brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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a beatdown is a pretty tame way to put it. I can't really remember the last time I've seen a disruption like this from extended ensembles. the SPV is gone here obviously this stuff is very mercurial, but it's worth keeping an eye on for late winter shenanigans. in the meantime, we can focus on stuff through the first week of February -
no changes
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CMC ENS agree with the stronger confluence
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not just a thump lmao probably a straight up Miller B
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confluence stronger on the CMC for the second storm. likely a good thump here
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yup, stronger confluence
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slight change here lmao
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I get that pessimism reigns right now, but this is plenty cold. if we were as cold as Canada, it would be suppressive
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i highly doubt that. below average? seems like a lock tho
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if we are going to win in this pattern, the 18z GFS is how you'd do it TPV drops down, establishes a very cold antecedent airmass, and a SS wave clashes with it and leads to significant overrunning snowfall
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they do have blocking returning that's likely associated with a disruption of the SPV or even a SSW. I would never count on something like this, but it's certainly plausible. weakened SPVs certainly make it easier to disrupt the TPV. it's a wildcard. @40/70 Benchmark has also mentioned this these blocking events are often preceded by strong SE ridging, which is what we'll be seeing for the first half of Feb, most likely
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it does kind of make sense when you see the SPV take a shot like this, though. usually you see the SE ridge strengthen and then blocking develop. there's a 3-4 week lag anyway with the SPV stuff that takes you to the end of February... lines up with the Weeklies weakened SPVs do make blocking easier. it's not out of the question to see blocking return late in the winter
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they have blocking returning, likely due to the obliterated SPV. this is a plausible scenario given a weakened SPV but yeah the first half looks ugly
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looks like it has blocking reload late, possibly due to the SPV weakening. but it does look like we'll get warm for the first half of the month
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Blizzard of 2016
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The “is it ever going to snow again” discussion.
brooklynwx99 replied to psuhoffman's topic in Mid Atlantic
the point I'm trying to make is that CC is just as responsible for winters like 2009-10, 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2015-16 as it is for winters like this one. would make zero sense to say otherwise. like people are picking and choosing what it's applicable for because it's been a crappy few winters and it's bugging me haha -
FWIW the NAM is actually going to be colder than 12z
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NAM is going to be colder than 12z. lower heights downstream
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i think the tenor of this subforum will change when CC contributes to two 30"+ winters for BWI in like three years. the band has to snap the other way. wouldn't make sense if it didn't
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some years are a mixture of generally poor patterns and bad luck. I don't think it's a matter of it never snowing again in marginal setups... it hasn't snowed for much of the NE this winter south of NYC. just a crappy winter but idk, it does get very cold, the ridge out west retrogrades, some ridging pumps as a result, and the TPV is about to move in. it all seems relatively normal to me. just a bunch of crap luck that it doesn't snow
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it's because the ridge out west retrogrades into the ocean, pumping a ridge for a bit. the cold air is coming verbatim Ninas do that crap sometimes. it's annoying
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ha I'm Morristown NJ 90% of the time now, which is much better than Brooklyn, but your point still stands
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idk about you, but I would take 3-6" before a changeover. probably in the minority there, though
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EPS is thumpy for mid next week
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if you're gonna troll me, make them valid for the same time you should at least make me pay you rent with how much I seem to live in your head
