brooklynwx99

that does NOT look like a classic EB Nino. no idea what he’s talking about

i’m not even sure what he’s getting on about here… the Nino becomes basin wide on the C3S and forcing remains near the dateline. this would work well once into Jan and Feb. weird tweet

Webb’s tweet is dumb. no idea what he’s complaining about here… deep trough by Jan with forcing a tick east of the dateline. this will work

not sure what Webb is even talking about. i’m praying this verifies. deep trough once into Jan with forcing near the dateline? sign me up

so we can look at the modeled SST anomalies at 8 months out all we want, but we can't look at the modeled forcing, which is the thing that actually influences the pattern? why is that

this wasn't posted for some reason... lmao

yeah there was great blocking in Dec and Mar... the Dec blocking was picked up quite well by analogs just got ruined by a mix of awful luck and an insane -PNA. this year should not feature that -PNA, so blocking will be far more beneficial combined with the STJ I'm pretty confident in blocking given the Nino state as well as the -QBO

no they don’t way better than it looked last year. last year looked like shit and boy did it deliver

sorry it doesn’t live up to your lofty expectations

i don’t think it’s disingenuous at all. it hasn’t behaved like one in the past whatsoever. why would it later on? perhaps, but I’m not banking on that and it’s not for no reason. every other super Nino had that SST dipole with colder water in the WPAC. this one doesn’t, and it will have an impact

ECMWF looks great too

idk, you can use the MEI instead to show that this Nino isn’t going to have the same bite as other Ninos in the past with that WPAC warm pool in place. this one isn’t even close to past super Ninos. it makes sense given the weaker gradient and weaker circulations not sure why that’s even being argued in this thread

i’m sure it has the more central based forcing that the CanSIPS has. they both look very similar in terms of the 500mb presentation again, the WPAC warm pool could be playing a part there. can’t think of a another explanation for that

it means next to nothing at this point in the year. even the CanSIPS still has a highly-east based Nino for this month

yeah i get that. i just don’t really factor that in as much as other variables

“will” is a bit of an overstatement. i’m still favoring strong, and even if it does get to 2-2.1C, the RONI would likely be around 1.7, keeping the effects more strong than super anyway

there is going to be strong Nino forcing here. not concerned about anything Nina-related. no need

yeah we should see everything drift westward over the next month or two. this is a good start

and as we know, the difference between a high-end moderate and near super Nino are pretty profound even disregarding forcing I initially thought that the more moderate Modoki-esque years like 1986, 2002, and 2009 were completely useless. at this point, when looking at the lower RONI and possible west-based forcing, those years now need to be seriously considered. 2009 is actually a great analog when looking at QBO, PDO, and the summer pattern so far, surprisingly enough. with that being said, years like 1991 and 1982 still remain on the table. 1991 is also a great analog this could be a scenario where due to the WPAC warm pool, a 2C basin-wide super Nino could have the same effects as a 1.5C Modoki or close to it. I think this is what some models are trying to point out. we just don't know. pretty fascinating

not sure. this is for the fall... the dateline forcing becomes dominant and the forcing in the EPAC moves into the Gulf by winter

the forcing on the CanSIPS is unprecedented with a Nino that strong. tough to say what'll happen this winter but I like what I'm seeing the forcing is really all that matters... in previous super Ninos, the forcing is much closer to 150W. I'm excluding 97-98 since it was SO east based. also including 1991-92 since it was basin-wide and peaked at 1.7C. 1991-92 is the best analog out of all years in the first composite. one of the best of all for this winter, IMO the CanSIPS (and last month's C3S, which is every seasonal in an ensemble) has it much closer to the dateline than those winters. the new CanSIPS is even west of those years! it's much more comparable to a composite of 09-10, 02-03, 86-87, and 57-58. weenie years, but still. those years are all viable analogs with forcing that looks like this

yeah that kind of forcing is unprecedented with a Nino that strong. tough to say what'll happen this winter but I like what I'm seeing the forcing is really all that matters... in previous super Ninos, the forcing is much closer to 150W. I'm excluding 97-98 since it was SO east based. also including 1991-92 since it was basin-wide and peaked at 1.7C. 1991-92 is the best analog out of all years in the first composite. one of the best of all for this winter, IMO the CanSIPS (and last month's C3S, which is every seasonal in an ensemble) has it much closer to the dateline than those winters. the new CanSIPS is even west of those years! it's much more comparable to a composite of 09-10, 02-03, 86-87, and 57-58. weenie years, but still. those years are all viable analogs with forcing that looks like this

interesting thing is that the CanSIPS did increase the strength of the Nino considerably to just barely super, but it doesn't matter since the forcing is so west based. we basically get Modoki forcing with a basin-wide Nino. kinda wild

09-10 redux lmao