brooklynwx99

two highly anomalous, retrograding -NAOs and nearly nothing to show. I have never seen anything like it... this winter has been an exercise in futility both patterns produced very big storms, but the devil was in the details. what a cursed winter. if we get another one of these we're gonna cash in. no way 3 in a row can be this ineffectual also, the -NAO is not overrated in terms of big storm potential... it is the main index that controls whether you can get a 12"+ storm or just a nickel/dime event due to the way it modulates the pattern over the N Atl

two highly anomalous, retrograding -NAOs and nearly nothing to show outside of interior CNE/NNE. I have never seen anything like it... this winter has been an exercise in futility

GEFS looks wayyyyy better than the OP. amped southern stream wave with HP in a good spot over the Northeast

i like the ideally placed, strong HP. climo is obviously the issue here

this is all that needs to be seen. carry on

yeah this is so finicky with a delicate phasing setup like this. really difficult to see where this is going. you could make a case for the GFS or ECMWF. no way to know

the PNA ridge on the ICON is stronger though? it’s the southern stream energy that’s a bit weaker

yeah the increased ridging out west lets the northern stream vort dive into the trough, leading to an earlier, colder phase

yeah, 925mb is more useful and those temps are definitely cold enough

this is the difference maker. all by itself

yup. 32-33 degree wet snow bomb

925mb is below freezing, it would absolutely rip verbatim. models are going to overdo sfc temps with that amount of lift

that increased PNA ridging is such a game changer. leads to an earlier phase and way more cold air to tap into UKMET did the same thing

absurd height falls. my god

the taller PNA allows for the NS lobe to drop into the trough. leads to an earlier phase and way more cold air getting infused. beautiful run

that ridge spike is the cause of this, pretty much. so much colder

the taller PNA allows for the NS lobe to drop into the trough. leads to an earlier phase and way more cold air getting infused. beautiful run

ice cold under the CCB too. that's powder away from the immediate coast

UKMET closes S of LI. MECS verbatim

looks like another shift towards it to me. deeper NS, more favorable height orientation over the EC, trough is more buckled

GFS is continuing to move towards the ECMWF. whole trough is more amped

ICON, grain of salt

yup. this looks explosive, if nothing else

NS a bit deeper, but SS probably would have kicked a bit farther SE as it’s not as wrapped up in the trough. looks good, would bomb again

yeah this kind of setup is the GFS’s real undoing. it’s still much too progressive with phasing scenarios