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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    yeah this is so finicky with a delicate phasing setup like this. really difficult to see where this is going. you could make a case for the GFS or ECMWF. no way to know
  2. brooklynwx99
    the PNA ridge on the ICON is stronger though? it’s the southern stream energy that’s a bit weaker
  3. brooklynwx99
    yeah the increased ridging out west lets the northern stream vort dive into the trough, leading to an earlier, colder phase
  4. brooklynwx99
    yeah, 925mb is more useful and those temps are definitely cold enough
  5. brooklynwx99
    this is the difference maker. all by itself
  6. brooklynwx99
    yup. 32-33 degree wet snow bomb
  7. brooklynwx99
    925mb is below freezing, it would absolutely rip verbatim. models are going to overdo sfc temps with that amount of lift
  8. brooklynwx99
    that increased PNA ridging is such a game changer. leads to an earlier phase and way more cold air to tap into UKMET did the same thing
  9. brooklynwx99
    absurd height falls. my god
  10. brooklynwx99
    the taller PNA allows for the NS lobe to drop into the trough. leads to an earlier phase and way more cold air getting infused. beautiful run
  11. brooklynwx99
    that ridge spike is the cause of this, pretty much. so much colder
  12. brooklynwx99
    the taller PNA allows for the NS lobe to drop into the trough. leads to an earlier phase and way more cold air getting infused. beautiful run
  13. brooklynwx99
    ice cold under the CCB too. that's powder away from the immediate coast
  14. brooklynwx99
    UKMET closes S of LI. MECS verbatim
  15. brooklynwx99
    looks like another shift towards it to me. deeper NS, more favorable height orientation over the EC, trough is more buckled
  16. brooklynwx99
    GFS is continuing to move towards the ECMWF. whole trough is more amped
  17. brooklynwx99
    ICON, grain of salt
  18. brooklynwx99
    yup. this looks explosive, if nothing else
  19. brooklynwx99
    NS a bit deeper, but SS probably would have kicked a bit farther SE as it’s not as wrapped up in the trough. looks good, would bomb again
  20. brooklynwx99
    yeah this kind of setup is the GFS’s real undoing. it’s still much too progressive with phasing scenarios
  21. brooklynwx99
    it’s doing its best
  22. brooklynwx99
    EPS is super similar to the OP
  23. brooklynwx99
    lmao seriously though, it would be impressive. but let's get the 500mb down first. long way to go
  24. brooklynwx99
    windy
  25. brooklynwx99
    also, as silly as it sounds to mention, -1C is 30 degrees. makes a big difference if the lower levels are that cold. you're also getting adiabatic cooling. it would snow there, no question
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