brooklynwx99

ECMWF is notably colder

GFS continues to compress the height field over SE Canada… leads to a crippling solution verbatim this solution can’t be thrown out, as very cold air filtering into a wave of LP is similar to what happens in the Plains. this is an anomalous setup

the GFS being this cold is certainly a red flag. it often underdoes CAD, so I would imagine that it would be even colder at the surface if this synoptic setup verifies with a 1044 mb HP in an ideal spot for cold air drainage scary stuff. let's see how this trends over the next couple of days

SN BLSN, down to 24. probably at 4-5" but the drifting makes any accurate measurements impossible

I tried earlier, and it's not even really possible anymore. there's so much drifting

heavy, blowing snow in Bay Ridge. winds probably gusting up to 40 mph

absolutely dumping in Bay Ridge. very gusty winds as well

ripping here. tiny flakes, but quite windy and the flakes are coming down fast. some BLSN as well radar looks immaculate. metro and E are in for a good night

wow… 700mb FGEN draped across the NJ coast into NYC

incoming!

what a joke

banding is headed into the metro, here we go

gorgeous

frontogenesis is a tightening of a thermal gradient, which can help signal vertical motion, in this case, at 700mb. it's probably helping force the snow over there right now

700mb FGEN has developed over JFK-ACY-ILG

HRRR might be reeling it back in…

this is unreal way more amped when everything was east at 18z

exactly. if I was solely basing this off of the mid and upper levels, I would go 10-16" or even 12-18". PVA is aimed right at the metro, the 700mb closes S of LI, and the jet dynamics are nearly perfect however, there's some weird stuff going on at the surface. I'm not discounting it at all, it could be right, but I just can't be confident in a depiction like that

this really all comes down to the consolidation of the trough and then the handling of the dual low. the first can be handled somewhat well by modeling, but the second is really a no-go. some models have to parameterize the convection, which leads to assumptions being made, and everything goes south very quickly I really just think that we're just going to see how this one plays out over the next 24 hours. I have no more confidence than I did yesterday, if anything, even less this is not to say that these changes will be for the better, they could be for the worse, too! we're just not going to have a good idea until we can see what the system is doing in real time If I had to take a stab at it, I would say 8-14" for the metro, but this is low confidence and I can't even put much weight behind it

what do you even say to this? would be 3-4”/hr rates at 15F and 60 mph gusts

this is absolutely unreal.

I am in shock. if the ECMWF even ticks west, the metro may actually have a legitimate shot of seeing major (12+) totals

I'm feeling good about this one. the trends are undeniable, and the GEFS/GFS finally caved in a big way. coupled with the nice shifts from the NAM/RGEM as well as the 12z EPS, I am becoming increasingly optimistic for a more high-end solution for the metro as of now, I agree with Upton, around 6-10" looks good. but the potential for more is rearing its head a bit more now

NAM looks great so far. initial disturbance is much improved

everything on the ECMWF is improved