brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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this is a definitive shift towards the ECMWF. stronger block forcing more confluence. S/W is more amped as well. all things we want to see
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not to get off topic, but I actually rank 2016 as a good to great winter. can't be a bad winter when you have a record-breaking blizzard IMO. just doesn't make sense to me but also, we don't really have snowpack or anything like that in NYC, so it's more of a bonus than anything... the lack of other snow doesn't bother me there
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because it's the least skillful and it has a noticeable progressive bias with coastals I don't think anyone is discounting it, it's just that the EPS is holding strong, we're getting to 5 days, and other models are moving towards it. the GFS can be put on the backburner in those situations
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EPS made some good changes here slightly stronger 50/50, which leads to the block nudging further W slightly higher heights over the SW US - increases amplitude of the incoming S/W then there's also a stronger and more E lobe of vorticity N of MT that increases phasing potential the blossoming of riding in SE Canada north of the S/W is also indicative of a blocking regime... it can't gain latitude like that and is then forced to redevelop offshore. this is getting close to looking really damn good. give it a few more days this kind of setup favors New England, but potent Miller B setups can still deliver significant snow to the NYC metro. there are a bunch of <990mb members
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this type of setup can impact NYC to Boston. I would feel worse if I was in Philly, but many Miller Bs do heavily impact that axis. would be a bit silly to count the NYC metro out at this range I feel like this is the straw that breaks the back of persistence
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this is the feature that I'm referring to, btw, if it was unclear. this essentially prevents the S/W from gaining latitude and forces it to go offshore. this feature was more downstream of the S/W yesterday, causing it to gain latitude rather than where it is now
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and look at those redevelopers as a result. sheesh. this is easily the best look that we've had at this range all year
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yup, EPS made some good changes here slightly stronger 50/50, which leads to the block nudging further W slightly higher heights over the SW US - increases amplitude of the incoming S/W then there's also a stronger and more E lobe of vorticity N of MT that increases phasing potential the blossoming of riding in SE Canada north of the S/W is also indicative of a blocking regime... it can't gain latitude like that and is then forced to redevelop offshore. this is getting close to looking really damn good. give it a few more days
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I agree. this has to do with the development of the -NAO and the semi-permanent confluence that it's forcing as a result. the synoptic evolution makes sense I'm excited for the EPS
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that's ok. I'll roll the dice with that setup. that 50/50 and -NAO is essential for a larger storm, so it's good to see that
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not even over yet. I mean holy shit, this synoptic setup is pretty great a true -NAO with a massive 50/50 suppressing heights over the NE US. might cut verbatim, but that's what you want to see for a larger coastal
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i do like this. huge 50/50 and -NAO dipole with a S/W coming out of the SW US. might not work verbatim, but there are some big pieces here
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nice was an understatement. that is a full blown blizzard verbatim
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the confluence forcing the S/W south makes sense here as the -NAO strengthens. I don't think this is the ECMWF doing anything odd, and the GFS should correct if the block is real. this is a typical response to blocking, and it's why the NE US usually does well with these patterns
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looks like it's similar to 00z. nice storm for everyone
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look how the stronger block and increased confluence separate the S/W of interest from the main trough and force it S... this is what we want to continue to see if we want a favorable outcome with this system
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NYC metro peeps could say the same about Feb 5 2010. give us that setup and we're getting 12-18", but we got cirrus either way, what a 12z GFS run. even the CMC was nice. let's see if we can keep that block and 50/50 on the ensembles for a bit. if, so it could be legit
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you're telling me... christ
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and yes, the end of this month and March should be worlds better than January. January had zero cold air... you have no shot there at least now, if a storm takes a favorable track, it's going to snow. we have a good source region. cold air is much more important. can't snow without it
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getting an initial wave to drag a baroclinic zone south for another wave that actually produces snow isn't that rare. that's kind of what 50/50s do before larger storms sometimes
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the EPS still likes early next week for a storm, as there's a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Plains and a strong 50/50 in place. if there is enough confluence, then there can be a front-end thump or even a coastal solution like that the OP showed... certainly possible with a 50/50 like that. worth keeping an eye on obviously, we want to see the GFS / CMC get on board, but that will be a matter of which model is correctly handling the -NAO development. no real way to know right now
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the thing is that near normal is fine for the first week of March. and then the cold air would get forced underneath the block into the E US, assuming it’s strong and west-based. that’s what we don’t know yet
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hell yeah. hopefully it’s not a blip this is run to run change btw, not raw anomalies
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nice trend over the last few runs over the E US as the block ticks stronger
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yes, exactly. that is the type of response I’d expect. let’s hope that block gets as far W as possible
