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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    i mean, it's one run of one model, and the end of winter still looks pretty great with split flow and a general -NAO, so I wouldn't get too worked up
  2. brooklynwx99
    either way, the seasonal still echoes my main thoughts... warm Dec, transitional Jan, and a favorable Feb
  3. brooklynwx99
    it's a bit odd. it looks less El Nino-ish than the last run. if this winter is going to go bad, I'd expect an Aleutian low that's too far east, not the lack of one
  4. brooklynwx99
    yeah literally. would be screaming from the rooftops if this was Jan 4 instead of Oct 4
  5. brooklynwx99
    there is an increased risk for a larger storm next week as the deep trough this weekend leads to the development of a potent west-based -NAO block. the block decays and the GoA trough pumps a +PNA ridge at the same time. this is not too dissimilar from the KU pattern evolutions we see in the winter, so the risk of a nor'easter is a good bit higher than normal
  6. brooklynwx99
    there is an increased risk for a larger storm next week as the deep trough this weekend leads to the development of a potent west-based -NAO block. the block decays and the GoA trough pumps a +PNA ridge at the same time. this is not too dissimilar from the pattern evolutions for NYC's largest winter storms, so the risk for a nor'easter is quite a bit higher than normal
  7. brooklynwx99
    it usually does rise when Ninos mature. it can also rise pretty rapidly... rose from -2.22 in Dec 1994 to +0.02 by Feb 1995 also, SSTs can help lead to positive feedback, but ENSO and tropical forcing will drive the bus. it's just that usually a -PDO positively feeds back on the -PNA caused by La Ninas and vice versa. here, we will likely have conflicting signals, but the +PNA from the Nino should win out on the mean
  8. brooklynwx99
    PDO should rebound pretty quickly once into November / December. not expecting positive, but somewhere in the -0.75 to +0.25 range by then
  9. brooklynwx99
    like honestly, I know this is a seasonal model, but I can't really look at this and be like "damn, winter is gonna suck"
  10. brooklynwx99
    so much of the ENSO stuff this year has been pretty reductive. I think some that are just looking at raw SSTs are going to get caught with their pants down
  11. brooklynwx99
    honestly i don't care about what he says about winter after talking about 70 degree temps coming up on modeling as Boston is getting 2 feet of snow in late Jan 2022
  12. brooklynwx99
    I'm not worried about this not coupling. I just think that there are going to be differences in forcing that'll give this winter more of a 1986-97/2009-10 flavor rather than a 1997-98 flavor. seasonals have been picking up on that persistently all summer (and now into fall with the CanSIPS). does that guarantee cold and snowy, no I don't even really expect a cold winter as a whole as December likely skews things warm. Feb is the only month I expect to be downright cold. I would be surprised if there wasn't one or two legit shots at a KU, though. even classic super Nino winters like 1972-73, 1982-83, and 2015-16 had massive storms
  13. brooklynwx99
    2009 is actually our best analog where i work. combining ENSO, QBO, PDO, and the summer pattern, it matches up better than most
  14. brooklynwx99
    CanSIPS still looks amazing. even blockier for February
  15. brooklynwx99
    yeah people rooting for a good December are usually fooling themselves. anyone NYC south, anyway
  16. brooklynwx99
    yup, seems consistent, which is all that matters. I don’t expect much from December so it seems like it’s catching on there finally
  17. brooklynwx99
    this is still going to cause major issues
  18. brooklynwx99
    GFS is pretty useless at this point, as with most globals. might as well stick with mesos at this range... this is like 12 hours out now
  19. brooklynwx99
    absolutely crushes the city. still way more to go
  20. brooklynwx99
    the duality of man
  21. brooklynwx99
    this output doesn't make much sense... the 26" max offshore hints at feedback problems
  22. brooklynwx99
    NAM has 7-8" just E of TTN... still very significant. it's clear that this system is going to lead to major issues somewhere. NE NJ / Monmouth / NYC is favored, but it's still up in the air
  23. brooklynwx99
    still really bad, just in a different spot than 12z. still going too
  24. brooklynwx99
    comical
  25. brooklynwx99
    not saying it doesn't strengthen a bit further, but a trimonthly ONI peak over 2C seems quite unlikely. I mean, it's already October, so we're strapped for time here I'm still thinking we peak in the 1.6-1.9C range
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