brooklynwx99

i mean, the insane December blocking pattern did happen. just had absolutely awful luck… blows, but what can you do

GEPS is a straight pants tent. now we wait to see if the EPS agrees

we hope and pray

yeah, there’s legit arctic flow here. would get everyone cold quickly. this is a great pattern verbatim

both kind of ridiculous, honestly

EPS has a much stronger trailing vort. should be some nice indies here that develop sooner offshore

I honestly think this is a bit more longitude dependent than latitude dependent. NE seems to get flooded with warmth in a lot of these solutions but yes, this is a weird setup, but I'm just happy that this seems to be trending towards something that has legit potential rather than a tepid piece of crap. I wonder if we'll continue to see the trailing wave dig with the first one just kind of shearing out

the reason for the mess in the Pacific is from mountain torque too. the +EAMT caused the jet extension and super -EPO, but it was too much of a good thing, so to speak we'll see the jet retract due the -EAMT already taking place... this should take a week to 10 days after it occurs, which brings us around the 17-20th where the ensembles are flipping the look out west. this retrogression makes sense too. we aren't in a super Nino where these jet extensions have tropical support trust me, this shit is frustrating, but all you can do it wait and try and make a good call based on what you have, and it looks like another torch from the 15-22nd or so, then a flip to a possibly legit cold pattern. I don't think it's a head fake

I will take my chances with a 500mb pass like that. that's sick

nice shift on the ECMWF... weaker primary with a faster transfer this is a sick mid level look too. you can do muchhhhh worse

I'm also not really concerned with the GFS showing crap like that quasi-hurricane later in the run since it has been absolutely awful since its "upgrade" the ECMWF has been schooling it consistently at Day 5. old habits die hard lmao

CMC trended towards a stronger trailing wave and has earlier secondary development

CMC is a lot more favorable with the trailing energy... more amplified and separated from the "initial" wave

it was another one of those lamer winters in NYC, but the March 13 storm was pretty incredible. thundersleet in the metro and 6-12" of snow/sleet pack with 1-2 feet of snow in NW NJ

I think we're going to see a lot more winters like 2016 that end up way warmer than normal, but you get an absolute monster storm or two out of it the amount of NESIS storms over the last 20 years has skyrocketed. there's a 18 - 24" snowstorm almost every single year now since 2009-10 aside from the shutouts: 2009-10: numerous MECS 2010-11: numerous MECS - BDB, mid-Jan and late-Jan bombs 2011-12: sucked 2012-13: Nemo 2013-14: Valentine's Day? constant cold and snow though 2014-15: Juno 2015-16: Jan 2016 blizzard 2016-17: Pi Day storm 2017-18: Jan 2018 blizzard and March 2018 nor'easters 2018-19: honestly drawing a blank here 2019-20: sucked 2020-21: Dec 2020 monster storm and Feb 2021 blizzard 2021-22: late Jan blizzard 2022-23: who knows so yes, it's getting warmer and the nickel and dime stuff is going by the wayside a bit, but this is about as explosive as it's ever been. this is not a normal frequency for large snow events in the NE US

there's actually been a consistent trend to strengthen the NS vort on the backside of the trough near Iowa. we probably want to see more separation between the main trough, as well as a continued increase in strength to get the redevelopment scenario the nice part about this solution is that the baroclinic zone is already dragged south by the first wave, so the airmass is "reset" a bit and it isn't as stagnant the EPS control shows what happens when this NS vort becomes the main player... this is an unlikely solution, but it bears watching to see if that NS vort can save the day here

there's actually been a consistent trend to strengthen the NS vort on the backside of the trough near Iowa from the EPS. we probably want to see more separation between the main trough, as well as a continued increase in strength to get the redevelopment scenario the nice part about this solution is that the baroclinic zone is already dragged south by the first wave, so the airmass is "reset" a bit and it isn't as stagnant the EPS control shows what happens when this NS vort becomes the main player... this is an unlikely solution, but it bears watching to see if that NS vort can save the day here

this is a very cold pattern, it'll just take a few days to scour out the warmth. there's cross polar flow and part of the TPV is getting dislodged into Canada

CMC looks interesting. that NS wave would help a lot with compressing heights

the only interesting thing here is that the ensembles have picked out a NS vort that's ahead of the main trough. some of the EPS members turn this into a quasi-50/50 low and produce legit coastals. there were a handful at 00z with significant snow to the coastal plain down to DC actually haha it's definitely a longshot, but we would want to see that piece trend stronger to lower downstream heights and maybe even interact with the departing confluence

i don’t think it’s that. i think it’s that the 50/50 just moves out too quickly due to the lack of blocking, which is why a -NAO is so important

GFS is way stronger with the confluence FWIW. pretty significant difference

it’s best not to get too worked up over things you can’t control. goes for stuff other than weather too

at least the ECMWF is on a bit of an island as to how it’s handling the confluence? just crazy to see it lose the 50/50 like that completely in a day it’s usually much more consistent than that

absolutely horrific handling of the Atlantic by the EPS. like not even close compared to 12z yesterday