brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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indian ocean
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i get that, but there is a strong El Nino ongoing with strong IO forcing. that should run the show. sure, will we get some periods where the forcing drifts into the MC? yes, but I don't think it'll be a consistent feature. the MJO should stay in 7-8-1-2 for the most part, pushing into 3 and 4 at times
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if we had this pattern a month from now I'd be more excited, but it's still too early to see much unless there's a really anomalous setup
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it absolutely had an impact IMO
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also it's not like it doesn't get cold... just delayed by a day, pretty typical medium range errors when phasing is involved
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the IO forcing is pretty handily running the show, though. i don't think the two are really related... there isn't some permanent Nina background state, we've just had a bunch of them recently
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much better WB -NAO blocking showing up due to the stronger phase of the Thanksgiving system. hopefully we see this continue
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GEFS has a better phase with the Thanksgiving system and much more WB -NAO blocking as a result. let’s see if this can remain consistent
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GEFS has a better phase with the Thanksgiving system and much more WB -NAO blocking as a result. let’s see if this can remain consistent
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- wishcasting
- almost winter
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good overrunning look there. would be much more excited if it was a month later
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shit is so annoying lmao
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and you need multiple trimonthlies for a super Nino… really for any category of event
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this should be a temporary spike… there doesn’t appear to be another WWB that will sustain the warmth. so i could see a week or so of values over 2C, but a monthly period will be tough to do. let alone a trimonthly period
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still gets many on the board regardless, but it is a strong outlier
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this is hilarious
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i’ll never forget when he was posting about the above average temps for the following week during the Jan 2022 blizzard. told me all i need to know lmao
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i don’t know how some are seeing that massive bullseye of warmth near the dateline and are calling this a canonical EP Nino that is not typical, and it’s definitely helping lean the forcing west
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i think we just had one really shit winter and people kinda forgot that it can get significantly cold. the west has just had its run lately
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you realize this month has been solidly below normal, right? i don’t think any stars have aligned… seems like a normal cold pattern Boston is -2.5 MTD and has had four -9 days compared to one +10 day. going to have more sig cold days coming up as well
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why would the Aleutian low be placed farther east than even the canonical super events when 1) this likely won’t have the same magnitude of strength even with raw ONI 2) forcing has been well west, and will continue to stay west for the foreseeable future he has lost his damn mind. he is basically just saying shit at this point
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yeah, probably. we could still see a decent event into NE (especially interior and north) through the end of the month before things moderate into early December the tropical forcing we're seeing now will pay dividends once we get later into winter, though
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are you referring to like after the 26th or so? because it looks frigid for this time of year for Thanksgiving and the next couple of days that follow
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seems like it's cooling the EP and warming the WP to me
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if we were going to get on the board early, this would be the pattern to do it with
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might as well try to start off hot going into December
