brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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here's to hoping the EPS is correct, because this is pretty much as good of a look you could have for a high-end storm strong -EPO providing Arctic air, decaying west-based -NAO, stout semi-permanent 50/50, and a strong S/W ejecting out of the west and amplifying underneath the block
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the UKMET is awful with thermals. I wouldn't pay too much attention to its accumulation forecasts in marginal situations. I'd expect 1 - 3" in the city
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better than nothing
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UKMET made a really nice change with the confluence in SE Canada. probably the most important takeaway from this run
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GEFS is improved. weaker vort, but the main change is in the confluence, which is notably stronger and further S over SE Canada leads to a colder tick. not amazing, but it's something
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yeah, I liked seeing the initial confluence tick stronger, that's big in this kind of setup
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GEFS should improve... weaker vort and slightly better confluence
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holy crap
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I'm inclined to believe the GFS is in outer space, but let's wait for the ECMWF
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crusher
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CMC is actually stronger with the confluence. looks like the GFS is on an island so far
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CMC is more like the ICON than the GFS so far
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the biggest difference between the ICON and GFS is that the ICON breaks a piece of vorticity from the trough and sends it east while the GFS phases it into the trough. which one is correct? who the hell knows, but they are both possible at this point
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actually became a lot stronger with the confluence. the GFS probably won't care though and end up cutting to Chicago lmao -
much more confluence. it's the most important thing in this setup, and models are going to have fits with it, as per usual. might be one of the hardest things to forecast at range due to the proximity of the TPV this looks great with the potent 500mb low running into strong confluence. would result in heavy precip
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nice. big shift south here. hopefully this starts 00z off right
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ICON looks like it'll be colder. weaker vort and significantly lower heights downstream due to more confluence
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you would think we'd learn after the medium range debacle for the Monday storm doesn't look as good today, but I would not be surprised to see confluence increase again with the blocking finally in place. either way, even with the crappier solutions, a front-end thump is still possible, similar to what the 12z ECMWF OP showed earlier
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PDO stands for Pacific Decadal Oscillation
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I wouldn’t consider a threat dead at 5 days out. no need. models often do a horrible job with handling confluence I would agree that it’s not looking good, though, but Boston had 12-18” 4 days out for Monday and they’re getting like 2-4” now
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GFS is a step in the right direction though. lower heights in SE Canada and a weaker vort
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hey, anything is something. stopping the bleeding at least
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GFS going to be weaker and south. weaker S/W itself as well as lower heights in SE Canada
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i suppose ensembles have been thrown out the window
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GEPS actually took a nice step south
