brooklynwx99

when are you going to stop being so insufferable?

this type of look is at day 8 now, after the midweek threat

holy crap. that midweek threat might just open the floodgates

ha

FWIW the OP GFS is on the far W edge of the GEFS SLP positions. most are offshore

FWIW the OP GFS is on the far W edge of the SLP positions on the GEFS. most are offshore

I have been deceived by the GFS way too many times. so many times it'll be by itself on something to completely cave

it's a good thing the GFS is consistently awful

people have to realize that climate change is also responsible for winters like 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2017-18, and 2020-21 just makes the bad periods worse and the good periods better

idk, I will certainly take this at day 7. good amount of Miller As off the coast with a solid snowfall mean

that's climo for you guys in the medium range, though. anything over 1" is an actual signal for something 7 days away

this looks pretty nice

UKMET has horrible thermals. wouldn't pay the snow output much mind

this would normally cut, but the system over the Rockies keeps things progressive

similar to the ECMWF, but still the second best model based on skill scores, surprisingly. 2m temps are useless it's generally a bit erratic

we want to see the southern stream continue to tick faster for Monday... it seems like that's the main culprit for the lowered heights later in the run:

the quicker southern stream leads to lower downstream heights, similar to the GFS

I think one of the most important parts of the medium to LR forecast will be the NAO... if we can establish even a weak -NAO, even into Feb when the PNA becomes negative, it'll keep the TPV in a favorable spot with cold nearby if not... not so good. the NAO is inherently very difficult to predict, so there's going to be a lot of changes, but it's nice to see modeling maintain that signal

are you aware that you could get smoked this weekend? be honest

we should probably focus on the favorable period coming up before discussing how said period may break down in 15-20 days

the GEFS has been steadily trending towards a faster SS vort: this likely leads to a later / sloppier phase, which ends up leading to latitude gain at a later time, pushing the vort S but maintaining its strength, similar to what the ICON does this is also shown by the SLP spread... we've seen a continuous shift towards more of a coastal low as opposed to a lakes runner so, again, I really only favor this for the interior, but if you want to track something, I think this is worth it. just set your expectations to 0 if you're close to 95

GEFS picking up on next week, too

here's a good illustration of what I mean wrt the phasing and eventual location. not sure if you agree the GEFS has been steadily trending towards a faster SS vort: this likely leads to a later / sloppier phase, which ends up leading to latitude gain at a later time, pushing the vort S but maintaining its strength, similar to what the ICON does this is also shown by the SLP spread... we've seen a continuous shift towards more of a coastal low as opposed to a lakes runner so, again, I really only favor this for the interior, but if you want to track something even if near the coast, I think this is worth it. just set your expectations to 0 if you're coastal

exactly. this looks like a very dynamic system, and whoever is NW of the main low can see deform action for sure

I think the main thing to watch with 1/23 is seeing how far E the SS piece escapes. the reason why the ICON works IMO is because the southern stream leaks eastward, suppressing heights out ahead of the main trough and leading to a coastal low the GFS has been trending in that direction with the SS vort, which is why we've seen east ticks since 00z this is certainly not a good setup for the coast, but I would keep an eye on this, since the system will be very dynamic. anywhere NW of the SLP has a shot of legitimately cooling due to strong FGEN, good 250mb venting, and lots of PVA root for the SS energy to be a bit quicker to prevent a clean phase, if anything. luckily, it seems like things have been trending a bit more progressively as we've headed towards an event anyway, so there's that. I would definitely feel better if I lived NW of 95 into NH / C MA