brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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it’s probably a down cycle with some CC sprinkled in there -
as long as the PNA just remains neutral, blocking will be a thousand times more effective than it was last year
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overall, I can see the winter ending ip slightly warmer than average, but I expect February to be cold. it shows a typical back loaded winter… a Dec torch will offset the later cold departures
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well, that’s one of the reasons i’m a bit weenie-ish here. i forecast for a living and i need to pull in the reins at work so I let it out more here
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sorry, but with all due respect, i’m not sure if you can really comment on a pretty well-respected forecaster’s track record and talk about how horrible it is when for the last few years you’d talk about how every shortwave hitting the atlantic would turn into a historic Boston blizzard
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people are going to be shitting themselves in December. I can see it already
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I get this for Feb when I run mine through the wringer. pretty solidly AN 10mb heights
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yeah that's a sign that it's picking up on a ton of activity there
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it's also picking up on the stronger forcing near the dateline for September that the global ensembles are seeing... this is a good sign
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Nino is a touch weaker and the forcing ticked west, if anything
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CanSIPS still looks great! about what I would expect. a crappy start, a transition into a better pattern in Jan, then the hammer comes down once into February and March I am expecting December to torch, by the way. analogs are hinting pretty strongly at it
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yup. we're getting to the point where the seasonals are going to get the general flavor of the winter correct... sure, they might be a bit off, of course, but they usually don't completely flop at this point. the CanSIPS had this for last winter at this point, and it got it right generally
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not sure yet. it's going to come out on TT this evening
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this will do just that
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nah it's just loaded all the way through. I expect December to be on the warmer side though this is also the MSLP anomaly... the 500mb will be different but should still show a potent -NAO
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loaded
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you guys are going to like this
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new CanSIPS has pronounced blocking. wow that's the DJF mean, too. Feb probably looks insane
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I mean, that's not really a conclusion... it's a fact that it is far behind every single super event in terms of coupling. where it goes is tough to say, but it's clear that this is not like any of those years
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like IF this does indeed peak at a monthly ONI average of 2.0, this would likely have an MEI around 1.5, acting much more like a high-end moderate to low-end strong event rather than a canonical super event ala 1997, 1982, or 1972 2016's ONI peaked at 2.6, but its MEI only peaked at 2.1... this difference, along with the western lean in the forcing allowed for the weeks-long favorable pattern that culminated in a HECS. I don't see why it would be that much different this time
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this right here is why I can't understand why people are saying that this is acting like a Super Nino. it's so far behind everything else... I mean it's well behind 1986-87, which was a moderate event. it's much closer to 2002, 2004, 2009, and 2014 than any of these winters
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it’s because the categories are based off a three-month averaged ONI and again, this is actually acting like a low-end moderate event when looking at MEI/RONI anyway
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I just don't really know how this is behaving like a classical super Nino when the MEI and forcing thus far (aside from a blip in August) have been acting like moderate Ninos, if anything. the only thing that reminds me of one is the raw SST anomalies and not how the atmosphere is acting (no strong WWBs early on, low MEI compared to past strong-super Ninos, forcing largely west). it just seems reductive
