brooklynwx99

all that really matters on the 12z ECMWF is that we saw a bunch of changes that increase the likelihood of a significant event: more favorable PNA ridging block is now cut off into the Davis Strait and is stronger more favorably placed 50/50 ULL this all leads to a much better outcome in terms of seeing a highly impactful storm. I think the blocking is forcing this, for the most part

speaking of exertion of more -NAO... look at the correction towards a much stronger -NAO over the last model cycle from the GEFS

I will take my chances 10/10 times with this look. the potential is sky high here

this is the type of potential next week holds. this is just an insanely dynamic solution you get that over the ocean and George wouldn't even be hyperbolic about his description of it

i don't know, the patterns are wholly different and the block should have a much easier time exerting itself now that there's a full-latitude ridge over the WC. the pattern for next week is much, much, more conducive for a favorable outcome over the NE US. it just has the look, so to speak the antecedent airmass is also way colder and climo is more favorable as well. I get what you're saying, but I think this setup holds so much more potential. i get the trepidation, and I don't mean to come off as argumentative... just spelling out what I'm seeing

there is a ton of spread here. a good bunch of those are true coastals, too. anything is on the table

yeah, this is a pretty incredible signal closed upper level high in the Beaufort Sea, +PNA, stout WB -NAO, a transient 50/50 feature, and a ridiculously vigorous shortwave for this lead time all of the pieces are there for a significant storm. where it goes is anyone's guess at this point but this is a very, very high end signal. could impact the coast or the Lakes, no way for anyone to really tell right now

what three Ninas in a row will do to some mfs

i really don’t mean to argue… but this is a cutter pattern. a -PNA/+NAO/+EPO and a WAR with the mean track through the Plains this is what we’re going to be seeing, for the most part. they are almost polar opposites i don’t get the pessimism. it’s December 12th and people are seeing ghosts. sure, we could get a cutter, but the upcoming pattern certainly favors coastal systems and cold SWFEs much more than most

why are people fretting over this? i really don’t get it? the TPV is elongated over SE Canada, there’s a ton of cold air displaced, and there’s a strong west based -NAO cutter pattern? absolutely not

the ECMWF basically has the shortwave sit in one spot for days and doesn’t move it at all. absolutely weird stuff i wouldn’t count on this happening. plays into the ECMWF’s overamplification bias as well. i think it broke this run LMAO

that system around the 23rd has been showing up on modeling for a while now, and it seems like the ensembles are beginning to parse the broad longwave features. with that said, there are actually a lot of pieces here, and they look like they can come together to produce some significant upside. at this point, it would be late December, and climo is much more favorable than it is now, even along the coast this is the highly anomalous ridge that is going to form as a result of the +EAMT that is going to take place over the next several days. notice how this ridge extends and cuts off into the Beaufort Sea. this is important because it both establishes a very cold antecedent airmass, and it displaces the TPV, which I'll get to in a bit this is the west-based -NAO blocking that forms as a result of this week's system. the Miller B that forms on Friday forces very warm air into the Davis Strait, which helps create a transient block that then decays over this region. this kind of decaying block over the Davis Strait is a precursor to some of our largest storms this is the TPV that has been displaced by the ridging I talked about earlier. this serves to deliver very cold air to the NE US ahead of the potential storm, and it also plays a very important role in establishing confluent flow over SE Canada... it could act as a kind of 50/50 ULL, which is also why the block is so important. both of them work in tandem to deliver HP to SE Canada and prevent a cutter finally, this is the shortwave that is beginning to get picked out by modeling. this is a very vigorous signal for this far out, but it makes sense given the entire hemisphere forcing it into existence given the +EAMT and extension of the Pacific jet. this would roll off of the ridge and downstream into the confluent flow forced by the TPV and transient blocking so, overall, there is a lot here to like. pretty much every piece is in place for a large-scale event around this time. now, there are obviously a lot of caveats at this range, as one would expect, and there is a possibility that something like the GFS OP plays out and it rains on everyone. I kind of have to favor inland regions, but that by no means rules anyone out when I see this kind of longwave configuration, it does get me a bit excited. all of the pieces are in place, so we'll see how it plays out over the next week or so

that system around the 23rd has been showing up on modeling for a while now, and it seems like the ensembles are beginning to parse the broad longwave features. with that said, there are actually a lot of pieces here, and they look like they can come together to produce some significant upside. at this point, it would be late December, and climo is much more favorable than it is now along the coast this is the highly anomalous ridge that is going to form as a result of the +EAMT that is going to take place over the next several days. notice how this ridge extends and cuts off into the Beaufort Sea. this is important because it both establishes a very cold antecedent airmass, and it displaces the TPV, which I'll get to in a bit this is the west-based -NAO blocking that forms as a result of this week's system. the Miller B that forms on Friday forces very warm air into the Davis Strait, which helps create a transient block that then decays over this region. this kind of decaying block over the Davis Strait is a precursor to some of our largest storms this is the TPV that has been displaced by the ridging I talked about earlier. this serves to deliver very cold air to the NE US ahead of the potential storm, and it also plays a very important role in establishing confluent flow over SE Canada... it could act as a kind of 50/50 ULL, which is also why the block is so important. both of them work in tandem to deliver HP to SE Canada and prevent a cutter finally, this is the shortwave that is beginning to get picked out by modeling. this is a very vigorous signal for this far out, but it makes sense given the entire hemisphere forcing it into existence given the +EAMT and extension of the Pacific jet. this would roll off of the ridge and downstream into the confluent flow forced by the TPV and transient blocking so, overall, there is a lot here to like. pretty much every piece is in place for a large-scale event around this time. now, there are obviously a lot of caveats at this range, as one would expect, and there is a possibility that something like the GFS OP plays out and it rains on everyone. I kind of have to favor inland regions, but that by no means rules anyone out when I see this kind of longwave configuration, it does get me a bit excited. all of the pieces are in place, so we'll see how it plays out over the next week or so

there is a strong +EAMT that's leading to the jet extension that's driving the Pacific pattern... this isn't a head fake or anything, the processes that drive this pattern in a week or so are starting in the next 1-2 days

if that pattern completely goes up in smoke in the next few I will literally never long range forecast ever again lmao there is no way there is an east Asian mountain torque driving the Pacific jet extension and -EPO... the models are handling this correctly

this look is in the medium range now... best Pacific pattern I've seen in a while. there will be a bunch of opportunities after this week's system

^ point proven

there are some patterns where you do have to worry about cutters, but this is absolutely not one of them. I'm not concerned that there are some random LR OP runs that show them when the ensembles look this good at day 8. there have been OP runs that have shown multiple coastals as well, like last evening's 18z GFS not even sure what some of the "pattern is getting pushed back" stuff is about. the PV is in SE Canada in the medium range and this is as good as the Pacific has looked since 2014-15

wish you stopped posting

let’s wait until Monday to get too excited, but this is an amazing look

holy shit. this is an unreal look. lots of split flow too

FWIW the GEPS is also going to show more coastals… farther S Plains ULL and lower heights over the NE US

GEFS has gone from a cutter to a coastal in one model cycle, as predicted given the block

keep in mind that the -NAO blocking is also decaying during the timeframe for the late-week storm, which is also a precursor to some of our largest events