brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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stronger 50/50 this run of the GEFS... definitely a move towards the EPS solution
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yeah, if there's no confluence this system has no shot. rather be worried about suppression than a lack of cold air
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GEFS actually has stronger confluence. looks great
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not even sure what it's trying to do here. just shreds the bowling ball to pieces in a desperate attempt for a phase. kinda grotesque
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either way, the ensembles are king at this range. just seeing a vigorous SLP and strong HP in SE Canada is half the battle. also, the GFS OP blows. it has been performing horribly this winter
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I actually think it looks a bit better. a TPV lobe sits over SE Canada and acts to lower heights over the NE, so the HP is stronger than 12z there also isn't any phasing with the northern stream. let's see where it goes. not going to be the ECMWF, but it's still workable
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actually pretty tame, i am surprised
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I think the most important thing is to see the 50/50 signal strengthen. if we have that, then this threat is legit. if not, it becomes a lot harder to pull off hopefully we have more clarity by the end of the weekend. I do like this event more than the late December one, though. the ridge axis is much more ideal for a coastal storm
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these types of setups have produced for us historically
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hehe not saying anything similar is going to happen... just noting that setups like this can produce very large storms from NYC southward
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not really sure if there's much of a better longwave setup. strong S/W crossing the US into confluence
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this is generally what you want to see for large storms from DCA-BOS... a potent S/W crossing the US into confluence
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i mean... this is pretty classic stuff here, no exaggeration. let's see if we can start to nail that 50/50 down on the ensembles
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that's still a good thing because it sets up the confluence for this monster
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ECMWF looks very interesting with an ULL over the NE US and a very potent S/W. pretty classic look here
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some absolute monsters in here too, including a 2016 redux. lmao
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yup, I feel like if the 14th is going to fail, it would be suppressed. I would much rather have to need an amped system to trend NW than a cutter trend SE the former happens a good bit. the latter... not so much
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GEFS looks great. no need to panic lmao
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lmao this looks lovely
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there's no use. the panic has ensued
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i suppose this is a SE ridge now, too?
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downstream height rises ahead of an amplifying S/W don't constitute a SE ridge
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i mean, even if the EPS and GEFS had a bunch of 970s with perfect tracks, you’d still have people saying “oh this isn’t good, it’s day 8-10 and it’s going to change”
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it’s quite good, actually. i just want to see an amplified shortwave at this range
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I'd agree that it's noise. still keeps the focus on the late-week wave and this is still a formidable signal. all that matters right now
