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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    GFS is colder at 06z. big increase in the strength of the confluence. what a trend over the last full model cycle
  2. brooklynwx99
    the PNA isn’t totally what dictates how far N/S this goes… the confluence is just as responsible for that, IMO however, if that ridge in the SW keeps amping as the block kinda shoves the S/W over the WC back a bit, this will also allow for the storm to dig a bit more S and amplify. would be a net positive
  3. brooklynwx99
    it would be difficult to suppress this storm that far S without an established west-based block. those usually have stronger confluence centered over ME with an east-based block, the confluence is a bit more tenuous and storms can gain latitude easier. my cutoff was a bit arbitrary, but i find it hard to see this getting suppressed. it’s far more likely that this trends back N rather than that
  4. brooklynwx99
    the farthest south significant snow can get IMO is like Middlesex County, NJ. you guys in SNE are in a great spot
  5. brooklynwx99
    Christ
  6. brooklynwx99
    pretty clear trend here since 18z yesterday. weaker primary and a much quicker transfer. also note the increasing pressure N of ME
  7. brooklynwx99
    even better. holy crap. a touch more confluence and a stronger, farther S shortwave
  8. brooklynwx99
    nah BDB was definitely an A. came right up from the GoM. luckily it occluded right over us
  9. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it hinges on the block, IMO. if that trends weaker, the positive shifts today completely reverse as it'll speed up the flow and lead to a less amped and warmer solution. if it trends stronger, the system slows and ticks S, putting a SNE-HV-NYC bomb on the table in terms of the second piece, I think we want to see that half-assed Plains ridging tick up in strength. if it does, there's a greater chance that the second piece dives in, phases, and bring the potential through the roof. the ECMWF seemed increase the strength of it at 12z also, the off-hour EPS runs are in range, which is huge. those are a real blessing
  10. brooklynwx99
    the GEFS is much more favorable... pretty big shift to the EPS with a lot more confluence. increases the snow mean by a ton as a result this is easily the best threat the NYC metro has had all winter. beats late December by a mile
  11. brooklynwx99
    this is easily the best threat for CNE/SNE towards NYC that we've had all winter. not close hopefully we can hold until it's within 4-5 days
  12. brooklynwx99
    holy shit GEFS
  13. brooklynwx99
    FWIW i do think this is thread worthy. but why does it have to be prefaced like that
  14. brooklynwx99
    GEFS has much more confluence than 12z and a more amped S/W. the GEFS usually follows the GFS at this range, but i’ll take it. it’s a good shift
  15. brooklynwx99
    dude.
  16. brooklynwx99
    futility
  17. brooklynwx99
    one more shift like this and NYC-BOS is hammered. the block is slowing down and amplifying the flow
  18. brooklynwx99
    everyone is going to win here. wow wow wow.
  19. brooklynwx99
    this is a definitive shift towards the ECMWF. stronger block forcing more confluence. S/W is more amped as well. all things we want to see
  20. brooklynwx99
    not to get off topic, but I actually rank 2016 as a good to great winter. can't be a bad winter when you have a record-breaking blizzard IMO. just doesn't make sense to me but also, we don't really have snowpack or anything like that in NYC, so it's more of a bonus than anything... the lack of other snow doesn't bother me there
  21. brooklynwx99
    because it's the least skillful and it has a noticeable progressive bias with coastals I don't think anyone is discounting it, it's just that the EPS is holding strong, we're getting to 5 days, and other models are moving towards it. the GFS can be put on the backburner in those situations
  22. brooklynwx99
    EPS made some good changes here slightly stronger 50/50, which leads to the block nudging further W slightly higher heights over the SW US - increases amplitude of the incoming S/W then there's also a stronger and more E lobe of vorticity N of MT that increases phasing potential the blossoming of riding in SE Canada north of the S/W is also indicative of a blocking regime... it can't gain latitude like that and is then forced to redevelop offshore. this is getting close to looking really damn good. give it a few more days this kind of setup favors New England, but potent Miller B setups can still deliver significant snow to the NYC metro. there are a bunch of <990mb members
  23. brooklynwx99
    this type of setup can impact NYC to Boston. I would feel worse if I was in Philly, but many Miller Bs do heavily impact that axis. would be a bit silly to count the NYC metro out at this range I feel like this is the straw that breaks the back of persistence
  24. brooklynwx99
    this is the feature that I'm referring to, btw, if it was unclear. this essentially prevents the S/W from gaining latitude and forces it to go offshore. this feature was more downstream of the S/W yesterday, causing it to gain latitude rather than where it is now
  25. brooklynwx99
    and look at those redevelopers as a result. sheesh. this is easily the best look that we've had at this range all year
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