brooklynwx99

yeah, this is definitely our best shot. the C Canada ridging actually leads to some nice HP over the top as well due to the initial confluence. not that convinced that the airmass will be bad if there's a nice LP off the coast there are some 1030-40 HPs in really nice spots in SE Canada

still a strong signal for the potential around the 15th. this has been showing up for days now and it coincides with a strong W US ridge spike

grown ass man lmao

it's a pretty potent coastal signal at this range. nothing else is on the horizon, so I think this is worth keeping an eye on

yeah, this is impressive for this lead time. it's pretty much all we got right now, so we'll see what happens

yeah, it's pretty bleak outside of the signal around the 14th or so. that one seems kinda legit given the PNA spike associated with it, and it's been consistent on ensembles sucks, but what can you do

what 3 years of La Nina will do to a mf

great split flow look here too. would certainly be active

yeah the EPS is really nice. this looks like a canonical late season Nino with the lowest heights over the SE this lowers compression and would allow for larger coastals to develop

yeah, it’s not super strong, but I would say so. that flow is coming across the pole… follow the height lines - they’re coming from the Arctic

EPS is now like the GEFS in the LR now. this is a really nice look

EPS look really good once the jet retracts

ground would be made up quickly if this comes to fruition. this is basically a nino look with the split flow and below average heights in the SE US

ground would be made up quickly if this comes to fruition. this is basically a nino look with the split flow and below average heights in the SE US

bold way to burn one of your five daily posts

we take (even down by me)

pretty consistent trend from the GFS with the 250mb jet too. this will do

i know! it’s thread the needle, but honestly the majority of events are from NYC south. just something that deserves an eye kept on it

this is a bizarre setup, but it might actually work. here, you have amplification of Rockies ridging due to another system strengthening offshore. then, lots of confluence is forced by the TPV swinging over SE Canada, which leads to a cold banana high weird setup, believe me, but there are actually pieces here

this is a bizarre setup, but it might actually work. here, you have amplification of Rockies ridging due to another system strengthening offshore. then, lots of confluence is forced by the TPV swinging over SE Canada, which leads to a cold banana high weird setup, believe me, but there are actually pieces here

this is a bizarre setup, but it might actually work. here, you have amplification of Rockies ridging due to another system strengthening offshore. then, lots of confluence is forced by the TPV swinging over SE Canada, which leads to a cold banana high weird setup, believe me, but there are actually pieces here

@40/70 Benchmark also, for those moderate to strong -ENSO events I made the composite for, here is the mean Pacific jet... it's very retracted and leads to the strong Aleutian ridge compare this to moderate to strong +ENSO events and to what we're going to be seeing: so, yeah. this isn't forced by ENSO, it was forced by an anomalous extratropical mechanism that's going to reverse. not really worried about this stretch right now. we're basically getting super Nino'd to death and it isn't going to last IMO

we're going to see a -EAMT over the next week or so, which would help with a Pacific jet retraction for sure. a strong +EAMT part of what forced the insane -EPO event last week also, it just doesn't really make sense to me. usually, a shit pattern in a -ENSO state is usually from a flat Aleutian ridge that leads to a strong -PNA. even if the ridge is poleward, you're prone to cutters without blocking. this is the type of thing I'm talking about, which I'm sure you're familiar with so, overall, these type of insane jet extensions are usually due to a very strong +ENSO event, which we are certainly not in. I'm not worried about this sticking around for a particularly long time. the forcing mechanism for it is weaning

this is why I don't think this type of bad pattern is sustainable... we're basically getting super Nino'd in a moderate -ENSO. that jet is going to retract and we're going to get a nice +PNA/-EPO when it does

assigning unreasonable expectations to any pattern is a recipe for failure. there are no guarantees with any pattern granted, it still was very disappointing, but counting your chickens before they hatch never works with the weather. too chaotic