brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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the ICON is actually more amped. either this thing is totally cracked out, or it's going to pull an insane coup. my money is on the former
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a good analogy is like if you're playing Texas Hold'em... the longwave pattern is the cards in your hands, and the shortwaves are the other players' cards / cards on the table this pattern is like being dealt pocket Kings. really good hand, and it increases the odds that you'll win the pot. your odds are much higher than like 2/7, which would be like an awful pattern however, if the cards on the table are 2, 6, 7, Q, A, the Kings don't look that good anymore and someone can beat you. this is equivalent to a random TPV lobe or Pacific shortwave deamplifying the flow. and sometimes, with a bad pattern (the 2 / 7), sometimes you get a well timed HP in SE Canada and you "win the hand"
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seems like the GFS looked a bit better honestly but yes, still a longshot
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yup, closes the 500mb low off lmao
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CMC nods to ECMWF with a deeper trough and the TPV trying to nudge into the backside of said trough
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never said it was going to produce, but this is leaps and bounds better than 12z today
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GFS is more consolidated with the trough. this is close also less Pacific crap pouring onto the WC
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there is a tremendous amount of subsurface warmth near the Dateline, which leads me to believe that we have a good shot at a weak to moderate central based Nino next year... there's also never been four Ninas in a row. I think next year (and certainly 2024-25) is when we finally flip the switch to +ENSO. warm neutral at an absolute minimum next year
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the most likely scenario is that we get another favorable period as the Pacific jet retracts and the ULL over AK retrogrades to the Aleutians, would happen around Jan 10th or so. this is a relatively common way to get a nice +PNA/-EPO ridge spike you can start to see that process happen on the EPS here
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imagine tracking potential weather on a weather forum. crazy stuff, I know it's a longshot, but there's nothing in the pipeline for like two weeks, so why not look at it
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looks like the EPS improved on this... seems like a bit more interaction between the S/W and the TPV? might be due to the slightly stronger block
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it is interesting how the EPS still maintains some very strong members off the EC... I'm assuming these were able to phase with the TPV obviously a low chance of this, but I wish I could see how these members pull this off to see what to look for in future runs. seems very all-or-nothing
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i mean... you can know that something is unlikely but still holds some potential, so you can keep an eye on it while not expecting anything that's the correct course of action here. probably not anything, but it's 5-6 days out and the pieces are there, so why not keep tabs on it. who knows. we've seen storms pop up from nothing in the 3-5 day range before and this is a highly amplified, blocky pattern
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yeah I wouldn't kick the can on this one yet, but it'll be tough totally sucks that this coming storm is going to be a day too early and this one likely a day too late. worst possible timing for both
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thought the EPS was a slight improvement from 00z stronger blocking, more interaction with the TPV, and taller ridging into Canada. trough itself is a bit deeper too
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yeah, that's my point haha it was a weak Nino surrounded by Ninas. the base state has predominantly been Nina-ish and I'm assuming this will change once we get a solid mod-strong Nino... there are hints of this occurring next year
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I think we've just been in a persistent -ENSO base state. this should change once we head into a Nino state, which should occur next year, definitely the year after
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yeah, the GEFS is better with both the amplitude of the vort as well as the ridging over the WC and Canada I agree that I would rather have it showing the storm over Bermuda given how poorly it handled this week's storm
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it makes sense given the wave breaking that would occur given the insanely strong storm this week i mean... how doesn't this force a west-based block?
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pretty easy to see how the block affects the entire waveguide here... it ends up strengthening the +PNA ridging, leading to much more amplified and meridional flow, as well as move the TPV SE into a more favorable area over the 50/50 region
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ECMWF continues the improvements with the blocking as well as the +PNA ridging out west
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HA i forgot there was a thread for that. why in god's name is there a thread for that?
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hahaha let's give it a few days. I do feel pretty decent about this one, though. this is the kind of thing that pops up in the medium range
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the wave midweek next week is worth keeping an eye on we've seen the look out west trend a lot more meridional as well as the blocking over Greenland trend into the Davis Strait, which leads to a farther W, more elongated TPV obviously thread the needle, but there's nothing else on the horizon and this at least has a shot. we've seen setups much crappier than this produce before
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the wave midweek next week is worth keeping an eye on we've seen the look out west trend a lot more meridional as well as the blocking over Greenland trend into the Davis Strait, which leads to a farther W, more elongated TPV obviously thread the needle, but there's nothing else on the horizon and this at least has a shot. we've seen setups much crappier than this produce before
