brooklynwx99

yup. we're getting to the point where the seasonals are going to get the general flavor of the winter correct... sure, they might be a bit off, of course, but they usually don't completely flop at this point. the CanSIPS had this for last winter at this point, and it got it right generally

not sure yet. it's going to come out on TT this evening

this will do just that

nah it's just loaded all the way through. I expect December to be on the warmer side though this is also the MSLP anomaly... the 500mb will be different but should still show a potent -NAO

loaded

you guys are going to like this

new CanSIPS has pronounced blocking. wow that's the DJF mean, too. Feb probably looks insane

I mean, that's not really a conclusion... it's a fact that it is far behind every single super event in terms of coupling. where it goes is tough to say, but it's clear that this is not like any of those years

like IF this does indeed peak at a monthly ONI average of 2.0, this would likely have an MEI around 1.5, acting much more like a high-end moderate to low-end strong event rather than a canonical super event ala 1997, 1982, or 1972 2016's ONI peaked at 2.6, but its MEI only peaked at 2.1... this difference, along with the western lean in the forcing allowed for the weeks-long favorable pattern that culminated in a HECS. I don't see why it would be that much different this time

this right here is why I can't understand why people are saying that this is acting like a Super Nino. it's so far behind everything else... I mean it's well behind 1986-87, which was a moderate event. it's much closer to 2002, 2004, 2009, and 2014 than any of these winters

it’s because the categories are based off a three-month averaged ONI and again, this is actually acting like a low-end moderate event when looking at MEI/RONI anyway

I just don't really know how this is behaving like a classical super Nino when the MEI and forcing thus far (aside from a blip in August) have been acting like moderate Ninos, if anything. the only thing that reminds me of one is the raw SST anomalies and not how the atmosphere is acting (no strong WWBs early on, low MEI compared to past strong-super Ninos, forcing largely west). it just seems reductive

hey, usually I like to bring good news to people. if there's a torch period for a couple weeks I usually just make a post like "hey this looks like shit for two weeks, see you then" and check out until things get interesting lmao

this makes sense given the potential MJO pulse over the MC as well

luckily, this looks rather temporary. strong forcing near the dateline likely resumes by next week. all ensembles agree on this, not just the EPS

the jury is out on solar. some papers attribute ascending solar to a -NAO and some don’t. i think the -QBO and strong Nino state are going to have a bigger impact comparatively

I mean, hell, 2015-16 had a month where it acted like a Modoki event and there was a HECS out of it. I can bet money the MEI was way higher there than it'll be this year

@George001 they just aren't the same. most of the vapor went into the ocean, not the atmosphere, while Pinatubo had most of its SO2 go far into the atmosphere

the Pinatubo eruption was much stronger and in the NH, shooting SO2 into the atmosphere... this one is weaker, in the SH, and shot water vapor into the atmosphere. they're different the -QBO favors blocking, the strong Nino itself favors blocking, and solar research is out. some say the ascending solar favors blocking, some say it doesn't. but overall, solar and the eruption are dubious at best, and the -QBO and Nino are known to be blockier so to say that a strongly positive +NAO is favored is a bit much

yeah, but when looking at variables like the ONI and forcing, they’re actually not as far off as you’d think. that’s the point some of us have been making honestly, 2009 is also a great QBO and summer pattern match. not expecting a winter like that, but it’s a solid analog

it’s just odd since those are such banner weenie years… but if the shoe fits

yeah it's definitely encouraging. still want to wait until October but I like what I'm seeing

looking at the projected forcing for the start of September, we're seeing the forcing displaced far west towards the dateline or even west of it! this is much farther west than 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972. 1972 is perhaps the closest, but it's still too far east overall in fact, the forcing thus far is much more comparable to 2009, 2002, and 1963, with the core near the dateline as opposed to between 140-160W. 2002 is extremely similar. IMO there is no need to heavily rely on the classical EP Ninos when it's abundantly clear that this event isn't acting like one

if this ends up basin wide with the forcing still leaning west as it's been doing all summer, we're probably in business very curious to see what the CanSIPS spits out on Friday

I'm happy that this is actually becoming a basin wide event. was worried about that a few weeks ago