brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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oh man. I'm still expecting the Nino to couple... not really worried there but the "MEI is bullshit and you're just a weenie if you don't think this is going to act like 1997" stuff is so dated. no way this acts like its full ONI strength
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2009 is a pretty good analog regardless
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again, I don't understand the issue of the SW trough for December. most stronger Ninos feature this -PNA/+NAO pattern, so it should not be surprising. it is likely going to be a warm month
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i agree. i also think that seasonal models underdo cold anomalies in areas where there is a persistent trough. even last year, which was warm as hell, was very cold in the western US, and seasonals missed it even though they got the mean 500mb pattern pretty much correct
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i think that we haven't seen a true Nino in 8 years and people are forgetting how they function. crappy starts to the season are the status quo and there is a lot of hand wringing for no particular reason. I don't expect to see any significant La Nina influence at all once we get into January and especially February... if this winter is going to fail, it would be due to an overwhelming GoA low, not some Aleutian ridge dropping a deep trough over the western US
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why can’t you just have a reasonable take without going balls to the wall? i agree that Dec is likely +1-3, but why not just say that instead
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what’s your point? there are categories between super and weak. they’re called moderate and strong! knowledge is power
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lmao
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that is literally the only reason
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there is some lingering forcing in the western IO that may be influencing things. either way, this pattern still looks quite similar to El Ninos in the past with the +EPO and +NAO
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my point is that what's happening in November isn't representative of the deep winter pattern December is likely going to be crappy and meltdowns will begin, I'm pretty sure of it. same shit happened in 2015 when everyone was crying before Boston got 100" in 6 weeks
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the +EPO/+NAO pattern on the EPS matches up with most mod-strong Ninos... the hand wringing about this being the winter pattern by some is pretty ridiculous as Nov/Dec are usually quite warm here
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base period is 1993-2016
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this looks quite similar to phase 1 forcing that you'd see in Ninos, though. also looks close to typical Ninos with the +EPO and +NAO. i don't see a correlation with Ninas here
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I'm just asking because if he means one daily reading at +2.01C is super, then yes, this can certainly become super. everyone seems to have their own definition these days
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that just does not look like an overwhelming EP super Nino response. wonder why
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yeah it's basically Feb 2010 all over again. makes sense given what's been talked about ad nauseam in this thread
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by super, do you mean three consecutive trimonthly periods that average +2.0C or greater? just to be clear
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Winter 2023-2024
brooklynwx99 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
i know people will jump on this because it's JB, but this is all pretty reasonable honestly -
come on dude. that is a cold, stormy 500mb pattern
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who cares? Nino Decembers usually suck so this isn’t some grand insight like you think it is
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no, that’s the magic of it. that way he can say he was right if it does end up snowy
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i’ll take this 10/10 times
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yeah this is better in that regard for Jan. Feb is about the same but the trough in the east is deeper and there’s actually an Aleutian low
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ECMWF seasonal is pretty great for Jan/Feb
