brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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this is what i mean when I said that there isn't convincing anyone at this point. there's nothing you can show to get people off the canonical super Nino bandwagon if they're already on it. sunk cost fallacy i guess
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I agree that one single month might not tell the whole story, but this event has behaved differently in that department for pretty much the entire late summer and fall. it isn't just one month. the differences over South America are especially glaring
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so triggered lmao
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nothing says “strongly coupled” like interfering factors that have mostly flipped
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@griteater would have something to say about the polar regions looking unfavorable I am seeing more evidence for blocking than not. moderate to strong +ENSO events favor blocking. then factor in the -QBO and solar and it's pretty heavily favored to see periods of blocking this winter
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ENSO is a bigger factor than the PDO. there are times where ENSO and the PDO are out of phase, and this year seems like a good candidate. the PDO can positively or negatively feed back on the PNA... a La Nina and -PDO will positively feed back and produce a persistent -PNA and vice versa. the -PDO likely negatively feeds back on El Nino this year, but +PNA is still favored overall also what's occurring now doesn't have much bearing on the winter. November 2009 had the TPV sitting over AK
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yeah this isn't a scenario where a good December means that the Nino isn't taking hold... most Ninos that start well also end well. 2002 and 2009 are good examples
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not that i know of, but 200mb and 500mb are correlated well enough that it would pretty much look the same
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looks great to me. but Pac puke!!!!!
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this is conveniently left out for some reason. I was told by someone that the forcing can't be used month to month because of sub-monthly variability lmao there is no convincing anyone of these differences at this point
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no, no, this is obviously a classical, canonical, and even prototypical EP super Nino that is going to behave completely normally
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also, given that the -PDO may be messing with the MEI, the RONI is still about half a degree weaker than the ONI, and it's simpler and doesn't take as much into account. this event still isn't really acting like it should and that's ignoring the western lean to the forcing that we've seen for months. not sure why that's being conveniently ignored by a lot of people
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i ask what he's talking about but he probably can't post again today. lmao
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if this is "flooding the US with Pacific air," i have a bridge to sell you. what are you even talking about? the Aleutian low is backed way west
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Raindance is above such silly indices as the RONI and MEI. we are just plebeians compared to his vast sea of atmospheric knowledge
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PAUL ROUNDY SUPER NINO
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it could be the IOD. not sure what else would do it 1986-87 did the same sort of thing. it also came after 3 consecutive cold ENSO events
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oh man. I'm still expecting the Nino to couple... not really worried there but the "MEI is bullshit and you're just a weenie if you don't think this is going to act like 1997" stuff is so dated. no way this acts like its full ONI strength
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2009 is a pretty good analog regardless
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again, I don't understand the issue of the SW trough for December. most stronger Ninos feature this -PNA/+NAO pattern, so it should not be surprising. it is likely going to be a warm month
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i agree. i also think that seasonal models underdo cold anomalies in areas where there is a persistent trough. even last year, which was warm as hell, was very cold in the western US, and seasonals missed it even though they got the mean 500mb pattern pretty much correct
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i think that we haven't seen a true Nino in 8 years and people are forgetting how they function. crappy starts to the season are the status quo and there is a lot of hand wringing for no particular reason. I don't expect to see any significant La Nina influence at all once we get into January and especially February... if this winter is going to fail, it would be due to an overwhelming GoA low, not some Aleutian ridge dropping a deep trough over the western US
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why can’t you just have a reasonable take without going balls to the wall? i agree that Dec is likely +1-3, but why not just say that instead
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what’s your point? there are categories between super and weak. they’re called moderate and strong! knowledge is power
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lmao
