brooklynwx99

FWIW the GEPS disagrees with the CMC and actually looks decent with the second wave. let's see what the ECMWF / EPS think in a bit

it's more of a lack of amplification for the third wave. a stronger wave would bring in more of the cold air due to the stronger northerly flow while a weak wave only skirts it and keeps the airmass marginal. it's not an airmass issue

i know that the off runs are supposed to be just as accurate as the 00/12z runs, but I can’t even tell you how many times I see crap like this

the GFS keeps amping the vort up for the second wave… let’s see how it turns out

ha, the stronger NS in the end actually leads to a stronger first wave. more energy just gets sheared out rooting against this evolution, definitely a lower ceiling

FWIW the ICON should be improved with the second wave. less initial stream interaction and a stronger vort

GEFS is more held back with the second wave. better looking 250mb jet too

if there was one place i’d want to see the GFS at this range, it would be here. still way too progressive

250mb jet is stronger and more favorably oriented compared to 12z

this is a nice look with the strong southern stream shortwave and confluence in place

storm cancel jk I would actually be worried about suppression rather than a cutter with the TPV in that spot

here she comes

GEFS is on the right track for the first wave. both colder and wetter

this is nice from the GEFS. better ridging showing up out west and lower heights initially. it'll be easier to snow from that first wave if the SE ridge is pressed a bit

the reason why this cuts is because of a late phase with a vort coming onto the WC. if this is a phantom vort or is just like 12-24 hours slower, this is a monster storm. I'll consider this a good run

finally, a legit antecedent airmass to work with

Oh Canada? edit: it does phase at the end, but this is still a very intriguing setup

THIS could do something, though. confluence rolling in with a much more potent wave than the GFS

the main thing is that we have a legit southern stream wave and very cold air to the north. almost a Nino-ish look with that wave. you can get serious overrunning that way with a thermal gradient that strong

the vort is less amplified and the TPV is farther S. both of these lead to a suppressed solution. I'd rather deal with that at this range than a cutter, though

you know, you did well with January, but I have no idea why you have to be so hyperbolic about warmth all the time you're allowed to say there is the potential for some snow along with legit cold over the next 10 days. you aren't going to keel over and die for doing it

yeah, this is a nice signature. more than cold enough. there's actually good ensemble agreement here... the GEFS and GEPS are both on board with this potential event precip doesn't look amazing, but this is due more to differences in timing more than anything at this point. precip could end up robust with a thermal gradient like that

GFS improved pretty dramatically at 06z, especially out west. a bit far too far S, but this is a major overrunning event for the MA verbatim hopefully it's not a blip. seems to be more in line with other guidance. this is our first legit shot IMO

March 2018 is another good example of a prolific -PNA/-NAO month for much of the northeast and northern MA. there was a NESIS storm that gave N MD more than 10"

a good recent example of a -PNA/-NAO that worked in the northern MA was in late Jan into mid Feb 2021. the NYC metro into NJ saw a historic blizzard and a few other storms, bringing them to 26" on the month. yes, it wasn't great for you guys, but again, that's a matter of luck IMO. if the confluence associated with that storm was a bit slower or farther S, it would have been you guys getting smoked this is honestly quite similar to the late Dec pattern this year. again, just goes to show how much of this is really just dependent on luck, especially the farther S you go. as variance increases, the more things need to line up correctly. this pattern could have easily produced a major snowstorm, but the devil was in the details. what can you do?