brooklynwx99

not gonna lie, the ENS look great so far. the OP runs are cool and all, and their solutions aren’t ridiculous or anything, but the ENS improving holds way more weight at this range

GEPS also much improved. way lower heights over the E US

the GEFS actually has lower heights in the E US before the wave arrives, unlike the OP

i’ll take it. at this range I just wanna see a strong storm consistently showing up if it was perfect people would be saying “well you don’t wanna be in the bullseye 8 days out” so you can never truly win at this range

no, not really, but it's 4-5 days away. confluence is always a bear for modeling so we'll see where it goes

that's not how that works

that is a significant to major event lmao hell, I'm 23 and I know that after living through the 10s in NYC

this is apparently a less exciting solution

love seeing that -NAO and 50/50 dipole. shows that it's a true block

slightly OT as we wait for the ECMWF, but the GEFS synoptically looks pretty great for 3/4. stout -NAO and a 50/50 signal as well with a digging trough over the eastern half of the country this is a good signal for a storm that'll be affected by confluence with the nascent 50/50 and -NAO dipole

interestingly enough, there are a handful of members that jackpot the N Mid-Atlantic and leave NE with scraps. one is even suppressed down to DC looking at the 500mb from each member, it's apparent that these members have higher heights initially, leading to the S/W digging more and ending up farther S. this allows less influence from the primary SLP take these two members, for example. member 28 on the left likely has a progressive front-end thump with the greatest amounts in NNE. however, member 29 on the right has a pretty classic DCA-PHL-NYC axis that is certainly influenced by confluent flow to the N. so, I think this bears a lot of watching. we want to see the S/W amped for a farther S track. all of the members that have this kind of snowfall distribution (members 20, 21, 27, 29) have the same initially amped S/W

interestingly enough, there are a handful of members that jackpot the N Mid-Atlantic and leave NE with scraps. one is even suppressed down to DC looking at the 500mb from each member, it's apparent that these members have higher heights initially, leading to the S/W digging more and ending up farther S. this allows less influence from the primary SLP take these two members, for example. member 28 on the left likely has a progressive front-end thump with the greatest amounts in NNE. however, member 29 on the right has a pretty classic DCA-PHL-NYC axis that is certainly influenced by confluent flow to the N. so, I think this bears a lot of watching, as it seems that the heights out west as the S/W ejects have a significant impact on the amount of latitude gain. all of the members that have this kind of snowfall distribution (members 20, 21, 27, 29) have the same initially amped S/W

the GEFS actually made a move in the colder direction. lower downstream heights and touch more confluence

GFS has more confluence so far

I think you're in a great spot. I would say if we get to 00z and we're in around the same spot, there's going to be a storm. let's get through today and see what happens

GFS is colder at 06z. big increase in the strength of the confluence. what a trend over the last full model cycle

GFS is colder at 06z. big increase in the strength of the confluence. what a trend over the last full model cycle

the PNA isn’t totally what dictates how far N/S this goes… the confluence is just as responsible for that, IMO however, if that ridge in the SW keeps amping as the block kinda shoves the S/W over the WC back a bit, this will also allow for the storm to dig a bit more S and amplify. would be a net positive

it would be difficult to suppress this storm that far S without an established west-based block. those usually have stronger confluence centered over ME with an east-based block, the confluence is a bit more tenuous and storms can gain latitude easier. my cutoff was a bit arbitrary, but i find it hard to see this getting suppressed. it’s far more likely that this trends back N rather than that

the farthest south significant snow can get IMO is like Middlesex County, NJ. you guys in SNE are in a great spot

Christ

pretty clear trend here since 18z yesterday. weaker primary and a much quicker transfer. also note the increasing pressure N of ME

even better. holy crap. a touch more confluence and a stronger, farther S shortwave

nah BDB was definitely an A. came right up from the GoM. luckily it occluded right over us

yeah, it hinges on the block, IMO. if that trends weaker, the positive shifts today completely reverse as it'll speed up the flow and lead to a less amped and warmer solution. if it trends stronger, the system slows and ticks S, putting a SNE-HV-NYC bomb on the table in terms of the second piece, I think we want to see that half-assed Plains ridging tick up in strength. if it does, there's a greater chance that the second piece dives in, phases, and bring the potential through the roof. the ECMWF seemed increase the strength of it at 12z also, the off-hour EPS runs are in range, which is huge. those are a real blessing