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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    oh shit. it might actually send a legit vort into the blocked flow. differences from 18z are night and day
  2. brooklynwx99
    wow. this is way different. game on if that southern piece gets booted east
  3. brooklynwx99
    I wouldn’t be so sure with the suppressive pattern. this is probably as good of a pattern as possible for you guys to get late season snow
  4. brooklynwx99
    GFS looks like it’ll eject a healthier vort. block is stronger too
  5. brooklynwx99
    haha i am living in Morristown 95% of the time tho. grew up in Brooklyn and moved out to the burbs for work anyway, hopefully we keep the momentum going. the whole MA needs it (yes, including NYC haha)
  6. brooklynwx99
    thank you! posters from way back when helped me do the same when I was a kid so i try and help others gain the same insights that I did! they’re fascinating. and trust me, I learn every day both at my job and even here
  7. brooklynwx99
    it’s pretty much the same. not really worth posting about
  8. brooklynwx99
    some people, like myself and a handful of others, find the way weather patterns evolve interesting and try and forecast them. and then try and determine threats and track them too
  9. brooklynwx99
    haha trust me, myself and some others here have been tracking this threat window since the SSWE popped up on radar. this threat window is like a month in the making lmao
  10. brooklynwx99
    looks like the GEFS is finally caving towards the EPS/GEPS with its handling of the WC S/W it now has a legitimate storm signal with multiple <980 SLPs that are suppressed. this is the ideal spot for the GEFS to be IMO. strong and suppressed. this is the first run that has had anything close to this kind of coastal signal
  11. brooklynwx99
    it's also worth noting that if there is a legit coastal, it will almost certainly be cold enough. there would be no concerns about precip type if you have a sub-1000mb low passing to your south
  12. brooklynwx99
    here we go. the GEFS has a legitimate storm signal with multiple <980 SLPs that are suppressed. this is the ideal spot for the GEFS to be IMO. strong and suppressed. this is the first run with anything even close to this kind of coastal signal straight up cave. I'm becoming more and more confident that the EPS has the right idea with the overall evolution
  13. brooklynwx99
    definitely an improvement on the GEFS. should get more of the vorticity out of the west on this run. notice the increase in heights over S CA
  14. brooklynwx99
    the CMC's evolution does not agree with its own ensemble... the GEPS agrees with the EPS. as of right now, I am highly prioritizing the ENS due to the uncertainty of the pattern features also the GFS does end up popping a big coastal at the end of the run. there will be lots of chances in this pattern. not one and done
  15. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the GFS basically retrogrades the main vort into the ocean instead of shooting it east like the GEPS/EPS. it's so different from everything else that I still can't really believe its depiction yet either way, it seems like it's keying in on the later timeframe between the 13-16th. either way, we will probably get something. don't see how we get out of this unscathed
  16. brooklynwx99
    idk. I feel like people are focusing more on the +50 meter anomaly dying SE ridge instead of the other highly anomalous pattern drivers that will make more of a difference sure, there could be an unfavorable outcome, but it would not be due to that... suppression or a lack of a vort entirely is more likely to screw this I don't even mean to be argumentative. I'm just kinda confused
  17. brooklynwx99
    how? there's going to be mild height rises ahead of a trough like that, and there's a beastly 50/50 in place. not to mention the blocking
  18. brooklynwx99
    the whole evolution is wild. the S/W slides under the block and amplifies as the block decays. 50/50 in place. it's a great setup
  19. brooklynwx99
    lmao if this is the pattern projected by the best ENS at 8 days out and everyone wants to downplay it for whatever reason, then whatever, but it's a bit foolish to me. I personally don't understand it at all
  20. brooklynwx99
    that has absolutely nothing to do with this event
  21. brooklynwx99
    I personally don't care what the snowfall outputs are when the longwave pattern is this favorable. something big usually pops there, and it often favors BOS to DCA compare this to the pattern one day before all of NYC's 18"+ storms. the pattern shown here and the composite are very similar. that's why it's exciting
  22. brooklynwx99
    I get what you mean, but I feel like you're missing the forest for the trees here. the longwave setup is almost perfect. will it produce? we can't say that yet, but this pattern gives us a much, much better shot than normal
  23. brooklynwx99
    lmao it's like 8 days out. the ensembles are way more important than the OP the OP is basically betting on one ENS member to give you snow. makes no sense at this range
  24. brooklynwx99
    I say this with all due respect, but I am not sure what else you'd want to look for on a Day 8 ENS output for major storm potential. it checks every box I don't care about snowfall output when I see that high-end 500mb configuration. lots of members pop coastals, but of course there's going to be a lot of spread at this range when 52 members are involved
  25. brooklynwx99
    the bang usually occurs when the -NAO decays. that's why this signal is so compelling I do think that the models are overdoing just how fast the NAO decays, though. we should see some semblance of it for much of the month, but this is the main event
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