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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    GFS making the same changes. awesome 12z suite so far
  2. brooklynwx99
    not true, the ENS show many members that have snow. just has to be wrapped up, which is certainly a possibility. the OP runs just haven't explicitly shown these scenarios yet
  3. brooklynwx99
    CMC completely caved to the ECMWF... total change in the synoptic evolution
  4. brooklynwx99
    this is laughable. complete change in the synoptic evolution
  5. brooklynwx99
    lmao worlds apart here. this is as big of a shift as you'll see at this range
  6. brooklynwx99
    CMC is significantly improved with the heights over the PAC NW
  7. brooklynwx99
    yup, ICON was a pretty nice improvement
  8. brooklynwx99
    the key here with this weekend’s threat is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this EPS run does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream
  9. brooklynwx99
    the key here is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this EPS run does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream
  10. brooklynwx99
    that small improvement over the Pacific leads to a much larger improvement over the OH Valley... this is almost back to where we were at 12z yesterday again, the key here is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream
  11. brooklynwx99
    trying to resolve that chaotic Pacific flow is going to be absolute hell for modeling
  12. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF looks a bit better with more separation between the ULL and S/W of interest... more ridging in the SW US as well. we need the ULL to buckle and create a semblance of a +PNA if we want any chance for a larger storm here EPS is doing the same... good to see that trend reverse
  13. brooklynwx99
    in terms of climo, just from a statistical standpoint, the odds of seeing anything more than plowable on the week of the 20-27th are about the same as the 13-20th. the dynamic outcomes of the seasonal transition probably outweigh the sun angle stuff. it's really the week of the 27th into April when things fall off a cliff
  14. brooklynwx99
    they were good, just not enough. GFS has been absolutely lost with this setup, though
  15. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the ICON made a really nice improvement with the PNA
  16. brooklynwx99
    12z looked great today, though. not seeing the issue there
  17. brooklynwx99
    it’s one run, this is 6 days out, and this is still a strong signal. jeez
  18. brooklynwx99
    just whine
  19. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the GFS doesn’t buckle that ULL off the BC coast, it’s an outlier in that regard. pretty much every other model does. it has a fundamentally different evolution
  20. brooklynwx99
    hahaha honestly, you got it down pat. I do think that you guys can certainly see appreciable snow out of this, but it will be tougher with a more Miller B type setup however, if the wave digs enough like on the EPS, you guys can cash in, would just take more doing. however, this kind of 500mb setup favors NYC northward we will see, though! there are 6 more days and hopefully we can get this thing to dig and really bomb out for a DCA-NYC-BOS storm
  21. brooklynwx99
    this is insane
  22. brooklynwx99
    the UKMET did, as a matter of fact. full +PNA during the evolution
  23. brooklynwx99
    trust me, that kind of 500mb evolution presents high end potential
  24. brooklynwx99
    watch how the block forces the S/W underneath... it leads to rapid intensification and negative tilting. big signal for a strong Miller B heights are actually decreasing out ahead of the trough due to the confluence! very dynamic setup verbatim
  25. brooklynwx99
    watch how the block forces the S/W underneath... it leads to rapid intensification and negative tilting. big signal for a strong Miller B heights are actually decreasing out ahead of the trough due to the confluence! very dynamic setup verbatim
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