brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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lmao worlds apart here. this is as big of a shift as you'll see at this range -
CMC is significantly improved with the heights over the PAC NW
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yup, ICON was a pretty nice improvement
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the key here with this weekend’s threat is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this EPS run does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream
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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
the key here is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this EPS run does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream -
that small improvement over the Pacific leads to a much larger improvement over the OH Valley... this is almost back to where we were at 12z yesterday again, the key here is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream
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trying to resolve that chaotic Pacific flow is going to be absolute hell for modeling
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ECMWF looks a bit better with more separation between the ULL and S/W of interest... more ridging in the SW US as well. we need the ULL to buckle and create a semblance of a +PNA if we want any chance for a larger storm here EPS is doing the same... good to see that trend reverse
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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
in terms of climo, just from a statistical standpoint, the odds of seeing anything more than plowable on the week of the 20-27th are about the same as the 13-20th. the dynamic outcomes of the seasonal transition probably outweigh the sun angle stuff. it's really the week of the 27th into April when things fall off a cliff -
they were good, just not enough. GFS has been absolutely lost with this setup, though
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FWIW the ICON made a really nice improvement with the PNA
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12z looked great today, though. not seeing the issue there
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it’s one run, this is 6 days out, and this is still a strong signal. jeez
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just whine
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yeah, the GFS doesn’t buckle that ULL off the BC coast, it’s an outlier in that regard. pretty much every other model does. it has a fundamentally different evolution
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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
brooklynwx99 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
hahaha honestly, you got it down pat. I do think that you guys can certainly see appreciable snow out of this, but it will be tougher with a more Miller B type setup however, if the wave digs enough like on the EPS, you guys can cash in, would just take more doing. however, this kind of 500mb setup favors NYC northward we will see, though! there are 6 more days and hopefully we can get this thing to dig and really bomb out for a DCA-NYC-BOS storm -
this is insane
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the UKMET did, as a matter of fact. full +PNA during the evolution
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trust me, that kind of 500mb evolution presents high end potential
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watch how the block forces the S/W underneath... it leads to rapid intensification and negative tilting. big signal for a strong Miller B heights are actually decreasing out ahead of the trough due to the confluence! very dynamic setup verbatim
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watch how the block forces the S/W underneath... it leads to rapid intensification and negative tilting. big signal for a strong Miller B heights are actually decreasing out ahead of the trough due to the confluence! very dynamic setup verbatim
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UKMET is a nuke
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if we can get that ULL sitting over BC to buckle and interact with the ULL in the Pacific and buckle the PNA... would be explosive. that's pretty much what the ECMWF did
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caving is an understatement
