brooklynwx99

the ridging over the Rockies popping up as the block attenuates is classic. this is where the potential really cranks up

haha none taken! i’ve just seen some people doubting how good that pattern can be for whatever reason. it’s an amazing look and we want to see it continue to move forward in time

lmao for those that weenied my previous post, I’m not exactly sure what else you’d want to see for a large coastal storm that pattern is mint

EPS is absolutely gorgeous. this is primed for a high end snowfall event anywhere from BOS to RIC around the 15th through late month

not sure what some of the angst is about when we have an upcoming pattern that’ll probably look like this what more can you ask for if you want large coastals? this is the blueprint

no, not really. these retrograding Scandinavian blocking events are usually picked up at range just like most anomalous weather events. March 2018 was modeled at 10-15 days out and never waivered there are definitely some similarities between the two blocking events: initial SE ridging that gets squashed a strong Aleutian high western trough Plains ridging that eventually retrogrades to the Rockies, leading to a trough over the east and a favorable pattern for larger storms this is kind of what I expect to happen here, but every setup is different

the GEFS is also very similar to the period before Feb 2021 as well as much of Mar 2018. these blocks have historically produced high-end events... much of what you're hearing on social media or on forums really isn't hype with a pattern like this. the potential is just that high

i mean, it's hard not to get excited when you have a block like that. retrograding and decaying -NAO blocks are how we get our largest storms:

i agree. that puts us around the 15-25th or so

2010-11 is valid here. the similarities to the late Dec 2010 pattern are uncanny and if this block does materialize in this way, there is certainly the potential for a high-end event during the second half of the month

i mean... this is about as exciting of a look as it gets for SNE if history means anything. can't ask for much more when you have a perfectly placed block like that also, as the block matures, often times the ridging over the Plains retrogrades to the Rockies, and wave breaking from the Aleutian ridge leads to amplification of that ridge. this loop kinda shows that

twins

it’s worth noting that there’s actually a -PNA in place before NYC’s 18”+ storms. makes sense, as that’s how you’d get a big shortwave to traverse the country so don’t worry if there’s a western a trough if the blocking is that strong

holy crap

idk the cold might dump into the west at the very beginning, but this is a loaded setup. about as good as it gets

here is a loop of the preloading pattern for 18”+ events for NYC. it’s easy to see how we get from the EPS to this as the block retrogrades and decays

the EPS is pretty much a dead ringer to the second half of Dec 2010. make of that what you will i’m also inclined to believe that this anomalous west-based -NAO is legit. it’s well agreed upon on all major ensembles, it’s getting stronger and moving forward in time, and retrograding Scandinavian highs often give us our best blocking patterns. this checks all the boxes

yup! the EPS is absolutely loaded. here is a 7 day loop of the preloading pattern for 18”+ snowfalls in NYC, and you can see how you take the EPS around a week later and this occurs. really exciting look! btw, the preloading composites for NYC and BWI for the 18”+ events are very similar, so this is still useful for you guys. many of the storms that gave NYC all time amounts were great for the MA as well (2016 and 1996 come to mind) i’m also inclined to believe that the block is legit since it comes from a retrograding Scandinavian HP… those are known to cause our best periods of blocking

the block and overall pattern showing up on the EPS is very reminiscent of late December 2010 retrograding Scandinavian highs are known to give us our best blocking spells, so I think that the block itself is legit given how models are really picking up on it as we move forward in time

we aren't going to see a -PNA of that magnitude for that long for a long time. that was a record breaking semi-permanent Aleutian ridge we're going to see a -PNA spell to start December, but it should be transitionary rather than anything like that

if we do end up getting a Modoki Nino, which seems more likely, then there would be lots of blocking, especially late

this is what the pattern evolves to. it's pretty loaded for everyone

we're also going to see very strong high pressure move into Mongolia over the next 5-7 days, leading to a +EAMT that will extend the Pacific jet and lead to the anomalous -EPO that's showing up on modeling... so I think that's for real the blocking is a bit more nebulous, but with all the Scandinavian ridging I think that there's a better chance than not of a -NAO after the first week of December

we're also going to see very strong high pressure move into Mongolia over the next 5-7 days, leading to a +EAMT that will extend the Pacific jet and lead to the anomalous -EPO that's showing up on modeling... so I think that's for real the blocking is a bit more nebulous, but with all the Scandinavian ridging I think that there's a better chance than not of a -NAO after the first week of December

this is a really nice evolution with the Scandinavian ridging retrograding into Greenland. that's a signal for a legit block, and they like to leak farther W too