brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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this is why I don't think this type of bad pattern is sustainable... we're basically getting super Nino'd in a moderate -ENSO. that jet is going to retract and we're going to get a nice +PNA/-EPO when it does
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assigning unreasonable expectations to any pattern is a recipe for failure. there are no guarantees with any pattern granted, it still was very disappointing, but counting your chickens before they hatch never works with the weather. too chaotic
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given the effect of AGW, I think what we're going to be seeing is a lot more winters like 2016... warm for the most part aside from a major storm in the east (or more) so I could see a decade at BWI with three years at 30-50" and three years under 10" with the winters in the decade cumulatively averaging +3 in temp. just a lot more variance this is kind of what we've already been seeing, even up in NYC. a lot less nickel and dime stuff, but many, many more NESIS ranked storms over the last 20 years. you guys have had some bad luck over the last 5 years or so since 2016, but I think it's more chalked up to that and an unfavorable base state more than anything if we flip back to a 2010-2015 esque base state and it's still not snowy, then we'll know something is wrong. until then, just wait for +ENSO... which should be next year
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next three weeks. do you mean 10 days? because pretty much everyone would agree with you there
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last winter had a historic blizzard lmao one seems to find a way to happen every year aside from the complete shutouts (2011-12, 2019-20), so no need to can an entire winter this early
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the charts are all we have
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the pattern will flip around the 10th as the ULL off the WC retrogrades westward towards the Aleutians when the Pacific jet retracts this is well agreed upon by ensembles and it makes sense, so this is a break more than anything else. the hints of Scandinavian ridging also point towards renewed blocking once into the last couple weeks of the month. the -EPO/+PNA would also scour out any residual Pacific air relatively quickly, so there wouldn't be a week or two of delay, especially under peak climo
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we are going to torch through the first week of January however, there is increasing confidence that the Pacific jet will retract after this timeframe. this will push the ULL over AK back to the Aleutians, likely allowing for a strong -EPO/+PNA to develop, similar to what we're seeing now. you can actually see the poleward wave breaking at 200mb. pretty good signal blocking isn't showing its hand on the ensembles yet, but blocking in Jan is quite likely given how blocky this month was. the persistent negative anomalies in the Atlantic also point towards its development so, we're going to have a reprieve, but it should be only that. winter may return in earnest around the 10th or so... Arctic flow would make Canada cold very quickly, and we're in peak climo at that point
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we are going to torch through the first week of January however, there is increasing confidence that the Pacific jet will retract after this timeframe. this will push the ULL over AK back to the Aleutians, likely allowing for a strong -EPO/+PNA to develop, similar to what we're seeing now. you can actually see the poleward wave breaking at 200mb. pretty good signal blocking isn't showing its hand on the ensembles yet, but blocking in Jan is quite likely given how blocky this month was. the persistent negative anomalies in the Atlantic also point towards its development so, we're going to have a reprieve, but it should be only that. winter may return in earnest around the 10th or so... Arctic flow would make Canada cold very quickly, and we're in peak climo at that point
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we are going to torch through the first week of January however, there is increasing confidence that the Pacific jet will retract after this timeframe. this will push the ULL over AK back to the Aleutians, likely allowing for a strong -EPO/+PNA to develop, similar to what we're seeing now. you can actually see the poleward wave breaking at 200mb. pretty good signal blocking isn't showing its hand on the ensembles yet, but blocking in Jan is quite likely given how blocky this month was. the persistent negative anomalies in the Atlantic also point towards its development so, we're going to have a reprieve, but it should be only that. winter may return in earnest around the 10th or so... Arctic flow would make Canada cold very quickly, and we're in peak climo at that point
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persistent amplification trend ongoing over the last 8 runs of the GEFS. the trough is ticking westward, too
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yeah, I'm not expecting anything here, but I've seen crazier things happen at 4-5 days out we're not getting anything until the week of like Jan 8th, so why not track it haha
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just a bit of a trend from the GFS here haha
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the ICON is actually more amped. either this thing is totally cracked out, or it's going to pull an insane coup. my money is on the former
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a good analogy is like if you're playing Texas Hold'em... the longwave pattern is the cards in your hands, and the shortwaves are the other players' cards / cards on the table this pattern is like being dealt pocket Kings. really good hand, and it increases the odds that you'll win the pot. your odds are much higher than like 2/7, which would be like an awful pattern however, if the cards on the table are 2, 6, 7, Q, A, the Kings don't look that good anymore and someone can beat you. this is equivalent to a random TPV lobe or Pacific shortwave deamplifying the flow. and sometimes, with a bad pattern (the 2 / 7), sometimes you get a well timed HP in SE Canada and you "win the hand"
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seems like the GFS looked a bit better honestly but yes, still a longshot
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yup, closes the 500mb low off lmao
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CMC nods to ECMWF with a deeper trough and the TPV trying to nudge into the backside of said trough
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never said it was going to produce, but this is leaps and bounds better than 12z today
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GFS is more consolidated with the trough. this is close also less Pacific crap pouring onto the WC
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there is a tremendous amount of subsurface warmth near the Dateline, which leads me to believe that we have a good shot at a weak to moderate central based Nino next year... there's also never been four Ninas in a row. I think next year (and certainly 2024-25) is when we finally flip the switch to +ENSO. warm neutral at an absolute minimum next year
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the most likely scenario is that we get another favorable period as the Pacific jet retracts and the ULL over AK retrogrades to the Aleutians, would happen around Jan 10th or so. this is a relatively common way to get a nice +PNA/-EPO ridge spike you can start to see that process happen on the EPS here
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imagine tracking potential weather on a weather forum. crazy stuff, I know it's a longshot, but there's nothing in the pipeline for like two weeks, so why not look at it
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looks like the EPS improved on this... seems like a bit more interaction between the S/W and the TPV? might be due to the slightly stronger block
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it is interesting how the EPS still maintains some very strong members off the EC... I'm assuming these were able to phase with the TPV obviously a low chance of this, but I wish I could see how these members pull this off to see what to look for in future runs. seems very all-or-nothing
