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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    it's also worth noting that if there is a legit coastal, it will almost certainly be cold enough. there would be no concerns about precip type if you have a sub-1000mb low passing to your south
  2. brooklynwx99
    here we go. the GEFS has a legitimate storm signal with multiple <980 SLPs that are suppressed. this is the ideal spot for the GEFS to be IMO. strong and suppressed. this is the first run with anything even close to this kind of coastal signal straight up cave. I'm becoming more and more confident that the EPS has the right idea with the overall evolution
  3. brooklynwx99
    definitely an improvement on the GEFS. should get more of the vorticity out of the west on this run. notice the increase in heights over S CA
  4. brooklynwx99
    the CMC's evolution does not agree with its own ensemble... the GEPS agrees with the EPS. as of right now, I am highly prioritizing the ENS due to the uncertainty of the pattern features also the GFS does end up popping a big coastal at the end of the run. there will be lots of chances in this pattern. not one and done
  5. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the GFS basically retrogrades the main vort into the ocean instead of shooting it east like the GEPS/EPS. it's so different from everything else that I still can't really believe its depiction yet either way, it seems like it's keying in on the later timeframe between the 13-16th. either way, we will probably get something. don't see how we get out of this unscathed
  6. brooklynwx99
    idk. I feel like people are focusing more on the +50 meter anomaly dying SE ridge instead of the other highly anomalous pattern drivers that will make more of a difference sure, there could be an unfavorable outcome, but it would not be due to that... suppression or a lack of a vort entirely is more likely to screw this I don't even mean to be argumentative. I'm just kinda confused
  7. brooklynwx99
    how? there's going to be mild height rises ahead of a trough like that, and there's a beastly 50/50 in place. not to mention the blocking
  8. brooklynwx99
    the whole evolution is wild. the S/W slides under the block and amplifies as the block decays. 50/50 in place. it's a great setup
  9. brooklynwx99
    lmao if this is the pattern projected by the best ENS at 8 days out and everyone wants to downplay it for whatever reason, then whatever, but it's a bit foolish to me. I personally don't understand it at all
  10. brooklynwx99
    that has absolutely nothing to do with this event
  11. brooklynwx99
    I personally don't care what the snowfall outputs are when the longwave pattern is this favorable. something big usually pops there, and it often favors BOS to DCA compare this to the pattern one day before all of NYC's 18"+ storms. the pattern shown here and the composite are very similar. that's why it's exciting
  12. brooklynwx99
    I get what you mean, but I feel like you're missing the forest for the trees here. the longwave setup is almost perfect. will it produce? we can't say that yet, but this pattern gives us a much, much better shot than normal
  13. brooklynwx99
    lmao it's like 8 days out. the ensembles are way more important than the OP the OP is basically betting on one ENS member to give you snow. makes no sense at this range
  14. brooklynwx99
    I say this with all due respect, but I am not sure what else you'd want to look for on a Day 8 ENS output for major storm potential. it checks every box I don't care about snowfall output when I see that high-end 500mb configuration. lots of members pop coastals, but of course there's going to be a lot of spread at this range when 52 members are involved
  15. brooklynwx99
    the bang usually occurs when the -NAO decays. that's why this signal is so compelling I do think that the models are overdoing just how fast the NAO decays, though. we should see some semblance of it for much of the month, but this is the main event
  16. brooklynwx99
    EPS is absurd for next weekend there's pretty much everything here for a major storm vigorous S/W digging over the Plains decaying -NAO over north central Canada highly anomalous 50/50 ULL ridging building upstream
  17. brooklynwx99
    EPS is absurd for next weekend there's pretty much everything here for a major storm vigorous S/W digging over the Plains decaying -NAO over north central Canada highly anomalous 50/50 ULL ridging building upstream
  18. brooklynwx99
    there's pretty much everything here for a major storm vigorous S/W digging over the Plains decaying -NAO over north central Canada highly anomalous 50/50 ULL ridging building upstream
  19. brooklynwx99
    jesus christ
  20. brooklynwx99
    GEPS is gorgeous. -NAO decays, +PNA moves east, and the S/W amplifies with the 50/50 in place
  21. brooklynwx99
    GEPS looks absolutely mint
  22. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks like it should eject more of the vort this run
  23. brooklynwx99
    high amplitude blocking patterns like this are absolute hell for modeling. I would just focus on the ensembles and really try not to place too much emphasis on OP runs. there are going to be so many wildly different solutions either way, I find it hard to believe that an impactful storm won't pop from this at some point through the 15th, even if most OP runs don't see it now. this is a powder keg setup
  24. brooklynwx99
    CMC looks similar to 00z so far anyway
  25. brooklynwx99
    I think it's lost
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