brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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getting an initial wave to drag a baroclinic zone south for another wave that actually produces snow isn't that rare. that's kind of what 50/50s do before larger storms sometimes
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the EPS still likes early next week for a storm, as there's a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Plains and a strong 50/50 in place. if there is enough confluence, then there can be a front-end thump or even a coastal solution like that the OP showed... certainly possible with a 50/50 like that. worth keeping an eye on obviously, we want to see the GFS / CMC get on board, but that will be a matter of which model is correctly handling the -NAO development. no real way to know right now
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the thing is that near normal is fine for the first week of March. and then the cold air would get forced underneath the block into the E US, assuming it’s strong and west-based. that’s what we don’t know yet
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hell yeah. hopefully it’s not a blip this is run to run change btw, not raw anomalies
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nice trend over the last few runs over the E US as the block ticks stronger
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yes, exactly. that is the type of response I’d expect. let’s hope that block gets as far W as possible
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this is intriguing
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you guys always might be onto something and then you go right off the deep end. why?
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i mean, you have a blocked up Atlantic that forces confluence, a -EPO to get fresh Arctic air, and a strong west-based -NAO. that type of pattern has a high ceiling for the entire NE US the change is that the trough is centered over the Plains, not the WC. that makes a huge difference
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we pray. this would be amazing
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this is what we want. this would have very high potential verbatim with the 50/50 dipole and west-based block
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there remains a pretty strong signal for a wintry system early next week with the shortwave ejecting out of the Midwest. just depends on the amount of confluence in place beforehand
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it's just that they aren't awful at all. they're actually very active with two storm possibilities so far NYC will just have to wait longer and have less wiggle room. personally I think the 3/5-3/20 window has the most promise for the entire NE US but everyone is exhausted so there's no need to really elaborate on that
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jesus dude they aren't even over yet
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hey, some people are interested in the weather. I've taken most of the negative emotions out of the whole thing. only positivity
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not gonna lie, there are indications that the AK ridging and a PNA moving towards neutral along with the decaying block that makes that 7-15th window interesting but I know everyone is exhausted lmao so no need to elaborate as of now
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yup, the largest events for NYC almost unanimously feature a -PNA or at least a deep trough on the WC or just offshore
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eh, I've never liked this morning's snow. BL temps are so trash
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kind of incredible how bad our luck is this winter. 80-90% of the time that's a blockbuster HL pattern but the Nina is just forcing everything into the Pacific NW. I suppose patterns like what we saw in 2010-11 and March 2018 are a rare breed not going to sleep on it, though. strong west-based -NAOs can do weird shit and I would still be surprised if there wasn't a larger storm somewhere in the March 5-20 timeframe
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I can't understand for the life of my why there isn't more of a confluent response over the NE US. it doesn't sit right with me, which is why I'm leaning on this correcting. like it's just not a pattern you'd expect there... you'd expect a coast to coast trough with the -EPO in place as well
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no, just think it's funny how consistently awful the GFS is. gave me a laugh this morning
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thank you GFS, very cool!
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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
the persistent Ninas help keep the western Atlantic warm in the same way that the insanely persistent +PNA/-EPO in 2013-2015 baked SSTs off the WC. generally the overall pattern drives the SSTs, but I'm sure there's a bit of a feedback loop going on right now that would break once a Nino forces a persistent SE trough -
damn. weather is some serious shit
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the system around the end of the month is probably our next legitimate threat. there is relatively high confidence on there being both a vigorous S/W moving through the Plains as well as a strong 50/50 in place to establish confluence. the -NAO itself isn't established, so the longevity of the 50/50 is a bit tenuous, but it may be very strong and do the job. this might be a NAO phase change event, which does lend itself to more dynamic solutions multiple members of the GEFS and GEPS end up redeveloping a strong SLP off the coast. it's the best synoptic setup we've had in a while (not saying much), and it's approaching the 7 day barrier, so it's worth monitoring IMO
