brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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nice Miller A signal on the EPS for next week -
miller A signal also showing up on the EPS, same timeframe as the ECMWF OP looks like we have two other potential winter weather threats: late this weekend and the 25-27th
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we kneel and pray
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the EPS is pretty much phased at this point, which is good for later on IMO even if it's a rainer for SNE south verbatim
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the NAO ridging is the kicker for NYC south, especially for you guys... if it trends stronger, it'll force the TPV into SE Canada and lead to a lot more confluence higher chance of ending on the right side of the gradient. encouraging for sure
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you as well as anyone would know what came after 2001-02 with a flip to a pretty legit Nino... coming off of multiple Ninas
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the -PNA also becomes less and less of an annoyance once into Feb due to the shorter wavelengths, too definitely not sold that this will be a canonical Nina Feb. what about this winter has been canonical in the slightest? more like a Nino, honestly
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I would certainly take my chances form NYC south in this type of pattern cross polar flow, some blocking, and a source region that's finally favorable. this is active too with the STJ open. there's always a risk for cutters, but I like this type of pattern for overrunning, which are "easier" storms that can still deliver for a larger area
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I know, it's been frustrating, but all we have is what's in front of us. the change occurs around Day 8, too, so this isn't complete fantasy at this point
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you guys are going to get rocked if this is correct... this is even good down to NYC. the TPV is in a good spot here, there's cross polar flow, and even some blocking I know that pessimism is rampant, but you can make up a ton of ground in this type of active setup
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the main difference IMO is that the TPV will be on our side of the globe this go around, potentially in a great spot in E Canada. IIRC, it was in Europe / Asia for late December
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if the gradient sets up here, then this could be a fun pattern for everyone. this is cold, and the TPV is displaced in a really good spot... lowers heights in the 50/50 region and would act as confluence
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hopefully this is correct. this would be good down here near NYC we finally look to have all of the cold air on our side of the globe, and the TPV itself is in a nice spot, potentially forcing confluence over the 50/50 region. would certainly be active with lots of HP over the top this isn't fantasy, either. the TPV gets displaced from Greenland around day 7
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hopefully this is correct. this would be a great pattern for you guys, and even good down here near NYC we finally look to have all of the cold air on our side of the globe, and the TPV itself is in a nice spot, potentially forcing confluence over the 50/50 region. would certainly be active with lots of HP over the top this isn't fantasy, either. the TPV gets displaced from Greenland around day 7
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heavy breathing
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yeah this is pretty solid, especially for you guys. PV in Hudson Bay, low heights in the 50/50 region, -EPO, and some hints of blocking the -PNA likely flexes the SE ridge at times, but there's a lot of cold air in North America lights out though!!!!!!!!!!! super ugly!!!!!!
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he’s always been pompous af. even earlier in the year he said the pattern was unbelievable. like a SE US KU pattern. and slithered back on it
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some troughing over CA in these patterns isn’t bad, but that’s just overwhelming
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part of it is climate change, another part of it is just shit luck in a Nina-dominated stretch. that’s really it there’s gonna be more >30” and <10” winters at BWI with less winters actually near average. just gotta be able to take the good with the bad
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nice black hole over southern CA lmao the GFS has actually been remarkably consistent with this, hopefully it’s wrong but who knows at this point. these ridges have just been orienting themselves horribly since last year
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I know what you mean. not really sure why it happens, either. probably a mixture of some bad luck and Nina crap, who knows
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it’s a long range OP run
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yeah, the EPS is highly favorable
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EPS is really nice looking too. all major ensembles are in agreement on the -EPO/-AO/-NAO
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GEFS is loaded. completely displaces the TPV with a legit -NAO signal to boot a -EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern like this would be quite fun
