Jump to content

brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,651

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    it is a complete outlier and is trending towards the other models. i have no reason to trust it at this point also, the trend this winter has been to strengthen the Pacific jet, if anything, so the trends towards other model guidance make sense IMO
  2. brooklynwx99
    this event seems to come down to how zonal the Pacific jet is. the GFS is trending towards a more zonal Pacific jet, which helps boot the S/W out of the west instead of letting it dig. this is key to getting a coastal storm here the trend is continuing on the 12z GFS... look at the E PAC ridge weakening and the increase in interaction between the S/W and ULL over the Pacific. look off of the CA coast. the increased strength of the PAC jet leads to a much weaker S/W this run
  3. brooklynwx99
    as a result of that tiny change in the strength of the Pacific jet, the GFS is much less amplified out west
  4. brooklynwx99
    it seems to be how zonal the Pacific jet is. the GFS is trending towards a more zonal Pacific jet, which helps boot the S/W out of the west instead of letting it dig. this is key to getting a coastal storm here the trend is continuing on the 12z GFS... look at the E PAC ridge weakening and the increase in interaction between the S/W and ULL over the Pacific. look off of the CA coast
  5. brooklynwx99
    not all events are the same. the GFS is clearly the outlier and will be treated as such
  6. brooklynwx99
    yup, pretty much zonal out west now
  7. brooklynwx99
    nah, it was improved. not much change in sensible weather, but it was a step in the right direction
  8. brooklynwx99
    they were pretty similar
  9. brooklynwx99
    trending
  10. brooklynwx99
    the progression on the EPS is quite similar to that of Feb 2021 with the vigorous S/W getting forced underneath the block. it's not very far off. what a shift here just keep in mind that this is not the end solution at all... but the overall synoptics might not be failing us as we previously thought. gotta trust the pattern to produce
  11. brooklynwx99
    it's clear that the relationship between the Pacific jet and S/W is extremely delicate and OP runs won't really show us much when the setup is this chaotic. the Pacific jet has also been undermodeled all year, which actually works in our favor this time. just wait for the EPS
  12. brooklynwx99
    yup, great shifts on both ENS so far at 12z. probably has to do with the faster Pacific jet allowing the S/W to scoot E without amplifying so much
  13. brooklynwx99
    GEPS is also vastly improved. great 12z ENS runs so far
  14. brooklynwx99
    looking like a redevelopment/Miller B type event here with a dying primary in the OH Valley and baggy isobars off OBX
  15. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is night and day. love seeing the trough link up with the confluence as well. block is farther N, leading to a lower chance of linking with the height rises ahead of the trough great run. this is a major step in the right direction
  16. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is night and day. love seeing the trough link up with the confluence as well. block is farther N, leading to a lower chance of linking with the height rises ahead of the trough great run. this is a major step in the right direction
  17. brooklynwx99
    wow. GEFS is much, much improved due to the more zonal Pacific jet
  18. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is way less amped
  19. brooklynwx99
    same on CMC
  20. brooklynwx99
    CMC made the same improvements with the Pacific jet and poleward ridging into AK. should be better this run
  21. brooklynwx99
    i know we didn’t get what we wanted out of it, but these are noticeable shifts in the right direction
  22. brooklynwx99
    lower heights over the E Pac, higher heights over AK and a shallower trough. all good stuff
  23. brooklynwx99
    GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution
  24. brooklynwx99
    GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution
  25. brooklynwx99
    06z EPS made another shift towards knocking down the WC ridge due to a more zonal Pacific jet… the incoming S/W is weaker as a result
×
×
  • Create New...