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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    slightly OT as we wait for the ECMWF, but the GEFS synoptically looks pretty great for 3/4. stout -NAO and a 50/50 signal as well with a digging trough over the eastern half of the country this is a good signal for a storm that'll be affected by confluence with the nascent 50/50 and -NAO dipole
  2. brooklynwx99
    interestingly enough, there are a handful of members that jackpot the N Mid-Atlantic and leave NE with scraps. one is even suppressed down to DC looking at the 500mb from each member, it's apparent that these members have higher heights initially, leading to the S/W digging more and ending up farther S. this allows less influence from the primary SLP take these two members, for example. member 28 on the left likely has a progressive front-end thump with the greatest amounts in NNE. however, member 29 on the right has a pretty classic DCA-PHL-NYC axis that is certainly influenced by confluent flow to the N. so, I think this bears a lot of watching. we want to see the S/W amped for a farther S track. all of the members that have this kind of snowfall distribution (members 20, 21, 27, 29) have the same initially amped S/W
  3. brooklynwx99
    interestingly enough, there are a handful of members that jackpot the N Mid-Atlantic and leave NE with scraps. one is even suppressed down to DC looking at the 500mb from each member, it's apparent that these members have higher heights initially, leading to the S/W digging more and ending up farther S. this allows less influence from the primary SLP take these two members, for example. member 28 on the left likely has a progressive front-end thump with the greatest amounts in NNE. however, member 29 on the right has a pretty classic DCA-PHL-NYC axis that is certainly influenced by confluent flow to the N. so, I think this bears a lot of watching, as it seems that the heights out west as the S/W ejects have a significant impact on the amount of latitude gain. all of the members that have this kind of snowfall distribution (members 20, 21, 27, 29) have the same initially amped S/W
  4. brooklynwx99
    the GEFS actually made a move in the colder direction. lower downstream heights and touch more confluence
  5. brooklynwx99
    GFS has more confluence so far
  6. brooklynwx99
    I think you're in a great spot. I would say if we get to 00z and we're in around the same spot, there's going to be a storm. let's get through today and see what happens
  7. brooklynwx99
    GFS is colder at 06z. big increase in the strength of the confluence. what a trend over the last full model cycle
  8. brooklynwx99
    GFS is colder at 06z. big increase in the strength of the confluence. what a trend over the last full model cycle
  9. brooklynwx99
    the PNA isn’t totally what dictates how far N/S this goes… the confluence is just as responsible for that, IMO however, if that ridge in the SW keeps amping as the block kinda shoves the S/W over the WC back a bit, this will also allow for the storm to dig a bit more S and amplify. would be a net positive
  10. brooklynwx99
    it would be difficult to suppress this storm that far S without an established west-based block. those usually have stronger confluence centered over ME with an east-based block, the confluence is a bit more tenuous and storms can gain latitude easier. my cutoff was a bit arbitrary, but i find it hard to see this getting suppressed. it’s far more likely that this trends back N rather than that
  11. brooklynwx99
    the farthest south significant snow can get IMO is like Middlesex County, NJ. you guys in SNE are in a great spot
  12. brooklynwx99
    Christ
  13. brooklynwx99
    pretty clear trend here since 18z yesterday. weaker primary and a much quicker transfer. also note the increasing pressure N of ME
  14. brooklynwx99
    even better. holy crap. a touch more confluence and a stronger, farther S shortwave
  15. brooklynwx99
    nah BDB was definitely an A. came right up from the GoM. luckily it occluded right over us
  16. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it hinges on the block, IMO. if that trends weaker, the positive shifts today completely reverse as it'll speed up the flow and lead to a less amped and warmer solution. if it trends stronger, the system slows and ticks S, putting a SNE-HV-NYC bomb on the table in terms of the second piece, I think we want to see that half-assed Plains ridging tick up in strength. if it does, there's a greater chance that the second piece dives in, phases, and bring the potential through the roof. the ECMWF seemed increase the strength of it at 12z also, the off-hour EPS runs are in range, which is huge. those are a real blessing
  17. brooklynwx99
    the GEFS is much more favorable... pretty big shift to the EPS with a lot more confluence. increases the snow mean by a ton as a result this is easily the best threat the NYC metro has had all winter. beats late December by a mile
  18. brooklynwx99
    this is easily the best threat for CNE/SNE towards NYC that we've had all winter. not close hopefully we can hold until it's within 4-5 days
  19. brooklynwx99
    holy shit GEFS
  20. brooklynwx99
    FWIW i do think this is thread worthy. but why does it have to be prefaced like that
  21. brooklynwx99
    GEFS has much more confluence than 12z and a more amped S/W. the GEFS usually follows the GFS at this range, but i’ll take it. it’s a good shift
  22. brooklynwx99
    dude.
  23. brooklynwx99
    futility
  24. brooklynwx99
    one more shift like this and NYC-BOS is hammered. the block is slowing down and amplifying the flow
  25. brooklynwx99
    everyone is going to win here. wow wow wow.
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