brooklynwx99

that system around the 23rd has been showing up on modeling for a while now, and it seems like the ensembles are beginning to parse the broad longwave features. with that said, there are actually a lot of pieces here, and they look like they can come together to produce some significant upside. at this point, it would be late December, and climo is much more favorable than it is now, even along the coast this is the highly anomalous ridge that is going to form as a result of the +EAMT that is going to take place over the next several days. notice how this ridge extends and cuts off into the Beaufort Sea. this is important because it both establishes a very cold antecedent airmass, and it displaces the TPV, which I'll get to in a bit this is the west-based -NAO blocking that forms as a result of this week's system. the Miller B that forms on Friday forces very warm air into the Davis Strait, which helps create a transient block that then decays over this region. this kind of decaying block over the Davis Strait is a precursor to some of our largest storms this is the TPV that has been displaced by the ridging I talked about earlier. this serves to deliver very cold air to the NE US ahead of the potential storm, and it also plays a very important role in establishing confluent flow over SE Canada... it could act as a kind of 50/50 ULL, which is also why the block is so important. both of them work in tandem to deliver HP to SE Canada and prevent a cutter finally, this is the shortwave that is beginning to get picked out by modeling. this is a very vigorous signal for this far out, but it makes sense given the entire hemisphere forcing it into existence given the +EAMT and extension of the Pacific jet. this would roll off of the ridge and downstream into the confluent flow forced by the TPV and transient blocking so, overall, there is a lot here to like. pretty much every piece is in place for a large-scale event around this time. now, there are obviously a lot of caveats at this range, as one would expect, and there is a possibility that something like the GFS OP plays out and it rains on everyone. I kind of have to favor inland regions, but that by no means rules anyone out when I see this kind of longwave configuration, it does get me a bit excited. all of the pieces are in place, so we'll see how it plays out over the next week or so

that system around the 23rd has been showing up on modeling for a while now, and it seems like the ensembles are beginning to parse the broad longwave features. with that said, there are actually a lot of pieces here, and they look like they can come together to produce some significant upside. at this point, it would be late December, and climo is much more favorable than it is now along the coast this is the highly anomalous ridge that is going to form as a result of the +EAMT that is going to take place over the next several days. notice how this ridge extends and cuts off into the Beaufort Sea. this is important because it both establishes a very cold antecedent airmass, and it displaces the TPV, which I'll get to in a bit this is the west-based -NAO blocking that forms as a result of this week's system. the Miller B that forms on Friday forces very warm air into the Davis Strait, which helps create a transient block that then decays over this region. this kind of decaying block over the Davis Strait is a precursor to some of our largest storms this is the TPV that has been displaced by the ridging I talked about earlier. this serves to deliver very cold air to the NE US ahead of the potential storm, and it also plays a very important role in establishing confluent flow over SE Canada... it could act as a kind of 50/50 ULL, which is also why the block is so important. both of them work in tandem to deliver HP to SE Canada and prevent a cutter finally, this is the shortwave that is beginning to get picked out by modeling. this is a very vigorous signal for this far out, but it makes sense given the entire hemisphere forcing it into existence given the +EAMT and extension of the Pacific jet. this would roll off of the ridge and downstream into the confluent flow forced by the TPV and transient blocking so, overall, there is a lot here to like. pretty much every piece is in place for a large-scale event around this time. now, there are obviously a lot of caveats at this range, as one would expect, and there is a possibility that something like the GFS OP plays out and it rains on everyone. I kind of have to favor inland regions, but that by no means rules anyone out when I see this kind of longwave configuration, it does get me a bit excited. all of the pieces are in place, so we'll see how it plays out over the next week or so

there is a strong +EAMT that's leading to the jet extension that's driving the Pacific pattern... this isn't a head fake or anything, the processes that drive this pattern in a week or so are starting in the next 1-2 days

if that pattern completely goes up in smoke in the next few I will literally never long range forecast ever again lmao there is no way there is an east Asian mountain torque driving the Pacific jet extension and -EPO... the models are handling this correctly

this look is in the medium range now... best Pacific pattern I've seen in a while. there will be a bunch of opportunities after this week's system

^ point proven

there are some patterns where you do have to worry about cutters, but this is absolutely not one of them. I'm not concerned that there are some random LR OP runs that show them when the ensembles look this good at day 8. there have been OP runs that have shown multiple coastals as well, like last evening's 18z GFS not even sure what some of the "pattern is getting pushed back" stuff is about. the PV is in SE Canada in the medium range and this is as good as the Pacific has looked since 2014-15

wish you stopped posting

let’s wait until Monday to get too excited, but this is an amazing look

holy shit. this is an unreal look. lots of split flow too

FWIW the GEPS is also going to show more coastals… farther S Plains ULL and lower heights over the NE US

GEFS has gone from a cutter to a coastal in one model cycle, as predicted given the block

keep in mind that the -NAO blocking is also decaying during the timeframe for the late-week storm, which is also a precursor to some of our largest events

oops!

oops!

GEFS continues the trend of more CAD, a weaker bowling ball S/W and lower downstream heights

this is a significant trend at 500mb. makes sense to have a shove S given the anomalous 50/50 and ridging in central Canada this is certainly worth keeping an eye on

GEFS ticks towards a stronger secondary LP again

what exactly am i missing? myself and a bunch of others have been persistent in saying that a favorable pattern would evolve after the 15th or so, got ridiculed for it by people worrying about absolutely nothing, and now everyone that was ridiculing is flipping back to the snow train on a whim. it's weird behavior

I'm favoring redevelopment for this system with a block that strong as well as a strong ULL out in the Atlantic like that... the models should continue to correct. there are already some strong members near the Delmarva that likely deliver from CT northward this deserves watching over the next few days

I'm favoring redevelopment for this system with a block that strong as well as a deep ULL out in the Atlantic like that... the models should continue to correct. there are already some strong members near the Delmarva that likely deliver from CT northward

here, though, we're likely going to see some better transient -NAO spells... those winters have insanely positive +NAOs, so we could see slower evolutions here

we're in for it after that "cutter" mid next week that'll probably just redevelop given the block in Canada and ULL to the east that -EPO ridge into W Canada that builds poleward is drool worthy. this is all moving forward in time, too. there are going to be some high end chances during the latter half of the month