch" at first glance, but there's actually a ton of cold air in SE Canada, and the TPV S of Greenland provides confluence. so, even though there's a SE ridge, there would more than likely be a pretty stout cold press with lots of HP over the top March 2015 is a pretty similar analog to this type of gradient pattern. NOT saying that we're getting a month this anomalous, but the NAO was extremely positive and there was considerable SE ridging. however, we all remember how the TPV parked S of Greenland provided significant confluence and kept areas N of DC colder than average thanks to the Pacific help. so, just because you see a SE ridge and +NAO doesn't mean you torch if the TPV is in a favorable location for providing confluence so, if this pattern was to verify (I have no reason to believe it's outlandish), then we would see an active overrunning pattern with lots of chances to open the month. let's hope the guidance holds on this March '15-esque look

GEFS does just that... this is March 2015-esque NOT saying that this March will be anything that extreme, but the advertised pattern could certainly deliver with overrunning events riding the boundary

this is a significant amplification trend on the NAM... the entire trough has been tilting more favorably for an entire model cycle. something to watch for coastal peeps as that's really close to an interesting outcome

this is a significant amplification trend on the NAM... the entire trough has been tilting more favorably for an entire model cycle. something to watch for coastal peeps as that's really close to an interesting outcome

would be some surprises in store if the 250mb jet verifies that strong... models often underdo the blossoming of precip with UL forcing

a jet streak like that would mean business... could be some surprises in store if one of that strength verifies. would like to see this from other hi-res guidance

I mean... the NAM and HRRR make meteorological sense in their depictions of the precip shield the NAM only beefed up because of a more potent 250mb jet, which checks out. models often underdo blossoming precip in those scenarios, so we'll have to see if other mesos catch on to the stronger jet streak

there is a slight risk for the trailing wave on PD weekend to get its act together... definitely not impossible and there would be SS origin if it were to occur. worth keeping an eye on since there really isn't much else to look at

GFS looks better… way different with the NS, should be in a good way S vort is definitely more consolidated

EPS follows suit. more consolidated trough, similar to the OP

certainly better at 500. NS is digging more and the trough is a bit held back

ECMWF looks better. NS is digging more and the trough is more held back

agree. digging farther W and the trough is more held back

GFS is much improved aloft

GFS made a pretty significant improvement in the NS... let's see if it's a legit correction

GFS is bringing back the transient blocking, important to see if that holds

hair away from a nuke… wow

JFK has been reporting FZRA at 32 for almost an hour on a 15-20 mph NNW wind.. might be some issues soon as there's lots of precip to go as temps continue to drop KJFK 042043Z COR 33016KT 4SM -FZRA BR BKN007 OVC020 00/M01 A2989 RMK AO2 P0009 T00001011

really nice upcoming pattern with a 2 sigma ridge over British Columbia and split flow. should get some higher-end chances after Super Bowl weekend

really nice upcoming pattern with a 2 sigma ridge over British Columbia and split flow. should get some higher-end chances after Super Bowl weekend

this is about as good as it gets without -NAO blocking. 2 sigma ridge over British Columbia and split flow