brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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the confluence forcing the S/W south makes sense here as the -NAO strengthens. I don't think this is the ECMWF doing anything odd, and the GFS should correct if the block is real. this is a typical response to blocking, and it's why the NE US usually does well with these patterns
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looks like it's similar to 00z. nice storm for everyone
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look how the stronger block and increased confluence separate the S/W of interest from the main trough and force it S... this is what we want to continue to see if we want a favorable outcome with this system
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NYC metro peeps could say the same about Feb 5 2010. give us that setup and we're getting 12-18", but we got cirrus either way, what a 12z GFS run. even the CMC was nice. let's see if we can keep that block and 50/50 on the ensembles for a bit. if, so it could be legit
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you're telling me... christ
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and yes, the end of this month and March should be worlds better than January. January had zero cold air... you have no shot there at least now, if a storm takes a favorable track, it's going to snow. we have a good source region. cold air is much more important. can't snow without it
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getting an initial wave to drag a baroclinic zone south for another wave that actually produces snow isn't that rare. that's kind of what 50/50s do before larger storms sometimes
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the EPS still likes early next week for a storm, as there's a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Plains and a strong 50/50 in place. if there is enough confluence, then there can be a front-end thump or even a coastal solution like that the OP showed... certainly possible with a 50/50 like that. worth keeping an eye on obviously, we want to see the GFS / CMC get on board, but that will be a matter of which model is correctly handling the -NAO development. no real way to know right now
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the thing is that near normal is fine for the first week of March. and then the cold air would get forced underneath the block into the E US, assuming it’s strong and west-based. that’s what we don’t know yet
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hell yeah. hopefully it’s not a blip this is run to run change btw, not raw anomalies
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nice trend over the last few runs over the E US as the block ticks stronger
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yes, exactly. that is the type of response I’d expect. let’s hope that block gets as far W as possible
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this is intriguing
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you guys always might be onto something and then you go right off the deep end. why?
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i mean, you have a blocked up Atlantic that forces confluence, a -EPO to get fresh Arctic air, and a strong west-based -NAO. that type of pattern has a high ceiling for the entire NE US the change is that the trough is centered over the Plains, not the WC. that makes a huge difference
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we pray. this would be amazing
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this is what we want. this would have very high potential verbatim with the 50/50 dipole and west-based block
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there remains a pretty strong signal for a wintry system early next week with the shortwave ejecting out of the Midwest. just depends on the amount of confluence in place beforehand
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it's just that they aren't awful at all. they're actually very active with two storm possibilities so far NYC will just have to wait longer and have less wiggle room. personally I think the 3/5-3/20 window has the most promise for the entire NE US but everyone is exhausted so there's no need to really elaborate on that
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jesus dude they aren't even over yet
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hey, some people are interested in the weather. I've taken most of the negative emotions out of the whole thing. only positivity
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not gonna lie, there are indications that the AK ridging and a PNA moving towards neutral along with the decaying block that makes that 7-15th window interesting but I know everyone is exhausted lmao so no need to elaborate as of now
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yup, the largest events for NYC almost unanimously feature a -PNA or at least a deep trough on the WC or just offshore
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eh, I've never liked this morning's snow. BL temps are so trash
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kind of incredible how bad our luck is this winter. 80-90% of the time that's a blockbuster HL pattern but the Nina is just forcing everything into the Pacific NW. I suppose patterns like what we saw in 2010-11 and March 2018 are a rare breed not going to sleep on it, though. strong west-based -NAOs can do weird shit and I would still be surprised if there wasn't a larger storm somewhere in the March 5-20 timeframe
