brooklynwx99

here's something for you guys to drool over for a bit. the CanSIPS is basically forecasting a high-end moderate Modoki that would have an insane February. ideal tropical forcing, neutral PDO, Pacific is mint, and there's a very active STJ along with blocking nice to see, at least

well... this would do. I would pay for this to verify basically migrates the east-based Nino into more of a Modoki. kinda makes sense when you see all the subsurface warmth near the dateline right now. the location of the tropical forcing looks great, too obviously, we aren't going to have a feel on the location of the greatest anomalies for a few more months, at least, but I don't think this is a lock to be east-based by any means. basin-wide or Modoki make more intuitive sense looking at the state of the subsurface right now

yeah there’s a bit of a lag so it’ll take until mid-late spring

La Niña

that's why I hate when people say that Pacific blocking is definitively better than Atlantic blocking. they lead to different patterns and storm types the composites for NYC's 3-6 and 6-12 inch storms are dominated by Pacific blocking NYC's 12-18 and 18+ inch storms are dominated by Atlantic blocking this is not a coincidence. if you want to get nickel, dimed, and maybe get a quarter or two thrown in there, root for a +PNA/-EPO. but if you want to get the big dogs, you need a west-based -NAO. simple as that

if you want to see a MECS or HECS, you need a -NAO. that is a fact winters like 2013-14 and 2014-15 were amazing, but they didn't have any true big dogs. very cold and active, though! but the lack of blocking directly led to the Juno heartbreak 2015-16 was a prime example. warm as hell, but there was a canonical retrograding -NAO and the rest is history. biggest storm on record

hey, the 2016 super Nino was a torch but had our biggest storm ever, so I'll take that any day

Ninas generally suck and we've had 5 in the last 7 years. they overwhelmingly force a -PNA. that's like 90% of it for me

she's not gonna let us out lmao

the retrograding block in Feb 2021 produced a historic blizzard for NYC and surrounding areas. was just a bit too far north for most of you guys, but N MD still got significant snow I'm very curious to see what a legit Nino will do. seems like the potential for a moderate Nino is increasing

yeah this is what really stumps me. there was a legit -EPO concomitant with the -NAO, so that should have provided cold air, but it didn't. what a weird year we just didn't have the PV on our side of the globe when it mattered most... it was largely in Asia in December and so far in March. I don't think this level of ineffectualness will occur again though. give us another next winter in a Nino and I'm sure we'll get smoked

but hey the Rockies now are able to get their 1873rd blizzard of the year! good for them, the ski resorts must be struggling

the wave amplifying in the Pacific crushed the ridge in the SW US. what a surprise

two highly anomalous, retrograding -NAOs and nearly nothing to show. I have never seen anything like it... this winter has been an exercise in futility both patterns produced very big storms, but the devil was in the details. what a cursed winter. if we get another one of these we're gonna cash in. no way 3 in a row can be this ineffectual also, the -NAO is not overrated in terms of big storm potential... it is the main index that controls whether you can get a 12"+ storm or just a nickel/dime event due to the way it modulates the pattern over the N Atl

two highly anomalous, retrograding -NAOs and nearly nothing to show. I have never seen anything like it... this winter has been an exercise in futility both patterns produced very big storms, but the devil was in the details. what a cursed winter. if we get another one of these we're gonna cash in. no way 3 in a row can be this ineffectual also, the -NAO is not overrated in terms of big storm potential... it is the main index that controls whether you can get a 12"+ storm or just a nickel/dime event due to the way it modulates the pattern over the N Atl

two highly anomalous, retrograding -NAOs and nearly nothing to show outside of interior CNE/NNE. I have never seen anything like it... this winter has been an exercise in futility

GEFS looks wayyyyy better than the OP. amped southern stream wave with HP in a good spot over the Northeast

i like the ideally placed, strong HP. climo is obviously the issue here

this is all that needs to be seen. carry on

yeah this is so finicky with a delicate phasing setup like this. really difficult to see where this is going. you could make a case for the GFS or ECMWF. no way to know

the PNA ridge on the ICON is stronger though? it’s the southern stream energy that’s a bit weaker

yeah the increased ridging out west lets the northern stream vort dive into the trough, leading to an earlier, colder phase

yeah, 925mb is more useful and those temps are definitely cold enough

this is the difference maker. all by itself

yup. 32-33 degree wet snow bomb