brooklynwx99

CMC is a lot more favorable with the trailing energy... more amplified and separated from the "initial" wave

it was another one of those lamer winters in NYC, but the March 13 storm was pretty incredible. thundersleet in the metro and 6-12" of snow/sleet pack with 1-2 feet of snow in NW NJ

I think we're going to see a lot more winters like 2016 that end up way warmer than normal, but you get an absolute monster storm or two out of it the amount of NESIS storms over the last 20 years has skyrocketed. there's a 18 - 24" snowstorm almost every single year now since 2009-10 aside from the shutouts: 2009-10: numerous MECS 2010-11: numerous MECS - BDB, mid-Jan and late-Jan bombs 2011-12: sucked 2012-13: Nemo 2013-14: Valentine's Day? constant cold and snow though 2014-15: Juno 2015-16: Jan 2016 blizzard 2016-17: Pi Day storm 2017-18: Jan 2018 blizzard and March 2018 nor'easters 2018-19: honestly drawing a blank here 2019-20: sucked 2020-21: Dec 2020 monster storm and Feb 2021 blizzard 2021-22: late Jan blizzard 2022-23: who knows so yes, it's getting warmer and the nickel and dime stuff is going by the wayside a bit, but this is about as explosive as it's ever been. this is not a normal frequency for large snow events in the NE US

there's actually been a consistent trend to strengthen the NS vort on the backside of the trough near Iowa. we probably want to see more separation between the main trough, as well as a continued increase in strength to get the redevelopment scenario the nice part about this solution is that the baroclinic zone is already dragged south by the first wave, so the airmass is "reset" a bit and it isn't as stagnant the EPS control shows what happens when this NS vort becomes the main player... this is an unlikely solution, but it bears watching to see if that NS vort can save the day here

there's actually been a consistent trend to strengthen the NS vort on the backside of the trough near Iowa from the EPS. we probably want to see more separation between the main trough, as well as a continued increase in strength to get the redevelopment scenario the nice part about this solution is that the baroclinic zone is already dragged south by the first wave, so the airmass is "reset" a bit and it isn't as stagnant the EPS control shows what happens when this NS vort becomes the main player... this is an unlikely solution, but it bears watching to see if that NS vort can save the day here

this is a very cold pattern, it'll just take a few days to scour out the warmth. there's cross polar flow and part of the TPV is getting dislodged into Canada

CMC looks interesting. that NS wave would help a lot with compressing heights

the only interesting thing here is that the ensembles have picked out a NS vort that's ahead of the main trough. some of the EPS members turn this into a quasi-50/50 low and produce legit coastals. there were a handful at 00z with significant snow to the coastal plain down to DC actually haha it's definitely a longshot, but we would want to see that piece trend stronger to lower downstream heights and maybe even interact with the departing confluence

i don’t think it’s that. i think it’s that the 50/50 just moves out too quickly due to the lack of blocking, which is why a -NAO is so important

GFS is way stronger with the confluence FWIW. pretty significant difference

it’s best not to get too worked up over things you can’t control. goes for stuff other than weather too

at least the ECMWF is on a bit of an island as to how it’s handling the confluence? just crazy to see it lose the 50/50 like that completely in a day it’s usually much more consistent than that

absolutely horrific handling of the Atlantic by the EPS. like not even close compared to 12z yesterday

thank you Euro, very cool!

the GFS OP was a coastal runner… that’s why it was too warm. the SLP was about to move overhead. if you get the low offshore it snows. a 1040 HP in mid January will be cold enough yes, the airmass isn’t great, but it just has to be cold enough to snow, like 31-32

it’s better to look at the 2m temps of the individual solutions. the mean 2m temps can easily be skewed by a few cutters that torch everyone into the 50s if there’s a coastal bomb with HP in that location, i’m not going to worry about cold

this is insane for this lead time

HP looks stronger here due to slightly improved confluence. nice seeing more NS involvement too

CMC is an absolute crusher. also looks good with antecedent confluence

there was a pretty dramatic improvement in the confluence ahead of the storm, but i’m sorry that you’re too dense to notice

ohhhhhh boy

that is a really nice look at 500mb though. I’ll take that at this range the big thing this run was the positive change in the confluence. that’s the make or break feature

holy shit

GEFS still looks amazing

GEFS is still loaded. don’t fret