brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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at least the ECMWF is on a bit of an island as to how it’s handling the confluence? just crazy to see it lose the 50/50 like that completely in a day it’s usually much more consistent than that
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absolutely horrific handling of the Atlantic by the EPS. like not even close compared to 12z yesterday
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thank you Euro, very cool!
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the GFS OP was a coastal runner… that’s why it was too warm. the SLP was about to move overhead. if you get the low offshore it snows. a 1040 HP in mid January will be cold enough yes, the airmass isn’t great, but it just has to be cold enough to snow, like 31-32
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it’s better to look at the 2m temps of the individual solutions. the mean 2m temps can easily be skewed by a few cutters that torch everyone into the 50s if there’s a coastal bomb with HP in that location, i’m not going to worry about cold
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this is insane for this lead time
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HP looks stronger here due to slightly improved confluence. nice seeing more NS involvement too
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CMC is an absolute crusher. also looks good with antecedent confluence
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there was a pretty dramatic improvement in the confluence ahead of the storm, but i’m sorry that you’re too dense to notice
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ohhhhhh boy
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that is a really nice look at 500mb though. I’ll take that at this range the big thing this run was the positive change in the confluence. that’s the make or break feature
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holy shit
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GEFS still looks amazing
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GEFS is still loaded. don’t fret
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GEFS still looks great. stronger confluence as well and the NS is showing some signs of interaction
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I would pray to god that the OP caves to the ENS. if not, it's a horrible ensemble lmao
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stronger 50/50 this run of the GEFS... definitely a move towards the EPS solution
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yeah, if there's no confluence this system has no shot. rather be worried about suppression than a lack of cold air
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GEFS actually has stronger confluence. looks great
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not even sure what it's trying to do here. just shreds the bowling ball to pieces in a desperate attempt for a phase. kinda grotesque
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either way, the ensembles are king at this range. just seeing a vigorous SLP and strong HP in SE Canada is half the battle. also, the GFS OP blows. it has been performing horribly this winter
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I actually think it looks a bit better. a TPV lobe sits over SE Canada and acts to lower heights over the NE, so the HP is stronger than 12z there also isn't any phasing with the northern stream. let's see where it goes. not going to be the ECMWF, but it's still workable
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actually pretty tame, i am surprised
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I think the most important thing is to see the 50/50 signal strengthen. if we have that, then this threat is legit. if not, it becomes a lot harder to pull off hopefully we have more clarity by the end of the weekend. I do like this event more than the late December one, though. the ridge axis is much more ideal for a coastal storm
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these types of setups have produced for us historically
