Jump to content

brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
  • Posts

    5,637
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. it's a bit odd. it looks less El Nino-ish than the last run. if this winter is going to go bad, I'd expect an Aleutian low that's too far east, not the lack of one
  2. yeah literally. would be screaming from the rooftops if this was Jan 4 instead of Oct 4
  3. there is an increased risk for a larger storm next week as the deep trough this weekend leads to the development of a potent west-based -NAO block. the block decays and the GoA trough pumps a +PNA ridge at the same time. this is not too dissimilar from the KU pattern evolutions we see in the winter, so the risk of a nor'easter is a good bit higher than normal
  4. there is an increased risk for a larger storm next week as the deep trough this weekend leads to the development of a potent west-based -NAO block. the block decays and the GoA trough pumps a +PNA ridge at the same time. this is not too dissimilar from the pattern evolutions for NYC's largest winter storms, so the risk for a nor'easter is quite a bit higher than normal
  5. it usually does rise when Ninos mature. it can also rise pretty rapidly... rose from -2.22 in Dec 1994 to +0.02 by Feb 1995 also, SSTs can help lead to positive feedback, but ENSO and tropical forcing will drive the bus. it's just that usually a -PDO positively feeds back on the -PNA caused by La Ninas and vice versa. here, we will likely have conflicting signals, but the +PNA from the Nino should win out on the mean
  6. PDO should rebound pretty quickly once into November / December. not expecting positive, but somewhere in the -0.75 to +0.25 range by then
  7. like honestly, I know this is a seasonal model, but I can't really look at this and be like "damn, winter is gonna suck"
  8. so much of the ENSO stuff this year has been pretty reductive. I think some that are just looking at raw SSTs are going to get caught with their pants down
  9. honestly i don't care about what he says about winter after talking about 70 degree temps coming up on modeling as Boston is getting 2 feet of snow in late Jan 2022
  10. I'm not worried about this not coupling. I just think that there are going to be differences in forcing that'll give this winter more of a 1986-97/2009-10 flavor rather than a 1997-98 flavor. seasonals have been picking up on that persistently all summer (and now into fall with the CanSIPS). does that guarantee cold and snowy, no I don't even really expect a cold winter as a whole as December likely skews things warm. Feb is the only month I expect to be downright cold. I would be surprised if there wasn't one or two legit shots at a KU, though. even classic super Nino winters like 1972-73, 1982-83, and 2015-16 had massive storms
  11. 2009 is actually our best analog where i work. combining ENSO, QBO, PDO, and the summer pattern, it matches up better than most
  12. yeah people rooting for a good December are usually fooling themselves. anyone NYC south, anyway
  13. yup, seems consistent, which is all that matters. I don’t expect much from December so it seems like it’s catching on there finally
  14. GFS is pretty useless at this point, as with most globals. might as well stick with mesos at this range... this is like 12 hours out now
  15. NAM has 7-8" just E of TTN... still very significant. it's clear that this system is going to lead to major issues somewhere. NE NJ / Monmouth / NYC is favored, but it's still up in the air
  16. not saying it doesn't strengthen a bit further, but a trimonthly ONI peak over 2C seems quite unlikely. I mean, it's already October, so we're strapped for time here I'm still thinking we peak in the 1.6-1.9C range
  17. only thing is that's the BOM, which has been way too warm this whole summer. the ECMWF extended has little to no pulse throughout its run
×
×
  • Create New...