brooklynwx99

wish you stopped posting

let’s wait until Monday to get too excited, but this is an amazing look

holy shit. this is an unreal look. lots of split flow too

FWIW the GEPS is also going to show more coastals… farther S Plains ULL and lower heights over the NE US

GEFS has gone from a cutter to a coastal in one model cycle, as predicted given the block

keep in mind that the -NAO blocking is also decaying during the timeframe for the late-week storm, which is also a precursor to some of our largest events

oops!

oops!

GEFS continues the trend of more CAD, a weaker bowling ball S/W and lower downstream heights

this is a significant trend at 500mb. makes sense to have a shove S given the anomalous 50/50 and ridging in central Canada this is certainly worth keeping an eye on

GEFS ticks towards a stronger secondary LP again

what exactly am i missing? myself and a bunch of others have been persistent in saying that a favorable pattern would evolve after the 15th or so, got ridiculed for it by people worrying about absolutely nothing, and now everyone that was ridiculing is flipping back to the snow train on a whim. it's weird behavior

I'm favoring redevelopment for this system with a block that strong as well as a strong ULL out in the Atlantic like that... the models should continue to correct. there are already some strong members near the Delmarva that likely deliver from CT northward this deserves watching over the next few days

I'm favoring redevelopment for this system with a block that strong as well as a deep ULL out in the Atlantic like that... the models should continue to correct. there are already some strong members near the Delmarva that likely deliver from CT northward

here, though, we're likely going to see some better transient -NAO spells... those winters have insanely positive +NAOs, so we could see slower evolutions here

we're in for it after that "cutter" mid next week that'll probably just redevelop given the block in Canada and ULL to the east that -EPO ridge into W Canada that builds poleward is drool worthy. this is all moving forward in time, too. there are going to be some high end chances during the latter half of the month

dude

seems like it's been strengthening, as it should with all of the wave breaking going on in the Atlantic. the GFS/GEFS was handling this aspect horrendously recently

really nice to see the EPS maintain some of the WB -NAO blocking, which helps lead to the slight 50/50 signal. it also has the -EPO oriented such that there's ridging into W Canada, which will dump cold farther E and lead to less cutters

holy crap

holy shit

tick tick tick

it tries to cut and gets shunted S by the block... exotic evolution here but it's possible with a block that strong this is also made possible by the 50/50 put in place by Monday's system

soooooo the GFS/GEFS completely whiffed on a 50/50 due to the system on Monday trending a lot more robust this has led to sweeping changes with how the overall pattern will develop later on, and the GEFS is now keying in on a lot more blocking over Greenland and AK. the AK blocking is likely due to the 50/50 as well as the GEFS noticing the effect of the +EAMT and Siberian TPV either way, I still think that we're on track for an exciting period of winter weather after the 15th or so. I see no reason to stray from that as of now. if anything, I've become a lot more confident since yesterday