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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    I don't know of anyone that is actually thinking that besides 15 year olds on twitter I would be quite surprised if we didn't see a legit -NAO spell at some point in early-mid March, though
  2. brooklynwx99
    i would say so. we pray for this, as we’d definitely get some events with this kind of pattern. it’s relentless verbatim SSWEs are unpredictable and blocking is obviously no guarantee, but I would favor it over keeping the status quo with an event of this magnitude
  3. brooklynwx99
    weeklies are kind of ridiculous… locked and loaded throughout the run. every member has a SSW that occurs by the 16th as some have already mentioned, I am skeptical about the effects of the SSW, as models are notoriously horrible with tropospheric effects. however, given the strength of the SSW, I would be more inclined to see a switch to a blocky pattern like this rather than keeping with the status quo
  4. brooklynwx99
    gets better, actually. locked and loaded throughout the run. every member has a SSW that occurs by the 16th as some have already mentioned, I am skeptical about the effects of the SSW, as models are notoriously horrible with tropospheric effects. however, given the strength of the SSW, I would be more inclined to see a switch to a blocky pattern like this rather than keeping with the status quo
  5. brooklynwx99
    la nina
  6. brooklynwx99
    I hope that nobody thinks that anyone that's talking about the SSW is guaranteeing anything... it's just something that can legitimately lead to blocking late in the year and actually shake the pattern up. it's not voodoo either... this is very likely to occur
  7. brooklynwx99
    idk. blocking is showing up during the first week of the month on modeling, and you can get snow for almost the entire month if enough cold air is displaced. I'll take my chances, and if it doesn't happen, it'll torch and that'll be nice too like this storm happened with 10 days left on the month... was a significant one
  8. brooklynwx99
    that's the wild card. I wouldn't get super excited or anything, but the extended modeling is favoring blocking over none at all. I'll take it
  9. brooklynwx99
    SPV from 10-50mb gets torn to shreds. would not surprise me at all if we got blocky in March
  10. brooklynwx99
    hey, what else can we do? nothing in the pipeline for like 10-15 days after this
  11. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the Canadian ENS made a pretty significant shift towards the EPS. much stronger ULL and it's a good bit colder than the GEFS
  12. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the Canadian ENS made a significant improvement compared to 12z. way stronger with the ULL compared to 00z and colder than the GEFS
  13. brooklynwx99
    it is very difficult to get a snowstorm when the system is completely cut off from the northern stream with a bad antecedent airmass, no matter the time of year. this would be a major storm if there was any kind of cold air in place
  14. brooklynwx99
    I wouldn't say that. it's definitely all or nothing, but there is a threat here
  15. brooklynwx99
    considering the odds of 1"+ have steadily increased since 00z today and the 500mb track looks good, I would say it's a legit trend for Sunday
  16. brooklynwx99
    very nice EPS run. great 500mb track
  17. brooklynwx99
    here is the meteogram for BWI from the EPS… multiple significant snowfalls on there
  18. brooklynwx99
    all told, that was a great EPS run. exactly what i wanted to see
  19. brooklynwx99
    there’s a pretty notable NW lean here. much, much improved from 06z
  20. brooklynwx99
    hmm. this looks quite nice
  21. brooklynwx99
    EPS is much improved from 06z at 500mb
  22. brooklynwx99
    honestly, I'm not too bummed about that given the synoptic improvements from 00z. the EPS will be interesting in half an hour or so if they make the same changes. there were already some pretty nice members at 06z
  23. brooklynwx99
    not going to lie, this looks very good. definitely more amped than the GFS
  24. brooklynwx99
    the ECMWF is even the strongest of the 3 major models with the S/W. the CMC is the weakest... I would imagine that the strength even at 60 makes a big difference. doubt it's as flat as the CMC at this range tho
  25. brooklynwx99
    trust me, everyone should understand that this is a low-probability event due to a lack of blocking and no arctic air and blah blah blah. but it's nice to have something to track regardless... this certainly bears some watching
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