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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    just whine
  2. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the GFS doesn’t buckle that ULL off the BC coast, it’s an outlier in that regard. pretty much every other model does. it has a fundamentally different evolution
  3. brooklynwx99
    hahaha honestly, you got it down pat. I do think that you guys can certainly see appreciable snow out of this, but it will be tougher with a more Miller B type setup however, if the wave digs enough like on the EPS, you guys can cash in, would just take more doing. however, this kind of 500mb setup favors NYC northward we will see, though! there are 6 more days and hopefully we can get this thing to dig and really bomb out for a DCA-NYC-BOS storm
  4. brooklynwx99
    this is insane
  5. brooklynwx99
    the UKMET did, as a matter of fact. full +PNA during the evolution
  6. brooklynwx99
    trust me, that kind of 500mb evolution presents high end potential
  7. brooklynwx99
    watch how the block forces the S/W underneath... it leads to rapid intensification and negative tilting. big signal for a strong Miller B heights are actually decreasing out ahead of the trough due to the confluence! very dynamic setup verbatim
  8. brooklynwx99
    watch how the block forces the S/W underneath... it leads to rapid intensification and negative tilting. big signal for a strong Miller B heights are actually decreasing out ahead of the trough due to the confluence! very dynamic setup verbatim
  9. brooklynwx99
    UKMET is a nuke
  10. brooklynwx99
    if we can get that ULL sitting over BC to buckle and interact with the ULL in the Pacific and buckle the PNA... would be explosive. that's pretty much what the ECMWF did
  11. brooklynwx99
    lmao GFS
  12. brooklynwx99
    caving is an understatement
  13. brooklynwx99
    it is a complete outlier and is trending towards the other models. i have no reason to trust it at this point also, the trend this winter has been to strengthen the Pacific jet, if anything, so the trends towards other model guidance make sense IMO
  14. brooklynwx99
    this event seems to come down to how zonal the Pacific jet is. the GFS is trending towards a more zonal Pacific jet, which helps boot the S/W out of the west instead of letting it dig. this is key to getting a coastal storm here the trend is continuing on the 12z GFS... look at the E PAC ridge weakening and the increase in interaction between the S/W and ULL over the Pacific. look off of the CA coast. the increased strength of the PAC jet leads to a much weaker S/W this run
  15. brooklynwx99
    as a result of that tiny change in the strength of the Pacific jet, the GFS is much less amplified out west
  16. brooklynwx99
    it seems to be how zonal the Pacific jet is. the GFS is trending towards a more zonal Pacific jet, which helps boot the S/W out of the west instead of letting it dig. this is key to getting a coastal storm here the trend is continuing on the 12z GFS... look at the E PAC ridge weakening and the increase in interaction between the S/W and ULL over the Pacific. look off of the CA coast
  17. brooklynwx99
    not all events are the same. the GFS is clearly the outlier and will be treated as such
  18. brooklynwx99
    yup, pretty much zonal out west now
  19. brooklynwx99
    nah, it was improved. not much change in sensible weather, but it was a step in the right direction
  20. brooklynwx99
    they were pretty similar
  21. brooklynwx99
    trending
  22. brooklynwx99
    the progression on the EPS is quite similar to that of Feb 2021 with the vigorous S/W getting forced underneath the block. it's not very far off. what a shift here just keep in mind that this is not the end solution at all... but the overall synoptics might not be failing us as we previously thought. gotta trust the pattern to produce
  23. brooklynwx99
    it's clear that the relationship between the Pacific jet and S/W is extremely delicate and OP runs won't really show us much when the setup is this chaotic. the Pacific jet has also been undermodeled all year, which actually works in our favor this time. just wait for the EPS
  24. brooklynwx99
    yup, great shifts on both ENS so far at 12z. probably has to do with the faster Pacific jet allowing the S/W to scoot E without amplifying so much
  25. brooklynwx99
    GEPS is also vastly improved. great 12z ENS runs so far
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