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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    if most of SNE wants in on it, the ECMWF / UKMET solution with a quicker transfer needs to happen. GFS is too late
  2. brooklynwx99
    the EPS is pretty crazy. scanning over the individual members, the ones that do nuke the metro are the ones that end up stalling and looping ACK southward. these probably capture the soonest. keep an eye on members 4, 11, 15, 19, 20, 21, 30, 31, 33, 34, and 43... these all have a far S stall and deliver a MECS to the area whether it happens or not is one thing, but there is certainly potential here
  3. brooklynwx99
    there is a pretty ridiculous amount of members that completely stall and loop sub-980 lows here. it's very impressive like there are 10-15 or so that straight up stall over or S of ACK. it's wild
  4. brooklynwx99
    I do like seeing the lower heights in S Canada and the ticking east of the ULL
  5. brooklynwx99
    christ
  6. brooklynwx99
    even last year with the blizzard, the ECMWF did leagues better than any other model. the GFS was awful pure coastals are the one thing that still remains as a sore spot for the GFS
  7. brooklynwx99
    I'll take my chances with that if it means I have to flirt with 2" of rain. that's the risk you have to take in mid-March anywhere near the coast
  8. brooklynwx99
    how does that not fit the pattern? Tip went on a whole diatribe about how this kind of exotic solution can arise. you have a massive lobe of vorticity over S Canada coinciding with a PNA phase change. it's not a ridiculous concept that a large storm can result
  9. brooklynwx99
    it's very difficult, but I think getting the NS lobe as far south as possible is the best way to get a big storm that can actually get cold enough. the ECMWF basically pulled off a heavy rain to blizzard type deal because of it away from the immediate coast temps are a problem, but something this dynamic is a possibility. it's intriguing if nothing else
  10. brooklynwx99
    ok
  11. brooklynwx99
    UKMET looks like it captures with the NS
  12. brooklynwx99
    that's the risk you'll have to take IMO. you need as amped as possible in mid-March even if you run the risk of a hugger
  13. brooklynwx99
    I agree... luckily that can be pretty easily remedied by a stronger PNA ridge allowing the NS to dig deeper or just random changes since we're still at Day 6. time is on our side here and the overall setup is quite explosive
  14. brooklynwx99
    a bit pessimistic considering such a dynamic system at day 6 lmao this has a lot of potential given the amount of energy being dumped into the trough but that's the tenor of the year, I suppose
  15. brooklynwx99
    yup, better PNA ridge
  16. brooklynwx99
    I agree, but with a setup that dynamic, I would roll the dice. almost always has to be a bomb to really get any appreciable snow in mid-March
  17. brooklynwx99
    high amplitude is an understatement. the Nina is dying
  18. brooklynwx99
    this is an absolute honker of a signal for this range
  19. brooklynwx99
    that evolution on the ECMWF is a nose hair from something much bigger. wouldn't take much at all... we need to see that ULL of the WC keep shifting W. if it shifts east next run, the changes at 12z could be erased. the whole setup is on a razor's edge
  20. brooklynwx99
    EPS is really interesting for early next week. vigorous S/W diving through the Lakes, SS vort out in front and the mean is sniffing out a phase. PNA ridge is also ideal. caution is advised due to the lack of true arctic cold, but this is dynamic as all hell
  21. brooklynwx99
    EPS is impressive for early next week. already seeing a phasing scenario and the PNA ridge out west is ideal. caution is advised with the lack of true arctic cold, but this looks good
  22. brooklynwx99
    I would not consider this unimpressive
  23. brooklynwx99
    pretty much every driver here is improved on the EPS: farther W ULL, stronger ridging upstream over the Rockies, stronger confluence and a deeper S/W
  24. brooklynwx99
    not so sure about that. seeing a moist wave ride along a pre-established boundary with cold air in place can work for you guys
  25. brooklynwx99
    trust me, I have seen seasons have one anomalous blocking spell to come away with nothing. but two??? that is pretty difficult to do. I'll take my chances through the 20th
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