brooklynwx99

I don't really think the PDO is going to be a major factor this year. if so, maybe early on in December when it's usually warm anyway the PDO is really a factor when it constructively interferes with ENSO... so a -PDO with a La Nina is a death knell because it reenforces the Aleutian HP and -PNA, and vice versa. the El Nino and Aleutian LP likely overwhelm the PDO once we get into late Jan and Feb also, the PDO is prone to large swings, and it should rise pretty quickly. hell, the PDO was -2.2 in Dec 1994 and sharply rose to near 0 in Feb 1995

I have absolutely no idea; that is the wildcard for me. I would hope that models take that into account? but again, I don't really know and I don't really think that 1986/2002 are amazing analogs or anything like that... I just think that we could see some Modoki-esque stretches as we head later into winter. hell, even 2016 had that in January

I don't really see straight BN anomalies for DJF anywhere outside of the SE/SW US. however, I think late Jan into Feb has the potential to be legitimately cold and stormy. will that offset a very warm Dec and early Jan? probably not

i mean, in terms of raw SSTs, this is indeed an EP Nino. those often become basin-wide sans years like 1997 and 1982. I prefer to use the term basin-wide to avoid confusion since we're not writing research papers here regardless of raw SSTs, this Nino continues to not really behave like it should. not really sure how to feel about it, but it seems to be more optimistic than pessimistic given that a year like 2009 shares so many similarities

the new C3S moved the forcing even farther west than the past run to just a tick E of the dateline. the overall forcing later in the winter is much more reminiscent of the CP Nino winters of 1986, 2002, and 2009 rather than the EP super Nino winters of 1972, 1982, 1997, and 2015

I also doubt we'll see a super Nino at all this year, at least in terms of three consecutive averaged ONI > +2C. 3.4 took a pretty big plunge this past month and has stagnated. there isn't much in the way of strong MJO pulses or anomalous WWBs to really kick this into gear... a peak ONI of 1.6-1.9 seems reasonable at this point given slow, steady strengthening throughout the next couple of months. MEI likely peaks somewhere in the 1.1-1.4C range

here is a composite of velocity potential from 1972, 1982, 1997, and 2015 from 10/22-26 compared to the EPS (GEFS and GEPS are near-identical) forecasted 7-day mean VP. it's clear that we're likely going to see forcing remain significantly farther west of those classical super EP Ninos, likely due to the extremely warm WPAC and lingering La Nina base state 2009 still seems to be one of the better analogs in terms of forcing this year. the similarities in forcing between this year and 2009 are pretty uncanny it also seems to stay that way, as the main -VP anomaly is likely going to be centered in the same spot as that year to close the month out. same strength and all

this is why seasonal models aren't great with temps. there isn't just going to be a sea of warmth... the coldest areas will get cold, not just remain near normal. everything gets washed out

if I hear the name Paul Roundy one more time

looks like super is off the table, so that's pretty good. I'm more worried about it not coupling effectively rather than it being a Pacific blowtorch

I also doubt we see the typical super Nino torch outcome at this point. solidly strong events often don't have the same blowtorch effect as years like 1997 or 2015. this year might be most similar in strength to 2009, which peaked at +1.6, or 1991, which peaked at +1.7

same. I think I went with +1.7-1.9 a few weeks ago which is proving to be too aggressive. thinking +1.5-1.7 now. almost no way we see even one trimonthly period at +2.0 at this point

i mean, it's one run of one model, and the end of winter still looks pretty great with split flow and a general -NAO, so I wouldn't get too worked up

either way, the seasonal still echoes my main thoughts... warm Dec, transitional Jan, and a favorable Feb

it's a bit odd. it looks less El Nino-ish than the last run. if this winter is going to go bad, I'd expect an Aleutian low that's too far east, not the lack of one

yeah literally. would be screaming from the rooftops if this was Jan 4 instead of Oct 4

there is an increased risk for a larger storm next week as the deep trough this weekend leads to the development of a potent west-based -NAO block. the block decays and the GoA trough pumps a +PNA ridge at the same time. this is not too dissimilar from the KU pattern evolutions we see in the winter, so the risk of a nor'easter is a good bit higher than normal

there is an increased risk for a larger storm next week as the deep trough this weekend leads to the development of a potent west-based -NAO block. the block decays and the GoA trough pumps a +PNA ridge at the same time. this is not too dissimilar from the pattern evolutions for NYC's largest winter storms, so the risk for a nor'easter is quite a bit higher than normal

it usually does rise when Ninos mature. it can also rise pretty rapidly... rose from -2.22 in Dec 1994 to +0.02 by Feb 1995 also, SSTs can help lead to positive feedback, but ENSO and tropical forcing will drive the bus. it's just that usually a -PDO positively feeds back on the -PNA caused by La Ninas and vice versa. here, we will likely have conflicting signals, but the +PNA from the Nino should win out on the mean

PDO should rebound pretty quickly once into November / December. not expecting positive, but somewhere in the -0.75 to +0.25 range by then

like honestly, I know this is a seasonal model, but I can't really look at this and be like "damn, winter is gonna suck"

so much of the ENSO stuff this year has been pretty reductive. I think some that are just looking at raw SSTs are going to get caught with their pants down

honestly i don't care about what he says about winter after talking about 70 degree temps coming up on modeling as Boston is getting 2 feet of snow in late Jan 2022

I'm not worried about this not coupling. I just think that there are going to be differences in forcing that'll give this winter more of a 1986-97/2009-10 flavor rather than a 1997-98 flavor. seasonals have been picking up on that persistently all summer (and now into fall with the CanSIPS). does that guarantee cold and snowy, no I don't even really expect a cold winter as a whole as December likely skews things warm. Feb is the only month I expect to be downright cold. I would be surprised if there wasn't one or two legit shots at a KU, though. even classic super Nino winters like 1972-73, 1982-83, and 2015-16 had massive storms

2009 is actually our best analog where i work. combining ENSO, QBO, PDO, and the summer pattern, it matches up better than most