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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    it’s better than the GFS, i’d say so
  2. brooklynwx99
    this could be someone’s new avatar that is absurd lmao
  3. brooklynwx99
    the CMC does eject a stronger vort into the flow… this is really what does it
  4. brooklynwx99
    this doesn’t require any analysis. holy shit.
  5. brooklynwx99
    yeah I think this continues to move towards the EPS/GEFS line of thinking. definitely not in the other direction
  6. brooklynwx99
    either way, the main thing will be how the ENS behave. this is such a cracked out and exotic pattern that the OP runs are going to vary wildly
  7. brooklynwx99
    we FINALLY have actual vorticity in the flow on the GFS. can’t believe the day is here
  8. brooklynwx99
    fuck the R train LMAO also my name is Kyle
  9. brooklynwx99
    oh shit. it might actually send a legit vort into the blocked flow. differences from 18z are night and day
  10. brooklynwx99
    wow. this is way different. game on if that southern piece gets booted east
  11. brooklynwx99
    I wouldn’t be so sure with the suppressive pattern. this is probably as good of a pattern as possible for you guys to get late season snow
  12. brooklynwx99
    GFS looks like it’ll eject a healthier vort. block is stronger too
  13. brooklynwx99
    haha i am living in Morristown 95% of the time tho. grew up in Brooklyn and moved out to the burbs for work anyway, hopefully we keep the momentum going. the whole MA needs it (yes, including NYC haha)
  14. brooklynwx99
    thank you! posters from way back when helped me do the same when I was a kid so i try and help others gain the same insights that I did! they’re fascinating. and trust me, I learn every day both at my job and even here
  15. brooklynwx99
    it’s pretty much the same. not really worth posting about
  16. brooklynwx99
    some people, like myself and a handful of others, find the way weather patterns evolve interesting and try and forecast them. and then try and determine threats and track them too
  17. brooklynwx99
    haha trust me, myself and some others here have been tracking this threat window since the SSWE popped up on radar. this threat window is like a month in the making lmao
  18. brooklynwx99
    looks like the GEFS is finally caving towards the EPS/GEPS with its handling of the WC S/W it now has a legitimate storm signal with multiple <980 SLPs that are suppressed. this is the ideal spot for the GEFS to be IMO. strong and suppressed. this is the first run that has had anything close to this kind of coastal signal
  19. brooklynwx99
    it's also worth noting that if there is a legit coastal, it will almost certainly be cold enough. there would be no concerns about precip type if you have a sub-1000mb low passing to your south
  20. brooklynwx99
    here we go. the GEFS has a legitimate storm signal with multiple <980 SLPs that are suppressed. this is the ideal spot for the GEFS to be IMO. strong and suppressed. this is the first run with anything even close to this kind of coastal signal straight up cave. I'm becoming more and more confident that the EPS has the right idea with the overall evolution
  21. brooklynwx99
    definitely an improvement on the GEFS. should get more of the vorticity out of the west on this run. notice the increase in heights over S CA
  22. brooklynwx99
    the CMC's evolution does not agree with its own ensemble... the GEPS agrees with the EPS. as of right now, I am highly prioritizing the ENS due to the uncertainty of the pattern features also the GFS does end up popping a big coastal at the end of the run. there will be lots of chances in this pattern. not one and done
  23. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the GFS basically retrogrades the main vort into the ocean instead of shooting it east like the GEPS/EPS. it's so different from everything else that I still can't really believe its depiction yet either way, it seems like it's keying in on the later timeframe between the 13-16th. either way, we will probably get something. don't see how we get out of this unscathed
  24. brooklynwx99
    idk. I feel like people are focusing more on the +50 meter anomaly dying SE ridge instead of the other highly anomalous pattern drivers that will make more of a difference sure, there could be an unfavorable outcome, but it would not be due to that... suppression or a lack of a vort entirely is more likely to screw this I don't even mean to be argumentative. I'm just kinda confused
  25. brooklynwx99
    how? there's going to be mild height rises ahead of a trough like that, and there's a beastly 50/50 in place. not to mention the blocking
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