brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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if we see like OND at 1.8, NDJ at 1.9, and DJF at 1.7, we average +1.8 ONI and a MEI of like +1.3-1.5. sounds good to me this is almost certainly why the models are showing a moderate Nino with west-leaning forcing pattern rather than a canonical super Nino pattern
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ONI for JJA is officially +1.1, so we have cracked moderate territory for now... will need to see the two next readings, but a moderate is certain however, the RONI is only +0.57! this is a 0.53 degree difference, which is significant. the MEI will also likely lag around there, meaning that this event is still behaving like a low-end weak event https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt
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that's because Dec skews Jan/Feb warm, which are normal to slightly below normal also, seasonals are almost always too warm overall. it's rare to ever see solidly below average temps in the CONUS look at the CanSIPS for last year... it got the warmth in the E US right, but it was way too warm in the W US
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I think this is part of the reason why the seasonals are showing what they're showing
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look, I think this can end up as a very low end super Nino, but there just isn't much in the way of tropical forcing or WWBs that'll keep it going as of now. I can see things stagnating as we head through the month
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I'm not acting like a dick at all. stop projecting where did I even spike the ball? you don't think "Paul Roundy told me" is at least a little bit funny? like come on. if someone came in here and said that JB told them it would be a cold and snowy winter you'd be foaming at the mouth and biting down on your keyboard talking about how vapid and asinine the person is lmao
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Paul Roundy super Nino
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new ECMWF seasonal looks like the CanSIPS. strong blocking with split flow after a mild December
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I'm still good with 1.7-1.9 on the trimonthly ONI with the MEI likely peaking at like 1.4-1.6
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seems like we're coming to a consensus on the Nino strength here as the ECMWF significantly weakened the peak
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if the seasonals are still showing this for the October runs, then that's likely the point where they're likely right on how things will generally go. I think we are approaching that point
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it’s probably a down cycle with some CC sprinkled in there -
as long as the PNA just remains neutral, blocking will be a thousand times more effective than it was last year
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overall, I can see the winter ending ip slightly warmer than average, but I expect February to be cold. it shows a typical back loaded winter… a Dec torch will offset the later cold departures
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well, that’s one of the reasons i’m a bit weenie-ish here. i forecast for a living and i need to pull in the reins at work so I let it out more here
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sorry, but with all due respect, i’m not sure if you can really comment on a pretty well-respected forecaster’s track record and talk about how horrible it is when for the last few years you’d talk about how every shortwave hitting the atlantic would turn into a historic Boston blizzard
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people are going to be shitting themselves in December. I can see it already
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I get this for Feb when I run mine through the wringer. pretty solidly AN 10mb heights
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yeah that's a sign that it's picking up on a ton of activity there
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it's also picking up on the stronger forcing near the dateline for September that the global ensembles are seeing... this is a good sign
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Nino is a touch weaker and the forcing ticked west, if anything
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CanSIPS still looks great! about what I would expect. a crappy start, a transition into a better pattern in Jan, then the hammer comes down once into February and March I am expecting December to torch, by the way. analogs are hinting pretty strongly at it
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yup. we're getting to the point where the seasonals are going to get the general flavor of the winter correct... sure, they might be a bit off, of course, but they usually don't completely flop at this point. the CanSIPS had this for last winter at this point, and it got it right generally
