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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    NS a bit deeper, but SS probably would have kicked a bit farther SE as it’s not as wrapped up in the trough. looks good, would bomb again
  2. brooklynwx99
    yeah this kind of setup is the GFS’s real undoing. it’s still much too progressive with phasing scenarios
  3. brooklynwx99
    it’s doing its best
  4. brooklynwx99
    EPS is super similar to the OP
  5. brooklynwx99
    lmao seriously though, it would be impressive. but let's get the 500mb down first. long way to go
  6. brooklynwx99
    windy
  7. brooklynwx99
    also, as silly as it sounds to mention, -1C is 30 degrees. makes a big difference if the lower levels are that cold. you're also getting adiabatic cooling. it would snow there, no question
  8. brooklynwx99
    yup, March is go big or go home. nice to see the ECMWF and UKMET agree. that used to be a deadly combo at this range, but who even knows now the EPS will be interesting. I'd like to see more of these show up
  9. brooklynwx99
    nah, 925mb temps drop to -2 to -1 with a massive CCB overhead. would rip to the coast verbatim
  10. brooklynwx99
    that kind of solution is where dynamic cooling would actually occur. 925mb temps are more useful here
  11. brooklynwx99
    that is one of the sickest 500mb evolutions i've ever seen. full capture and close E of LI
  12. brooklynwx99
    and then there's this
  13. brooklynwx99
    the UKMET actually manages to pull that off. absolutely sick 500mb evolution
  14. brooklynwx99
    if most of SNE wants in on it, the ECMWF / UKMET solution with a quicker transfer needs to happen. GFS is too late
  15. brooklynwx99
    the EPS is pretty crazy. scanning over the individual members, the ones that do nuke the metro are the ones that end up stalling and looping ACK southward. these probably capture the soonest. keep an eye on members 4, 11, 15, 19, 20, 21, 30, 31, 33, 34, and 43... these all have a far S stall and deliver a MECS to the area whether it happens or not is one thing, but there is certainly potential here
  16. brooklynwx99
    there is a pretty ridiculous amount of members that completely stall and loop sub-980 lows here. it's very impressive like there are 10-15 or so that straight up stall over or S of ACK. it's wild
  17. brooklynwx99
    I do like seeing the lower heights in S Canada and the ticking east of the ULL
  18. brooklynwx99
    christ
  19. brooklynwx99
    even last year with the blizzard, the ECMWF did leagues better than any other model. the GFS was awful pure coastals are the one thing that still remains as a sore spot for the GFS
  20. brooklynwx99
    I'll take my chances with that if it means I have to flirt with 2" of rain. that's the risk you have to take in mid-March anywhere near the coast
  21. brooklynwx99
    how does that not fit the pattern? Tip went on a whole diatribe about how this kind of exotic solution can arise. you have a massive lobe of vorticity over S Canada coinciding with a PNA phase change. it's not a ridiculous concept that a large storm can result
  22. brooklynwx99
    it's very difficult, but I think getting the NS lobe as far south as possible is the best way to get a big storm that can actually get cold enough. the ECMWF basically pulled off a heavy rain to blizzard type deal because of it away from the immediate coast temps are a problem, but something this dynamic is a possibility. it's intriguing if nothing else
  23. brooklynwx99
    ok
  24. brooklynwx99
    UKMET looks like it captures with the NS
  25. brooklynwx99
    that's the risk you'll have to take IMO. you need as amped as possible in mid-March even if you run the risk of a hugger
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