brooklynwx99

ULL versus anomalous WB -NAO over the Davis Strait at 6 days out. this is going to be fun

not putting any stock in this, but it's incredible how the GFS finds every conceivable way to screw some of the pattern features up. not sure if I've ever seen a ULL over the Davis Strait in the middle of a block

you know there’s a reason why you’re five posted, right?

only kind of annoying part is that the GEFS is so underdispersive that it'll make the same shift as the OP. one of my biggest LR forecasting pet peeves

lmao just a wholesale change in the handling of the -NAO... this one makes much more sense IMO

EPS looks amazing after the 12-14th system... strong blocking remains over the Davis Strait and the Pacific is vastly improved. everything still looks on track for the 15th onward

EPS is absolutely drool-worthy. again, it looks like the date is the 15th with a chance for wintry precip with the 12-14th system

for some reason the GFS is completely ignoring the effect of the Atlantic wave breaking on the block and instead shunts it east. meanwhile, the ECMWF properly develops it as warmer air advects into the Davis Strait it plays right into the GFS's progressive bias. the ECMWF's evolution of the block makes way more intuitive sense IMO

he might as well be lmao he knows what he's talking about even if he trolls every now and then either way my point still stands

lmao ok so again, a met gets excited by using pattern recognition and actual meteorological analysis to determine that there can be a really favorable period later in the month and others literally just use Murphy's Law to refute it and nothing else. just to preserve their feelings or whatever. no meteorological analysis at all and now the met gets bumped before the window is even here? what even is that

the former just makes more sense given the wave breaking in the Atlantic. these kinds of blocks don't just fall apart in a matter of days and get replaced by a trough. the evolution on the Canadian looks a lot more meteorologically correct all of the deepening troughs positively feed back and advect warm air into the Davis Strait, which is what the Canadian does. the GFS progresses the block E verbatim and it rapidly dissipates. it's just a weird evolution that doesn't look right and feeds into the GFS's progressive bias

there's a trough over Greenland from days 11-16... there is no damn way given how these patterns should progress

I have been saying (as well as others here) that we would have to wait until after the 15th through the end of the month since last week and I don't see any reason to stray from that now. the pattern hadn't established itself before then, and models often rush pattern changes by a few days, so I don't get what all the panic is about both here and on social media. it's just not wanting to wait this was the pattern for two weeks leading up to BDB, which amounted to some cutters and fish storms... people were freaking out then too. look at the Pacific! look familiar? we just have to be patient. disclaimer: i know that some here got skunked by that storm, but that was more of a matter of bad luck than anything else. was still a beast of a storm here are some snapshots from December 2010: there was a raging cutter on 12/13: cold and dry with an absolute garbage Pacific on 12/16: a storm going OTS, leaving us cold and dry with a deep trough off the WC on 12/21: and then a historic coastal storm 5 days later on 12/26: I'm sure the melts were of epic proportions back then and everyone looked a bit silly afterwards for not staying the course. not gonna lie, I probably would've started to get a bit frustrated myself

also, here are some snapshots from the second half of December 2010: there was a raging cutter on 12/13: cold and dry with an absolute garbage Pacific on 12/16: a storm going OTS, leaving us cold and dry with a deep trough off the WC on 12/21: and then, as we all know, a historic blizzard 5 days later on 12/26: I'm sure the melts were of epic proportions back then and everyone looked a bit silly afterwards for not staying the course. not gonna lie, I probably would've started to get a bit frustrated myself

I have been saying (as well as some others) that we would have to wait until after the 15th through the end of the month since last week and I don't see any reason to stray from that now. the pattern hadn't established itself before then, and models often rush pattern changes by a few days, so I don't get what all the panic is about both here and on social media. it's just not wanting to wait this was the pattern for two weeks leading up to BDB, which amounted to some cutters and fish storms... people were freaking out then too. look at the Pacific! look familiar? we just have to be patient

anyway, the EPS remains very nice looking from the threat on the 12th onward

people are gonna like that one lmao

EPS is improved with the weekend system sharper vort as well as a stronger HP... there should be some good members in here

the 12z GEFS is pretty interesting with the weekend storm... definitely starting to see some slowing down and amplifying of this shortwave as we move forward in time also really nice HP location and strength to bring in some cold air. this bears watching IMO

the weekend system definitely bears watching. peculiar setup, but good things can happen with a ULL and a strong HP to the north

what the hell even is this

no, nothing is the most important in a vacuum. you can have a +PNA and still have an unfavorable winter pattern if there's low AK heights or a strong +NAO

I agree. I'm just leaning on the EPS here since there's a ridiculous amount of variability and it has the most observations and the most members, so hopefully it can properly deal with all of the different solutions here. the GEFS has also been flopping around like crazy after day 8 or so while the EPS has remained consistent, so there's that

yup! still thinking after the 15th until the end of the month before a potential reload? there's a really strong correlation between -NAOs in Dec / Jan, so this isn't going to be a one and done either. there should be lots of chances' one of which is this weekend! kind of a weird setup, but we want to see the block and S/W strengthen in tandem to get more convergence... that's a really nice HP in Canada already though

haha I know that you guys got skunked with that storm, but I would roll the dice with that general setup every time in the MA