brooklynwx99

it generally is, but you'll never see that on a mean. I just like to see the trend towards blocking developing, especially when there are stratospheric impacts over the next week or so... makes it feel a little bit more secure since there'd be a particular reason for it

so much anger

it's not shredded, it's just south. even adjusting for ratios, that's still 6-8" of heavy, wet snow

the AO plot that is being posted is through the 20th or so. any impacts from the SSW, if it occurs, would be felt in March, so the tweet is a bit intellectually dishonest. but that's par for the course there if one is going to use model guidance, it should go out far enough, and the GEFS extended and Weeklies both show a -NAO favored, likely from the SPV disruption/split

yup, less progressive with the trailing wave

i know what you're saying, but this is a super dynamic evolution verbatim and would produce legit deform banding but yes, I agree, this would be tough to pull off. but certainly doable!

i think this would actually stick to everything verbatim. absolutely dumping at 32-33? yup what a wild evolution. I mean, it's certainly weird, but if it keeps showing up I can't totally throw it out. it's like a late March storm

if we're going to go on Twitter to get our ideas, might as well get them from someone who researches this stuff. Lee doesn't honk either, so it's striking seeing him use this kind of verbiage. SSWs are kind of all or nothing when they're that strong, but I'm fine with going for broke at this point

I think the main reason for that is the major SSW event that the weeklies are predicting. pretty much every member flips zonal winds negative, and some do for a prolonged period of time. this would be a serious reason to believe in a shake-up this is also getting to within a medium range timeframe for this kind of stuff... this isn't 2-3 weeks out as it's been all winter. the initial disruption occurs in a few days, and the strong dipole over Greenland is a classic way to get strong heat fluxes into the stratosphere. in other words, I don't believe that this is voodoo, so to speak. the pattern that's causing the house of cards to collapse is currently ongoing the mean has 10 m/s easterlies between the 13-17th... taking into account a lag of about three weeks, this takes us to the first week of March, which is when the Weeklies and extended GEFS both develop pretty legit blocking given the lead time. there's an actual 50/50 signal with a trough into Europe. both the AO and NAO flip solidly negative, which makes sense given an obliterated SPV it's also peculiar that blocking hasn't returned since the spell in December... almost invariably, blocking returns at some point in the winter after coming on that strong in December. I don't have the stats here, but the correlation between highly anomalous Dec blocking and returning blocking in Jan-Mar is very high either way, I'm honestly intrigued about March now, and I know that @40/70 Benchmark has been for a while, too. obviously, the standard caveats apply with the SSW stuff... the effects still need to couple to the troposphere, after all, but this is a legitimate pattern driver that can deliver some anomalous blocking. at least it's something to think about while the blinds are closed from like the 13th until the last week of the month. it's also worth noting that Feb 2018 also absolutely roasted before March happened

the GFS has a pretty exotic evolution... it amplifies the trailing energy to the point that it cuts off from the flow and crushes the MA. wouldn't say that this is impossible, but I obviously want to see other models see this kind of thing definitely caught me off guard though. was NOT expecting to see this

definitely an amplified look at 500mb on the GEFS... hopefully we can find a way to depress heights initially, otherwise it'll be difficult to get a good track out of this nevertheless, it is looking more likely that we can see a legit storm, so it's worth keeping an eye on

twitter

no blocking

still a pretty nice signal for something on the 11-13th on the EPS... lots of coastal lows on there. probably a decent amount of rainers too, but not concerned with p-type as of now would be thread-the-needle. but whatever

never said it was likely. just something to peek at if you're bored

still a pretty nice signal for something on the 11-13th on the EPS... lots of coastal lows on there. probably a decent amount of rainers too, but not concerned with p-type as of now

idk. there were March 2018 and February 2021 which both forced the canonical -NAO trough response and some pretty prolific snow for much of the E US I wouldn't say that the -NAO linked up with the SE ridge for this past December. the TPV just dumped out west, which is really just a matter of chaos more than the -NAO being suboptimal, and we had the system move too far W. a follow up wave arrived, but it was a day too late and deamplified as the pattern broke down. but I would not say that there is a SE ridge here... the TPV could have easily been displaced farther E, but that was the way the cookie crumbled there give us that pattern 10 times and we would cash in 7 or 8 times... you do run the 20% chance of getting screwed tho I do share some of the same concerns as you, tho. -PDO periods are never very fun, but hopefully the change back to a Nino base state at some point will help cool the W Atl and also lead to more WC ridging

I think this will change as we get tropical forcing to shift during a Nino, hopefully next year. the MJO "wants" to be in 4-5-6 since it positively feeds back onto the tropical forcing and dies once into 7-8-1 due to destructive interference with ENSO. once into a Nino, we'll see the tropical forcing move E, encouraging an Aleutian Low and riding into AK and the WC... Phases 7-8-1 will finally be easier to obtain due to positive feedback once we do get that Nino base state, I would expect much of the cold to dump into the Plains and East rather than West and Rockies. we've had 5 Ninas in the last 7 years lmao something has to give there. I don't think any of this is permanent

psychosis

there was literally no way that anyone could have foreseen that happening. just really shit luck. roll the dice with that pattern 10 times and we'd probably get crushed 7 there was also the potent follow up wave that moved onshore 12-24 hours too late and the ridge collapsed out west. an exercise in futility if we had cashed in on both, we'd be talking about this winter much differently

the reason why Ninas usually suck here is because there is constructive interference with the MJO in phases 4, 5, and 6, which is why it always ends up getting warm in those phases. there is destructive interference in the "good phases" of Zones 7, 8, and 1, which is why the waves almost always collapse before they make it there, and they usually don't do much if they do we just can't expect much from Ninas here. they almost always lead to ridging, and it takes anomalous -NAO blocking to beat it down, as seen in 2010-11 and this December... unfortunately, we couldn't cash in this year Ninos are great because there is actually constructive interference in those "good phases" due to tropical forcing that's farther east... this ties into the Aleutian Low that's normally featured in Nino winters. this leads to cold usually getting dumped into the Plains and E US instead of the Rockies we should see a change once we get a solid Nino, which has a good shot of happening next year, definitely the one after

I think CC really just serves to increase variance. we've been stuck in Ninas pretty much since 2015-16 (5 in the last 7 years), and those will dump troughs into the west and try and force a SE ridge, so it's no surprise that the MA hasn't done well, especially when CC is involved. however, once we flip back to a general Nino base state, which may occur next year, I would expect the same kind of anomalous weather as the West has been seeing. there's no reason to think otherwise looking at the last 6 years from Dec-Feb, we can see all of the anomalous cold has been dumped into the NW US and Plains, which is what Ninas usually do. once we flip back to a good stretch of Ninos, I wouldn't be shocked to see the anomalies flip more to what we saw from 2009-10 to 2014-15, where much of the cold was in the E US with warmth over the WC so, overall, I do think that the band will snap the other way, so to speak, over the next year or two. would make little sense for it not to. it's also a bit of people trying to rationalize a shitty stretch of winters, when in reality, they just happen sometimes, and we've been tremendously spoiled over the last 10-15 years. it's not like the earth has profoundly changed in the last 5-10 years... CC doesn't act that quickly

looks like there's some kind of signal between the 10-12th on the EPS as a ridge spikes out west. obviously, lots of caveats apply given the airmass and bland general pattern, but it's probably the next period of interest for those bored of having nothing to pay attention to

yeah, looks like there's a legit signal showing up here now. would like a better airmass, but whatever at this point

FWIW the ECMWF is pretty gung-ho on a weak to moderate Nino next year