brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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I'm not acting like a dick at all. stop projecting where did I even spike the ball? you don't think "Paul Roundy told me" is at least a little bit funny? like come on. if someone came in here and said that JB told them it would be a cold and snowy winter you'd be foaming at the mouth and biting down on your keyboard talking about how vapid and asinine the person is lmao
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Paul Roundy super Nino
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new ECMWF seasonal looks like the CanSIPS. strong blocking with split flow after a mild December
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I'm still good with 1.7-1.9 on the trimonthly ONI with the MEI likely peaking at like 1.4-1.6
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seems like we're coming to a consensus on the Nino strength here as the ECMWF significantly weakened the peak
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if the seasonals are still showing this for the October runs, then that's likely the point where they're likely right on how things will generally go. I think we are approaching that point
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it’s probably a down cycle with some CC sprinkled in there -
as long as the PNA just remains neutral, blocking will be a thousand times more effective than it was last year
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overall, I can see the winter ending ip slightly warmer than average, but I expect February to be cold. it shows a typical back loaded winter… a Dec torch will offset the later cold departures
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well, that’s one of the reasons i’m a bit weenie-ish here. i forecast for a living and i need to pull in the reins at work so I let it out more here
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sorry, but with all due respect, i’m not sure if you can really comment on a pretty well-respected forecaster’s track record and talk about how horrible it is when for the last few years you’d talk about how every shortwave hitting the atlantic would turn into a historic Boston blizzard
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people are going to be shitting themselves in December. I can see it already
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I get this for Feb when I run mine through the wringer. pretty solidly AN 10mb heights
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yeah that's a sign that it's picking up on a ton of activity there
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it's also picking up on the stronger forcing near the dateline for September that the global ensembles are seeing... this is a good sign
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Nino is a touch weaker and the forcing ticked west, if anything
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CanSIPS still looks great! about what I would expect. a crappy start, a transition into a better pattern in Jan, then the hammer comes down once into February and March I am expecting December to torch, by the way. analogs are hinting pretty strongly at it
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yup. we're getting to the point where the seasonals are going to get the general flavor of the winter correct... sure, they might be a bit off, of course, but they usually don't completely flop at this point. the CanSIPS had this for last winter at this point, and it got it right generally
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not sure yet. it's going to come out on TT this evening
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this will do just that
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nah it's just loaded all the way through. I expect December to be on the warmer side though this is also the MSLP anomaly... the 500mb will be different but should still show a potent -NAO
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loaded
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you guys are going to like this
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