brooklynwx99

trust me, I don't believe anything like that will happen, it's far too early to say anything like that. however, it would be foolish to look at that and not acknowledge the potential there... it's certainly high end. could it go up in flames? sure, any pattern can. but the one advertised has a much lower chance of failing and a much higher chance of producing a large wintry storm

generally, yes, but this depends on where the 50/50 sets up. NNE/CNE is by no means out of the game

it's the largest ensemble that's run on the consistently best performing model lmao

not sure if you can even draw it up better at this range. this is ridiculous

i get all the skepticism and pessimism, but how can this not get you excited? this is a perfect synoptic progression on the EPS. crazy

EPS looks amazing. what's the issue here? it even made positive changes compared to 00z

aleet aleet on the ECMWF

GFS and CMC ENS are maintaining the same high-end pattern progression around the 10th of March as the S/W over the WC ejects and the -NAO decays over N central Canada. there's even signs of ridging into the SW US I expect the EPS to hold, but we'll see in an hour or so

yeah, the 06z GEFS illustrates this well

it gets flattened on the ENS as the S/W in the west gets booted into the Plains. it will pop at first, though

there was a significant snowstorm over NNJ, S NY, and CT today, so the blocking has produced for the NE US. sorry you guys got unlucky, can't nail down specific regions that are impacted 10 days out. sucks, but it is what it is when it comes to LR forecasting be as pessimistic as you want for whatever reason you see fit, but don't shit on people that are posting in good faith because you're annoyed about the weather. that's petty also, that post was saying talking about how the -NAO would occur, which it has in earnest. it was a good forecast in that regard... the two patterns are very similar aside from typical near-term magnifications the post doesn't even mention any snowfall impacts. at least quote the whole post if you're going to bump troll, dude

it’s also worth noting that the GEFS made a big step towards the EPS/GEPS with regards to the strength of the blocking and the orientation of the 50/50 ULL this is very encouraging, as it was a bit of a holdout yesterday at 12z. much more ENS agreement now

also, the AK blocking is forced by the strong MJO pulse into Phases 7/8 and the -NAO is forced by the SSWE. there is much more confidence in the HL blocking occurring due to the anomalous pattern drivers… this is not a head fake

I mean, the retrogression of the -NAO to the Davis Strait occurs in a week, so that’s likely just going to happen at this point… the block in increasing in strength as well. also I don’t really see that much of a similarity to Dec, as the -PNA gets shunted due to much more favorable tropical forcing. much more of a true 50/50 dipole too overall, the combination of the decaying, west-based -NAO, highly anomalous -EPO/-WPO, and deep, stalled 50/50 ULL makes this a better pattern than what we saw in December you can even see the S/W eject from the W/C and get forced under the block on a 52 member mean at 10 days out! it’s an amazing signal. the GEFS and GEPS are also enthused… the GEFS made a big step to the EPS at 00z

this is some absolutely ridiculous shit. as loaded is it gets, no exaggeration. that is telegraphing a KU verbatim

holy shit

I think it’s becoming clear that even though the primary SLP likely tracks well inland, the confluence in place may still lead to wintry impacts, as shown on the GFS and CMC I would also not be surprised if it continued to tick stronger given the blocking in place, similar to what happened with the ongoing system

the EPS (and GEPS to a lesser extent) is basically a perfect pattern progression. every synoptic feature is here for a major storm somewhere on the EC around the 10th: highly anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait anomalous -EPO/-WPO to deliver Arctic air into the E US highly anomalous, semi-permanent 50/50 ULL signal for a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Rockies as the PNA trends neutral... likely ending up slightly positive due to the Pacific Rex block I want to see increased ENS support for this progression, mainly from the GEFS, but this is about as high-end of a pattern progression as you can get. compare this to the 7-day preloading composite for NYC's 18"+ storms... there are any of the same pattern features, namely the decaying west-based block and deep 50/50 ULL. this composite applies for you guys, as well. the same pattern is needed for NYC south to see its biggest storms I don't mean to honk this early, but this is the best looking pattern progression since Feb 2021, which was the last classic MA blizzard (unfortunately scraped you guys to the N). many of the same features show up there, as well. it's not a coincidence

the EPS (and GEPS to a lesser extent) is basically a perfect pattern progression. every synoptic feature is here for a major storm somewhere on the EC around the 10th: highly anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait anomalous -EPO/-WPO to deliver Arctic air into the E US highly anomalous, semi-permanent 50/50 ULL signal for a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Rockies as the PNA trends neutral... likely ending up slightly positive due to the Pacific Rex block I want to see increased ENS support for this progression, mainly from the GEFS, but this is about as high-end of a pattern progression as you can get. compare this to the 7-day preloading composite for NYC's 18"+ storms... there are any of the same pattern features, namely the decaying west-based block and deep 50/50 ULL. SNE also gets large storms with this kind of composite, but it is admittedly harder N of BOS I don't mean to honk this early, but this is the best looking pattern progression since Feb 2021, which was the last blizzard spawning from this type of pattern. many of the same features show up there, as well. it's not a coincidence

the EPS (and GEPS to a lesser extent) is basically a perfect pattern progression. every synoptic feature is here for a major storm somewhere on the EC around the 10th: highly anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait anomalous -EPO/-WPO to deliver Arctic air into the E US highly anomalous, semi-permanent 50/50 ULL signal for a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Rockies as the PNA trends neutral... likely ending up slightly positive due to the Pacific Rex block I want to see increased ENS support for this progression, mainly from the GEFS, but this is about as high-end of a pattern progression as you can get. compare this to the 7-day preloading composite for NYC's 18"+ storms... there are any of the same pattern features, namely the decaying west-based block and deep 50/50 ULL. this composite applies for you guys, as well. the same pattern is needed for NYC south to see its biggest storms I don't mean to honk this early, but this is the best looking pattern progression since Feb 2021, which was the last classic MA blizzard (unfortunately scraped you guys to the N). many of the same features show up there, as well. it's not a coincidence

sorry for the LR OP run, but this is absolutely absurd

ECMWF is literally showing a HECS setup and there are concerns voiced about the SE ridge. what in God's name

see you next week. I highly doubt it I understand the frustration tho

I would believe that the blocking wouldn't just evaporate into thin air like that after the SPV has been torn to shreds. it usually sticks around into April, even

here's to hoping the EPS is correct, because this is pretty much as good of a look you could have for a high-end storm strong -EPO providing Arctic air, decaying west-based -NAO, stout semi-permanent 50/50, and a strong S/W ejecting out of the west and amplifying underneath the block