brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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the ECMWF has made a definite shift towards the GFS in its handling of the AK vort much more amplified -
thanks for understanding. i’ll refrain from now on - unless it’s egregious hahaha I really don’t know what to think here. I still think everything is on the table. the foreign models do give me pause but the GFS suite is holding strong and other models are ticking. the GEFS is insane this is going to be a biggggg weekend
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the GEFS mean snowfall is another improvement from 18z
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sorry… did not mean to come off as judgemental. just want everyone to keep a level head as much as possible this is going to be a doozy to track and if one invests too much emotionally, it’s going to be a bad time. trust me, I have prepared for the GFS to have egg on its face and for everyone to rain… I would probably rage a bit too
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GEFS has less of a W lean, it appears
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the angst over a 70 mile difference between rain and snow at day 7 is quite silly, too I feel like people just have to take a couple days and let this play out. we'll know what's up by Monday, most likely
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hilarious when comparing to the 18z EPS. like what the fuck it's a wholesale synoptic feature that just isn't there on the EPS at 5 days out! crazy one of these models is going to be really, really, really wrong
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I'm just happy that the GFS is digging in its heels. something has to give, and it doesn't seem to be the GFS right now we can work with the GFS for sure at 7 days out. brings significant wintry precip and it still has a lot of issues
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after the hellacious front end thump? that's like 8" in 6 hours for most
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GFS looks amazing weaker initial S/W and the TPV is much stronger, which will provide more confluence
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looks like the GFS might actually have the right idea here. not budging from its idea at 18z at all if anything, the TPV lobe is a touch stronger
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looks like the GFS has fused the two S/Ws. really interesting. no idea where this will go, but I can assure that it won't be like the ECMWF in its evolution
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18z GEFS improved snowfall for most
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we will absolutely take at 7 days out
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yeah, the GFS was more amplified because of the S/W. the synoptic evolution is absolutely nothing like the ECMWF this run was just typical Day 7 noise, not a step towards the ECMWF
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the more important thing here is that the GFS held serve synoptically and the ICON made a big shift towards it if the ECMWF makes the same synoptic changes, it bodes much better for a coastal storm. keep in mind that this is still 7 days out
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I'll take this at 7 days out. the good thing is that the evolution is absolutely nothing like the ECMWF there's going to be a lot of noise at this range, which is expected anyway
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we're seeing better confluence downstream. might be more amped, but this is also nice to see. heights are much more zonal into New England I'm happy with this run overall
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S/W also coming in more meridionally, allowing it to dig more and have a chance at passing S. TPV also nudging into NE more than the last run... look at the more zonal orientation of the wind barbs in PA, for example this run will produce another monster storm
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prepare for takeoff
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once you get to days 4-5, the differences are glaring
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not even close. if the ECMWF ticks towards the GFS it's game on. the GFS should produce again this run
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just comical. not even close GFS should be big again
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GFS is not even on the same planet as the ECMWF with the handling of the TPV. not even close look at the separation in BC. two distinct pieces
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GFS is not even on the same planet as the ECMWF with the handling of the TPV. not even close look at the separation in BC. two distinct pieces
