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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. the GEFS has pretty much totally caved to the EPS/GEPS with its handling of the WC S/W. looks like next weekend is now a legit threat given that the models are kicking a shortwave under the block this is probably the highest potential pattern since March 2018. there will be multiple opportunities for high-end threats
  2. meteorological intuition won out. thank God lmao I was honestly getting a bit worried for a little while
  3. nice subtle shift here to provide more wave spacing with the 50/50
  4. this is the most loaded pattern I have seen since 2016, probably. multiple opportunities for high-end threats
  5. GEFS has finally come full circle to the EPS/GEPS. astounding
  6. MUCH more amped S/W diving into the Rockies on this run. there has been a total cave by the GEFS today. it’s not really a question at this point IMO. something will pop on many members this run
  7. here’s the main thing IMO… look at the trend to have less and less interaction between the ULL in the Pacific and our S/W of interest, as well as the stronger blocking this lack of interaction (now even a ridge on the 00z run today!) allows for the S/W to escape E rather than get sucked W. this is a huge development towards the more favorable foreign models
  8. this could be someone’s new avatar that is absurd lmao
  9. the CMC does eject a stronger vort into the flow… this is really what does it
  10. yeah I think this continues to move towards the EPS/GEFS line of thinking. definitely not in the other direction
  11. either way, the main thing will be how the ENS behave. this is such a cracked out and exotic pattern that the OP runs are going to vary wildly
  12. we FINALLY have actual vorticity in the flow on the GFS. can’t believe the day is here
  13. oh shit. it might actually send a legit vort into the blocked flow. differences from 18z are night and day
  14. wow. this is way different. game on if that southern piece gets booted east
  15. I wouldn’t be so sure with the suppressive pattern. this is probably as good of a pattern as possible for you guys to get late season snow
  16. GFS looks like it’ll eject a healthier vort. block is stronger too
  17. haha i am living in Morristown 95% of the time tho. grew up in Brooklyn and moved out to the burbs for work anyway, hopefully we keep the momentum going. the whole MA needs it (yes, including NYC haha)
  18. thank you! posters from way back when helped me do the same when I was a kid so i try and help others gain the same insights that I did! they’re fascinating. and trust me, I learn every day both at my job and even here
  19. it’s pretty much the same. not really worth posting about
  20. some people, like myself and a handful of others, find the way weather patterns evolve interesting and try and forecast them. and then try and determine threats and track them too
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