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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    EPS is really interesting for early next week. vigorous S/W diving through the Lakes, SS vort out in front and the mean is sniffing out a phase. PNA ridge is also ideal. caution is advised due to the lack of true arctic cold, but this is dynamic as all hell
  2. brooklynwx99
    EPS is impressive for early next week. already seeing a phasing scenario and the PNA ridge out west is ideal. caution is advised with the lack of true arctic cold, but this looks good
  3. brooklynwx99
    I would not consider this unimpressive
  4. brooklynwx99
    pretty much every driver here is improved on the EPS: farther W ULL, stronger ridging upstream over the Rockies, stronger confluence and a deeper S/W
  5. brooklynwx99
    not so sure about that. seeing a moist wave ride along a pre-established boundary with cold air in place can work for you guys
  6. brooklynwx99
    trust me, I have seen seasons have one anomalous blocking spell to come away with nothing. but two??? that is pretty difficult to do. I'll take my chances through the 20th
  7. brooklynwx99
    yes, but get the NS to really dive south and you raise the ceiling. it's a risk I'm willing to take at this point in the season... go big or go home
  8. brooklynwx99
    the whole "no changes" shit is completely disingenuous. there have obviously been wholesale changes in the pattern. whether that leads to snow or not is a totally different story and is dependent on way more factors than simple longwave configuration
  9. brooklynwx99
    no changes?
  10. brooklynwx99
    the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well
  11. brooklynwx99
    the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well
  12. brooklynwx99
    I mean, it's not uncommon for a weaker, more progressive wave to establish a baroclinic zone / confluence for a larger, more cohesive follow-up that's pretty much what the EPS and CMC (and ENS) have trended towards
  13. brooklynwx99
    yeah, this is pretty striking from an ENS mean in the short to medium range. perhaps the Pacific is getting resolved in the way we want
  14. brooklynwx99
    the trend is the most important part here IMO, not the end result... the GFS and CMC have been moving towards the ECMWF for a while, hopefully they completely cave at the surface soon. the ENS will be very interesting
  15. brooklynwx99
    GFS making the same changes. awesome 12z suite so far
  16. brooklynwx99
    not true, the ENS show many members that have snow. just has to be wrapped up, which is certainly a possibility. the OP runs just haven't explicitly shown these scenarios yet
  17. brooklynwx99
    CMC completely caved to the ECMWF... total change in the synoptic evolution
  18. brooklynwx99
    this is laughable. complete change in the synoptic evolution
  19. brooklynwx99
    lmao worlds apart here. this is as big of a shift as you'll see at this range
  20. brooklynwx99
    CMC is significantly improved with the heights over the PAC NW
  21. brooklynwx99
    yup, ICON was a pretty nice improvement
  22. brooklynwx99
    the key here with this weekend’s threat is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this EPS run does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream
  23. brooklynwx99
    the key here is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this EPS run does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream
  24. brooklynwx99
    that small improvement over the Pacific leads to a much larger improvement over the OH Valley... this is almost back to where we were at 12z yesterday again, the key here is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream
  25. brooklynwx99
    trying to resolve that chaotic Pacific flow is going to be absolute hell for modeling
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