brooklynwx99

yes, for sure

the -NAO correlation from Nov-Jan with the cold stratosphere is even more interesting when you consider the propensity for early blocking in the analogs, as you're saying. this is a legit west-based -NAO signal and when looking at these years' SH strat temperature anomalies from August to September, there is a definite signal for an anomalously cold stratosphere. it's obviously not to the extreme extent as we're seeing this year, but it's certainly similar so, I see no reason to believe that December won't bring some decent winter chances before -ENSO climo takes over as we head into mid January - February

so it turns out that the anomalously cool stratospheric temperatures over the SH actually correlate to a west based -NAO kinda makes sense, I would think that there would be some kind of balancing out with the historically cold SH stratosphere obviously, this is a correlation and these years had other factors influencing the NAO... but this is interesting and it seems that, on average, a very cold SH strat would help a -NAO if anything, not hurt it

for sure. my initial thought is that the flavor of this winter will be similar to last, but we should shift the cold / snowy period up a few weeks. like mid December to early Jan also... the PDO looks much improved thus far. it can change for sure, but this is a good look initially with all the warm water off the WC if this remains heading into November, it bolsters the case for a wintry Dec

2000-01 is a legit analog this year

for the amount I help contribute to LR stuff during the winter (very often times optimistically), I don't exactly feel like this level of snark is warranted over valid meteorological analysis I apologize if my post came off the wrong way, didn't mean to come off as a downer or anything. many should get good winds with the outflow anyway. IAD gusted to 52

lmao trust me, coming from the NYC area, we don't even dream of storms up here you guys have gotten some beefy guys this year though

this looks like a scenario where most in MD north of DC get the bulk of their gusts with the outflow. that line has become outflow dominant very quickly, so I don't see it lasting too long the boundary could fire some new pop-ups tho

I think December has the potential to be pretty banging, honestly. reminiscent of last Jan and I also love seeing the ample amount of subsurface warmth near the dateline for next winter

December was a real shame... that was a massive, perfectly placed cutoff UL high over Greenland and the Davis Strait. classic west-based -NAO. if we just had a "normal" -PNA, it's likely a big dog month thanks to redevelopers and SWFEs, especially up by you guys even when LR forecasting, it had the look of a big month, but the record breaking Aleutian ridge did it in

it's funny, although the climate is undoubtedly warming, there will be areas that see record breaking cold / snow in the CONUS regardless. look at Seattle last winter with that record breaking Aleutian ridge: crazy thing is, there's nothing to say that we can't get that kind of behemoth ridge over the W US into AK or over Greenland instead... just need different forcing that will be present when the base state flips 2023-24 or shortly thereafter. there's going to be a pretty sick winter once the band snaps in the other direction. @40/70 Benchmark shares the same general sentiment

The super Nino in 2015-16 completely ruined the NA pattern. It's a total flip from 2009-2015 to 2017-2022. Can't wait for the Nino base state to return, hopefully in 2023-24.

you guys just need a moderate to strong central-based +ENSO to really cash in. there's actually a big correlation between that ENSO state and well above average snows for you guys due to the combination of a strong STJ and N Atlantic blocking andddd that ENSO state looks quite likely during 2023-24, if not 2024-25. just gotta be patient, it's coming

yeah that sounds about right

yeah, exactly. I see no indication of a 2011-12 winter or 2019-20 winter walking through the door seems kinda similar to last winter with very cold air in Canada, perhaps more front-loaded. we will all see some chances, there are just less the farther S you get

btw, my analog post wasn't to say we have a completely snowless winter on the way there could be a good wintry period from mid Dec - early Jan if I had to take a guess. something similar to last winter where there were definite, relatively short windows that you had to cash in on instead of a totally conducive / inconducive winter pattern for months at a time

yes, exactly... @40/70 Benchmark and I are both quite bullish on 2023-24 due to the probable Modoki +ENSO event that follows these environments if so, could be a legit blockbuster for a good portion of the MA. time will tell! just gotta be patient

I have a very difficult time being optimistic for the MA this winter there could be a fast start this December, but late Jan - Feb look to be pretty torchy. you guys (as well as NYC/PHL for that matter) would have to capitalize during a few weeks some primary analogs based on ENSO, QBO and IOD are 1985-86, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2001-02, 2008-09, and 2012-13

I was in East Brunswick on Saturday and my car read 102 just after driving in a residential area. felt like it too I think EWR is actually a pretty good representation of the UHI and other densely populated areas in NE NJ as well as SI, Brooklyn, and Queens away from the immediate coast

yeah, totally. very preliminary as of now, pretty much only based on ENSO and not much else 2012-13 was back-loaded and 2000-01 front-loaded, so we should get one wintry month this year. when all is said and done, it should end up near average looks like Dec/Mar have the most potential by a wide margin as of now with Jan/Feb being the weaker two months

personally, I'm going with 2012-13, 2000-01, 1956-57, and 1985-86 as analogs based on ENSO December has the highest chance to be wintry, but this winter looks below average for the MA and near to slightly below average for the NYC metro, as those winters averaged 10" for DC and 24" for NYC

i was thinking of including 2009-10, but the only issue with that in my mind was that there were only two -ENSO years with an immediate flip to a moderate +ENSO... looks like we're getting a gradual transition to a cold neutral instead since there was a strong -ENSO event in 07-08 it wouldn't be the worst analog, but it's out of my set for now. definitely not out of the question, though the next +ENSO event we'll get should be Modoki, and given past winters, it should be a really good one for almost all on the EC. exciting stuff

here are the composites of these five winters and their Februaries: I think these pretty much speak for themselves

hey guys, I would have to agree that either the 2023/24 or 2024/25 winter will end up a big one down here, as well as much of the EC three consecutive -ENSO events are quite rare. however, a weak/moderate +ENSO returns either one or two years afterwards, and this winter is usually anomalously snowy some examples include: 2014/15, 2002/03, 1986/87, 1977/78, and 1957/58 here is a composite of these winters and their Februaries: the average snowfall of these winters in Baltimore is 39.9" (!!!) so, yeah, it's coming. just have to be patient!

just wait until we exit the triple -ENSO... I agree with @40/70 Benchmark that either the 2023-24 or 2024-25 winter will be a big one as +ENSO returns a few winters that were either one or two years after three consecutive -ENSO years (which usually saw at least one moderate/strong -ENSO early on) are: 2014/15, 2002/03, 1977/78, and 1957/58! 1986/87 is also in there. this was a big MA winter, and I would take that pattern again 57/58 wasn't prolific for Boston, but I would again take my chances with this pattern near you guys 100% of the time. it was definitely more of a NYC/MA winter verbatim not a big sample size given the lack of triple -ENSOs, but it's a pretty good sign that we could see a big boy soon. just gotta be a bit patient for this winter, I'm probably leaning near or slightly below average snowfall. nothing looks particularly promising w/ -ENSO conditions lingering