brooklynwx99

it's moving up in time and the jet is going to retract. it seems legit

might be able to pop some confluence out ahead of the S/W like the 18z GFS OP does. would make sense given that HP is favored downstream of a ridge like that afterwards, the GEFS seems to have pretty much caved to the EPS in the longer range. -EPO, neutral NAO, temps are cold enough, and there's also split flow. nice pattern there

i mean, this is a gorgeous look on the GEFS still. strong ridge into northern Canada, -EPO forming, NAO trending neutral, and split flow. very active and more than cold enough

that's not Pacific air. the source region is out of northern Canada

just for funsies, this is heading into Feb. god damn

that split flow, -EPO, and BN heights near the 50/50 region is drool worthy

the temp anomalies in Canada are a bit overrated IMO. look at Feb 2022. Canada was an icebox, but it didn't matter because the 500mb pattern sucked and the mean storm track was to the west. I would much rather have an above normal Canada if the 500mb pattern leads to coastal storms

based on how strongly you feel about the lack of Arctic air in Canada, yes, I would believe that you'd find it harder for us to snow. I don't think that's a stretch

also that's a bit of a strawman. who is advocating for Arctic cold? I haven't seen anyone say that

we don't need Arctic air to snow... you just need near normal, and ensembles have us near or below normal by the end of the month. Canada can be +10 and it doesn't really matter for our intents and purposes down here

luckily I think the "winning again" looks like it'll occur around the end of the month. ENS are keying in on a nice pattern as the jet retracts

really nice trend with the Pacific jet too. less oppressive and is leading to more ridging into western Canada

yeah, but the point that @ORH_wxman is trying to make is that that's not how persistence forecasting even really works persistence forecasting implies that the pattern is persistent. the persistence isn't coming from a lack of snow (or wealth of snow)

yes. 8 or 9 times out of 10 you get something with this kind of pattern. got unlucky

this is pretty clear cut

talk about being hostile lmao

this pattern is about as far from last year's at it can possibly be. persistence doesn't really make any sense here

just a parade of coastals

i love how it’s always what I post as if: 1) others don’t post the same stuff. other well respected mets, too! and 2) as if any of us have control over the weather anyway

getting bump trolled by a five-posted poster facepalming because I'm using long range ensembles over OP runs. we are in the fucking sunken place

anecdotal. every single meteorology class in the country that teaches medium and long range forecasting stresses the importance of ensembles if you're arguing that OP runs are more skillful than ensembles at range, every meteorologist here would disagree. it's just wrong

and yeah the EPS looks great. hopefully it has a clue

so now we're taking LR OP runs over their respective ensemble means? why?

you don't really need massive changes. you just need the jet to relax... that should occur

favorable after NYE? probably like 6 or 7/10. would probably last through mid-month before a relaxation as the MJO wave moving through the more favorable phases craps out. even if it's not super favorable, which is possible if the jet remains on steroids for some reason (nothing shows this) I highly doubt it'll be as crappy as the pattern now. the jet shouldn't be as strong it's not a lock or anything but I think that once the jet relaxes, which it will, heights recover into AK and we get a much better source region