Jump to content

brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF looks a bit better with more separation between the ULL and S/W of interest... more ridging in the SW US as well. we need the ULL to buckle and create a semblance of a +PNA if we want any chance for a larger storm here EPS is doing the same... good to see that trend reverse
  2. brooklynwx99
    in terms of climo, just from a statistical standpoint, the odds of seeing anything more than plowable on the week of the 20-27th are about the same as the 13-20th. the dynamic outcomes of the seasonal transition probably outweigh the sun angle stuff. it's really the week of the 27th into April when things fall off a cliff
  3. brooklynwx99
    they were good, just not enough. GFS has been absolutely lost with this setup, though
  4. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the ICON made a really nice improvement with the PNA
  5. brooklynwx99
    12z looked great today, though. not seeing the issue there
  6. brooklynwx99
    it’s one run, this is 6 days out, and this is still a strong signal. jeez
  7. brooklynwx99
    just whine
  8. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the GFS doesn’t buckle that ULL off the BC coast, it’s an outlier in that regard. pretty much every other model does. it has a fundamentally different evolution
  9. brooklynwx99
    hahaha honestly, you got it down pat. I do think that you guys can certainly see appreciable snow out of this, but it will be tougher with a more Miller B type setup however, if the wave digs enough like on the EPS, you guys can cash in, would just take more doing. however, this kind of 500mb setup favors NYC northward we will see, though! there are 6 more days and hopefully we can get this thing to dig and really bomb out for a DCA-NYC-BOS storm
  10. brooklynwx99
    this is insane
  11. brooklynwx99
    the UKMET did, as a matter of fact. full +PNA during the evolution
  12. brooklynwx99
    trust me, that kind of 500mb evolution presents high end potential
  13. brooklynwx99
    watch how the block forces the S/W underneath... it leads to rapid intensification and negative tilting. big signal for a strong Miller B heights are actually decreasing out ahead of the trough due to the confluence! very dynamic setup verbatim
  14. brooklynwx99
    watch how the block forces the S/W underneath... it leads to rapid intensification and negative tilting. big signal for a strong Miller B heights are actually decreasing out ahead of the trough due to the confluence! very dynamic setup verbatim
  15. brooklynwx99
    UKMET is a nuke
  16. brooklynwx99
    if we can get that ULL sitting over BC to buckle and interact with the ULL in the Pacific and buckle the PNA... would be explosive. that's pretty much what the ECMWF did
  17. brooklynwx99
    lmao GFS
  18. brooklynwx99
    caving is an understatement
  19. brooklynwx99
    it is a complete outlier and is trending towards the other models. i have no reason to trust it at this point also, the trend this winter has been to strengthen the Pacific jet, if anything, so the trends towards other model guidance make sense IMO
  20. brooklynwx99
    this event seems to come down to how zonal the Pacific jet is. the GFS is trending towards a more zonal Pacific jet, which helps boot the S/W out of the west instead of letting it dig. this is key to getting a coastal storm here the trend is continuing on the 12z GFS... look at the E PAC ridge weakening and the increase in interaction between the S/W and ULL over the Pacific. look off of the CA coast. the increased strength of the PAC jet leads to a much weaker S/W this run
  21. brooklynwx99
    as a result of that tiny change in the strength of the Pacific jet, the GFS is much less amplified out west
  22. brooklynwx99
    it seems to be how zonal the Pacific jet is. the GFS is trending towards a more zonal Pacific jet, which helps boot the S/W out of the west instead of letting it dig. this is key to getting a coastal storm here the trend is continuing on the 12z GFS... look at the E PAC ridge weakening and the increase in interaction between the S/W and ULL over the Pacific. look off of the CA coast
  23. brooklynwx99
    not all events are the same. the GFS is clearly the outlier and will be treated as such
  24. brooklynwx99
    yup, pretty much zonal out west now
  25. brooklynwx99
    nah, it was improved. not much change in sensible weather, but it was a step in the right direction
×
×
  • Create New...