brooklynwx99

it means next to nothing at this point in the year. even the CanSIPS still has a highly-east based Nino for this month

yeah i get that. i just don’t really factor that in as much as other variables

“will” is a bit of an overstatement. i’m still favoring strong, and even if it does get to 2-2.1C, the RONI would likely be around 1.7, keeping the effects more strong than super anyway

there is going to be strong Nino forcing here. not concerned about anything Nina-related. no need

yeah we should see everything drift westward over the next month or two. this is a good start

and as we know, the difference between a high-end moderate and near super Nino are pretty profound even disregarding forcing I initially thought that the more moderate Modoki-esque years like 1986, 2002, and 2009 were completely useless. at this point, when looking at the lower RONI and possible west-based forcing, those years now need to be seriously considered. 2009 is actually a great analog when looking at QBO, PDO, and the summer pattern so far, surprisingly enough. with that being said, years like 1991 and 1982 still remain on the table. 1991 is also a great analog this could be a scenario where due to the WPAC warm pool, a 2C basin-wide super Nino could have the same effects as a 1.5C Modoki or close to it. I think this is what some models are trying to point out. we just don't know. pretty fascinating

not sure. this is for the fall... the dateline forcing becomes dominant and the forcing in the EPAC moves into the Gulf by winter

the forcing on the CanSIPS is unprecedented with a Nino that strong. tough to say what'll happen this winter but I like what I'm seeing the forcing is really all that matters... in previous super Ninos, the forcing is much closer to 150W. I'm excluding 97-98 since it was SO east based. also including 1991-92 since it was basin-wide and peaked at 1.7C. 1991-92 is the best analog out of all years in the first composite. one of the best of all for this winter, IMO the CanSIPS (and last month's C3S, which is every seasonal in an ensemble) has it much closer to the dateline than those winters. the new CanSIPS is even west of those years! it's much more comparable to a composite of 09-10, 02-03, 86-87, and 57-58. weenie years, but still. those years are all viable analogs with forcing that looks like this

yeah that kind of forcing is unprecedented with a Nino that strong. tough to say what'll happen this winter but I like what I'm seeing the forcing is really all that matters... in previous super Ninos, the forcing is much closer to 150W. I'm excluding 97-98 since it was SO east based. also including 1991-92 since it was basin-wide and peaked at 1.7C. 1991-92 is the best analog out of all years in the first composite. one of the best of all for this winter, IMO the CanSIPS (and last month's C3S, which is every seasonal in an ensemble) has it much closer to the dateline than those winters. the new CanSIPS is even west of those years! it's much more comparable to a composite of 09-10, 02-03, 86-87, and 57-58. weenie years, but still. those years are all viable analogs with forcing that looks like this

interesting thing is that the CanSIPS did increase the strength of the Nino considerably to just barely super, but it doesn't matter since the forcing is so west based. we basically get Modoki forcing with a basin-wide Nino. kinda wild

09-10 redux lmao

the odd thing about this winter is that the forcing may still be displaced west of its normal strong to super Nino position due to the WPAC warm pool, leading to a traditional Aleutian low and +PNA/-EPO with a strong STJ cutting underneath will the forcing actually end up there? not sure, but it makes sense for that warm pool to drag things west. we’ve been seeing it already this summer

also, I have literally said that years like 1982 and 1991 are a possibility, so leave the weenie accusations on the table. i am well aware of those possible outcomes

@snowman19 you breathlessly reposted some tweet that the CanSIPS had a super Nino (first time you’ve posted about it too, wonder why) and now that it looks good for the winter you’re annoyed and weenie-ing every post about it lmao something tells me you were expecting it to look worse

if we’re speaking verbatim, the SE US has a pretty pronounced cold anomaly for Jan-Mar, Feb especially

like i wonder where the storm track is here lmao

with above average precip. it's a sick run and it could actually happen if the forcing occurs there. the C3S superensemble hinted at the same thing in the July update

hi. so the CanSIPS now has a super Nino hovering just at 2C, but it's actually a good thing. the forcing is still over the dateline and is stronger, so the blocking and overall +PNA/-NAO pattern is amplified. it's pretty sick looking years like 1972 and 1991 are still in the cards, but this is very encouraging now that we're into August. that WPAC warm pool might be a big help. could give us Modoki-like forcing with a basin-wide event

although the new CanSIPS is stronger and pushes into super Nino territory, the forcing is stronger and remains along the dateline. just juices the STJ further and strengthens the blocking. this would basically be a Modoki on steroids thanks to the WPAC warm pool. although years like 1972 and 1991 are in the cards, this remains highly encouraging

down for a super Nino if it looks like this. holy shit

yeah Saturday looks like no joke either as the vort rounds the ridge... that is a lot of shear. on the GFS, no less. NAM has a Dixie Alley hodo haha

tomorrow looks really legit for parts of NE. everything is there for potentially significant tornadoes into MA and even into CT / RI... good forcing from the S/W passing to the north, notable LLJ with strong speed and directional shear, 0-1 SRH over 200, 3CAPE over 100, very low LCLs, and more than enough CAPE with these dynamics. you don't get these setups too often around here during mid-summer favoring damaging wind with more dry air aloft once into the HV / NNJ, but still nasty

1.76 in OND. seems about right

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/