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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. it’ll be tough for ensemble means to do that until a shortwave is identified, which is absolute hell in this type of pattern
  2. it’s moving up in time. this doesn’t seem like a head fake
  3. i just like seeing the cross polar flow. we would at least get Canada ice cold with this kind of look, and there are hints of transient blocking too with the ridging over eastern Europe. solid -AO will definitely help displace the TPV GEFS might have a SE ridge on the mean, but there will be lots of cold air around in an active pattern. the GEPS is very nice and the EPS is coming out great too
  4. @SnowenOutThere here are the GEFS individual members at 360 hours. notice the spread on these. some are ice cold with some -NAOs, some are torches, and most lie somewhere in between. most of these are serviceable, though, and most have a ridge in AK to get cold air into Canada and the US, which is the most important part a decent portion of those actually have strong Scandinavian ridging, which is a precursor to -NAOs
  5. it’s just that the 500mb maps are also a mean. there is likely a lot of variation within each of the individual members, and this upcoming pattern is a huge improvement due to lots of available cold in Canada so, there is the potential for snow if we can get the boundary far enough south. pretty big if, but it’s 100 times better than the pattern we have now… the upcoming pattern at least has a legit connection to Siberia. both the 12z GEFS and GEPS agree on that. there are also some hints of transient blocking
  6. boundary waves with lots of available cold in Canada is how you guys cashed in during March 2015, though it’s definitely possible to score in that kind of pattern. just need to hope there’s a good cold press, which is certainly possible here
  7. snowfall means at range are somewhat useful for determining what periods have increased snowfall potential. was just posting to show that there is still decent potential late in the month due to the all the cold air on this side of the globe it’s not rocket science. there isn’t much else to post anyway, all of this stuff is like 10 days away
  8. ironically, this is the snowiest GEFS run that we’ve seen in a while
  9. honestly, with that being the case, it is really nice seeing Canada get some legit Arctic air involved. this would produce at some point once the trough gets kicked east there's a lot more ways to win when you have fresh cold air
  10. it’s a 5 day average i’m just happy to see legit cross polar flow. i’m not that worried about the ridge axis… Feb 2015 had the axis along the WC with a raging +NAO and that worked wonders pretty much all patterns run the risk for cutters, but i will definitely take my chances with what all of the ensembles are agreeing upon
  11. i mean, the insane December blocking pattern did happen. just had absolutely awful luck… blows, but what can you do
  12. GEPS is a straight pants tent. now we wait to see if the EPS agrees
  13. yeah, there’s legit arctic flow here. would get everyone cold quickly. this is a great pattern verbatim
  14. EPS has a much stronger trailing vort. should be some nice indies here that develop sooner offshore
  15. I honestly think this is a bit more longitude dependent than latitude dependent. NE seems to get flooded with warmth in a lot of these solutions but yes, this is a weird setup, but I'm just happy that this seems to be trending towards something that has legit potential rather than a tepid piece of crap. I wonder if we'll continue to see the trailing wave dig with the first one just kind of shearing out
  16. the reason for the mess in the Pacific is from mountain torque too. the +EAMT caused the jet extension and super -EPO, but it was too much of a good thing, so to speak we'll see the jet retract due the -EAMT already taking place... this should take a week to 10 days after it occurs, which brings us around the 17-20th where the ensembles are flipping the look out west. this retrogression makes sense too. we aren't in a super Nino where these jet extensions have tropical support trust me, this shit is frustrating, but all you can do it wait and try and make a good call based on what you have, and it looks like another torch from the 15-22nd or so, then a flip to a possibly legit cold pattern. I don't think it's a head fake
  17. I will take my chances with a 500mb pass like that. that's sick
  18. nice shift on the ECMWF... weaker primary with a faster transfer this is a sick mid level look too. you can do muchhhhh worse
  19. I'm also not really concerned with the GFS showing crap like that quasi-hurricane later in the run since it has been absolutely awful since its "upgrade" the ECMWF has been schooling it consistently at Day 5. old habits die hard lmao
  20. CMC trended towards a stronger trailing wave and has earlier secondary development
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