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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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it's a bit odd. it looks less El Nino-ish than the last run. if this winter is going to go bad, I'd expect an Aleutian low that's too far east, not the lack of one
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Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
yeah literally. would be screaming from the rooftops if this was Jan 4 instead of Oct 4 -
Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
there is an increased risk for a larger storm next week as the deep trough this weekend leads to the development of a potent west-based -NAO block. the block decays and the GoA trough pumps a +PNA ridge at the same time. this is not too dissimilar from the KU pattern evolutions we see in the winter, so the risk of a nor'easter is a good bit higher than normal -
there is an increased risk for a larger storm next week as the deep trough this weekend leads to the development of a potent west-based -NAO block. the block decays and the GoA trough pumps a +PNA ridge at the same time. this is not too dissimilar from the pattern evolutions for NYC's largest winter storms, so the risk for a nor'easter is quite a bit higher than normal
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it usually does rise when Ninos mature. it can also rise pretty rapidly... rose from -2.22 in Dec 1994 to +0.02 by Feb 1995 also, SSTs can help lead to positive feedback, but ENSO and tropical forcing will drive the bus. it's just that usually a -PDO positively feeds back on the -PNA caused by La Ninas and vice versa. here, we will likely have conflicting signals, but the +PNA from the Nino should win out on the mean
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PDO should rebound pretty quickly once into November / December. not expecting positive, but somewhere in the -0.75 to +0.25 range by then
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like honestly, I know this is a seasonal model, but I can't really look at this and be like "damn, winter is gonna suck"
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so much of the ENSO stuff this year has been pretty reductive. I think some that are just looking at raw SSTs are going to get caught with their pants down
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honestly i don't care about what he says about winter after talking about 70 degree temps coming up on modeling as Boston is getting 2 feet of snow in late Jan 2022
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I'm not worried about this not coupling. I just think that there are going to be differences in forcing that'll give this winter more of a 1986-97/2009-10 flavor rather than a 1997-98 flavor. seasonals have been picking up on that persistently all summer (and now into fall with the CanSIPS). does that guarantee cold and snowy, no I don't even really expect a cold winter as a whole as December likely skews things warm. Feb is the only month I expect to be downright cold. I would be surprised if there wasn't one or two legit shots at a KU, though. even classic super Nino winters like 1972-73, 1982-83, and 2015-16 had massive storms
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2009 is actually our best analog where i work. combining ENSO, QBO, PDO, and the summer pattern, it matches up better than most
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CanSIPS still looks amazing. even blockier for February
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yeah people rooting for a good December are usually fooling themselves. anyone NYC south, anyway
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yup, seems consistent, which is all that matters. I don’t expect much from December so it seems like it’s catching on there finally
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this is still going to cause major issues
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GFS is pretty useless at this point, as with most globals. might as well stick with mesos at this range... this is like 12 hours out now
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absolutely crushes the city. still way more to go
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the duality of man
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this output doesn't make much sense... the 26" max offshore hints at feedback problems
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NAM has 7-8" just E of TTN... still very significant. it's clear that this system is going to lead to major issues somewhere. NE NJ / Monmouth / NYC is favored, but it's still up in the air
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still really bad, just in a different spot than 12z. still going too
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not saying it doesn't strengthen a bit further, but a trimonthly ONI peak over 2C seems quite unlikely. I mean, it's already October, so we're strapped for time here I'm still thinking we peak in the 1.6-1.9C range
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PAUL ROUNDY SUPER NINO!!!!!
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only thing is that's the BOM, which has been way too warm this whole summer. the ECMWF extended has little to no pulse throughout its run