brooklynwx99

you say that, but wait until we get an onslaught of cutoffs like the west has been getting recently. what goes around comes around there has been plenty of discussion about how climate change is making it harder for the MA to get consistent snow, but what I can say with certainty is that when it rains, it pours. put Jan 2016 in this winter and BWI gets a 30 burger

forky with the weenies lmao

Modoki is just when the greatest positive anomalies are centered near the Dateline, forcing a deep trough in a really nice spot south of the Aleutians. they're also quite blocky in the Atlantic Nino 1+2 can also have negative anomalies, but it's often just the least warm portion of the ENSO domain

west-based and central-based are the same thing, just different wording. they're great for both NYC and BWI due to the persistent Aleutian LP

yeah that look makes me more inclined to think that we might get the holy grail moderate Modoki this year. all that warmth near the Dateline has to go somewhere. the CanSIPS has a nice evolution with the warmth migrating towards the Dateline as the Nino matures PDO also becomes neutral, W Atlantic really cools down. I'm honestly quite excited for next winter

we have never ever had four -ENSO years in a row, if that's any consolation. ENSO is a self-destructive process

seasonals almost never predict below average temps for entire months at that range, so the CanSIPS showing a solidly below average February is quite impressive if we get a central-based Nino we're probably going to clean up. those are almost always money

2009-10 also followed two consecutive Ninas, one of them strong during 2007-08

imagine how people in the west felt during 2013-14 and 2014-15 when they were parked under a 578dam ridge all winter. that was ALSO due to climate change. it all is. people only attribute its influence to less snowy periods when it made the snowy periods a bit more insane, too

look at it this way, this shift helps the Rockies get their 43rd blizzard of the year! they’ve really been starved for snow out there, good for them

he never said that lmao

i know, I was being facetious. either way, next winter seems like the best shot for the MA to get it good in a while. I want to break the spring barrier, but if we're staring down a moderate Nino by June, I will be pretty excited if we get a moderate Modoki I would say there's a much higher than normal chance for a 30"+ winter for BWI. they're that good. even basin-wide would give a great shot at it. just happy that we're incinerating this multi year Nina

wait a second. i forgot. we are going to see 95 Ninas in the next 110 years. and they will all suck. and maybe 5 Ninos in there, but they will be +3.0 and have the Pacific jet stretching to Iowa. the other ten will have no snow because base state

here's something for you guys to drool over for a bit. the CanSIPS is basically forecasting a high-end moderate Modoki that would have an insane February. ideal tropical forcing, neutral PDO, Pacific is mint, and there's a very active STJ along with blocking nice to see, at least

well... this would do. I would pay for this to verify basically migrates the east-based Nino into more of a Modoki. kinda makes sense when you see all the subsurface warmth near the dateline right now. the location of the tropical forcing looks great, too obviously, we aren't going to have a feel on the location of the greatest anomalies for a few more months, at least, but I don't think this is a lock to be east-based by any means. basin-wide or Modoki make more intuitive sense looking at the state of the subsurface right now

yeah there’s a bit of a lag so it’ll take until mid-late spring

La Niña

that's why I hate when people say that Pacific blocking is definitively better than Atlantic blocking. they lead to different patterns and storm types the composites for NYC's 3-6 and 6-12 inch storms are dominated by Pacific blocking NYC's 12-18 and 18+ inch storms are dominated by Atlantic blocking this is not a coincidence. if you want to get nickel, dimed, and maybe get a quarter or two thrown in there, root for a +PNA/-EPO. but if you want to get the big dogs, you need a west-based -NAO. simple as that

if you want to see a MECS or HECS, you need a -NAO. that is a fact winters like 2013-14 and 2014-15 were amazing, but they didn't have any true big dogs. very cold and active, though! but the lack of blocking directly led to the Juno heartbreak 2015-16 was a prime example. warm as hell, but there was a canonical retrograding -NAO and the rest is history. biggest storm on record

hey, the 2016 super Nino was a torch but had our biggest storm ever, so I'll take that any day

Ninas generally suck and we've had 5 in the last 7 years. they overwhelmingly force a -PNA. that's like 90% of it for me

she's not gonna let us out lmao

the retrograding block in Feb 2021 produced a historic blizzard for NYC and surrounding areas. was just a bit too far north for most of you guys, but N MD still got significant snow I'm very curious to see what a legit Nino will do. seems like the potential for a moderate Nino is increasing

yeah this is what really stumps me. there was a legit -EPO concomitant with the -NAO, so that should have provided cold air, but it didn't. what a weird year we just didn't have the PV on our side of the globe when it mattered most... it was largely in Asia in December and so far in March. I don't think this level of ineffectualness will occur again though. give us another next winter in a Nino and I'm sure we'll get smoked

but hey the Rockies now are able to get their 1873rd blizzard of the year! good for them, the ski resorts must be struggling