brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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GEFS still keeps focus on the late-week potential system. really nice look here
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the stronger storm on the 11th is now leading to a 50/50-type feature showing up on the EPS, which would lead to a lot more antecedent HP
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the stronger storm on the 11th is now leading to a 50/50-type feature showing up on the EPS, which would lead to a lot more antecedent HP
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yeah, verbatim it gets shunted, but there's no way to tell where that feature will end up. this run just has all of the pieces there, which is nice to see
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even if this wasn't a big hit verbatim, this is a really nice setup with lots of cold air if the confluence develops. great run to show the potential here IMO that ULL over the TN Valley is classic
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even if this wasn't a big hit verbatim, this is a really nice setup with lots of cold air if the confluence develops. great run to show the potential here IMO
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even if this wasn't a big hit verbatim, this is a really nice setup with lots of cold air if the confluence develops. great run to show the potential here IMO
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yup. super amped S/W with lots of confluence in place probably squashed verbatim but the setup is there, which is all that matters at this range
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yeah, the stronger wave on the 12th leads to more confluence. the ridge upstream along the WC is amping up, too. this looks pretty good
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yeah, you can see the increased confluence here... this run looks interesting
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heh
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I know, but nobody is forecasting a snowstorm... people are only addressing a threat, which is also important. there is certainly a threat or two next week, mainly for the one towards the end of the week if people assign unreasonable expectations due to those threats, that is on that person IMO
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yeah, this is a great look. really nice to see that confluent flow in SE Canada keeping a strong HP in place there
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I like seeing the confluence show up here. increases the chance of strong HP in SE Canada potent shortwave too
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if people looked for what could only go wrong, snowstorms would literally never be forecasted Dec 2010 was thread the needle, Jan 2016 and Feb 2021 had too much confluence and so on it's important to acknowledge periods of higher potential
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the CMC has a really nice evolution the wave on Wednesday establishes confluence with a TPV lobe, there's an amplified S/W moving through the Plains along with a +PNA spike, and then there's a phase with the confluence in place
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the CMC has a really nice evolution the wave on Wednesday establishes confluence with a TPV lobe, there's an amplified S/W moving through the Plains along with a +PNA spike, and then there's a phase with the confluence in place
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GEFS looks great with the shortwave for late next week
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haha I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek, but I would not say that the ridge rolls over here. the axis shifts east a bit, but this happens with every event, even the huge ones like 1996 and 2016. I wouldn't consider it an issue here... the airmass is the biggest one, relatively speaking
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no
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huge signal on the EPS for next week potent shortwave coinciding with a PNA spike and confluence in SE Canada. the HP in SE Canada has trended a good bit stronger as well - more of a banana HP look than yesterday
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also note the strengthening of the HP up top. much more of a banana high look than yesterday, which would help overcome any marginal airmass issues with a strong SLP
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you guys were asking for a Nino (as well as everyone in NYC) - here you go. this type of evolution is right out of the +ENSO handbook really potent shortwave moving across the CONUS coinciding with a +PNA spike and confluence over SE Canada
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huge signal on the EPS for late next week really potent shortwave moving across the CONUS coinciding with a +PNA spike and confluence over SE Canada
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the super-Nino type pattern that we're seeing does force a strong central Canada ridge, but this also increases confluence in SE Canada as a result. HP is often forced downstream of high level ridging, and that's what we're seeing on the GEFS and EPS. because of this, I'm not convinced that the airmass will be unfavorable, especially because of peak climo and a potentially strong SLP
