brooklynwx99

looks like the 06z EPS would end up more favorable than 00z... stronger block would lead to more confluence, and the initial vort is stronger as well. wish we could see this play out

looks like the 06z EPS would end up more favorable than 00z... stronger block would lead to more confluence, and the initial vort is stronger as well. wish we could see this play out

looks like the 06z EPS would end up more favorable than 00z... stronger block would lead to more confluence, and the initial vort is stronger as well. wish we could see this play out

nothing quite says snow like screaming 40 mph winds off the 50 degree ocean

this is one of the most insane signals i’ve ever seen, no joke. the upper low is already closing off on the mean

the 50/50 popping up thanks to the increasingly strong block really helps you guys. this is a tremendous storm signal if the blocking forces it underneath, there’s basically no ceiling to this setup haha

holy crap. what a look

wow. what a look

i really like the 23rd now that the block has gotten stronger. completely flipped the downstream pattern - went from a WAR to a 50/50

ditto

most of the members are now offshore as a result

the EPS has trended much more favorably with the blocking and the resulting confluence. this increases the chance of the 500mb ULL to slip underneath and really raises the ceiling

confluence is much stronger this run due to the better block. this greatly increases the odds of the ULL going underneath

EPS is much more favorable with the confluence ahead of the system of interest… thank the stronger blocking. it’s really a gorgeous block

all that really matters on the 12z ECMWF is that we saw a bunch of changes that increase the likelihood of a significant event: more favorable PNA ridging block is now cut off into the Davis Strait and is stronger more favorably placed 50/50 ULL this all leads to a much better outcome in terms of seeing a highly impactful storm. I think the blocking is forcing this, for the most part

speaking of exertion of more -NAO... look at the correction towards a much stronger -NAO over the last model cycle from the GEFS

I will take my chances 10/10 times with this look. the potential is sky high here

this is the type of potential next week holds. this is just an insanely dynamic solution you get that over the ocean and George wouldn't even be hyperbolic about his description of it

i don't know, the patterns are wholly different and the block should have a much easier time exerting itself now that there's a full-latitude ridge over the WC. the pattern for next week is much, much, more conducive for a favorable outcome over the NE US. it just has the look, so to speak the antecedent airmass is also way colder and climo is more favorable as well. I get what you're saying, but I think this setup holds so much more potential. i get the trepidation, and I don't mean to come off as argumentative... just spelling out what I'm seeing

there is a ton of spread here. a good bunch of those are true coastals, too. anything is on the table

yeah, this is a pretty incredible signal closed upper level high in the Beaufort Sea, +PNA, stout WB -NAO, a transient 50/50 feature, and a ridiculously vigorous shortwave for this lead time all of the pieces are there for a significant storm. where it goes is anyone's guess at this point but this is a very, very high end signal. could impact the coast or the Lakes, no way for anyone to really tell right now

what three Ninas in a row will do to some mfs

i really don’t mean to argue… but this is a cutter pattern. a -PNA/+NAO/+EPO and a WAR with the mean track through the Plains this is what we’re going to be seeing, for the most part. they are almost polar opposites i don’t get the pessimism. it’s December 12th and people are seeing ghosts. sure, we could get a cutter, but the upcoming pattern certainly favors coastal systems and cold SWFEs much more than most

why are people fretting over this? i really don’t get it? the TPV is elongated over SE Canada, there’s a ton of cold air displaced, and there’s a strong west based -NAO cutter pattern? absolutely not

the ECMWF basically has the shortwave sit in one spot for days and doesn’t move it at all. absolutely weird stuff i wouldn’t count on this happening. plays into the ECMWF’s overamplification bias as well. i think it broke this run LMAO