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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    CanSIPS still looks amazing. even blockier for February
  2. brooklynwx99
    yeah people rooting for a good December are usually fooling themselves. anyone NYC south, anyway
  3. brooklynwx99
    yup, seems consistent, which is all that matters. I don’t expect much from December so it seems like it’s catching on there finally
  4. brooklynwx99
    this is still going to cause major issues
  5. brooklynwx99
    GFS is pretty useless at this point, as with most globals. might as well stick with mesos at this range... this is like 12 hours out now
  6. brooklynwx99
    absolutely crushes the city. still way more to go
  7. brooklynwx99
    the duality of man
  8. brooklynwx99
    this output doesn't make much sense... the 26" max offshore hints at feedback problems
  9. brooklynwx99
    NAM has 7-8" just E of TTN... still very significant. it's clear that this system is going to lead to major issues somewhere. NE NJ / Monmouth / NYC is favored, but it's still up in the air
  10. brooklynwx99
    still really bad, just in a different spot than 12z. still going too
  11. brooklynwx99
    comical
  12. brooklynwx99
    not saying it doesn't strengthen a bit further, but a trimonthly ONI peak over 2C seems quite unlikely. I mean, it's already October, so we're strapped for time here I'm still thinking we peak in the 1.6-1.9C range
  13. brooklynwx99
    PAUL ROUNDY SUPER NINO!!!!!
  14. brooklynwx99
    only thing is that's the BOM, which has been way too warm this whole summer. the ECMWF extended has little to no pulse throughout its run
  15. brooklynwx99
    the PMM is still insane. can't remember the last time I saw a splotch of 7" like that
  16. brooklynwx99
    I don't even think this will get to super in terms of ONI... the Nino has stagnated over the last couple of days. the MEI continues to lag far behind in weak territory, which is a better representation of how the Nino is actually influencing the atmosphere. I don't anticipate canonical super Nino impacts even if we do get the three trimonthly ONIs of 2.0C
  17. brooklynwx99
    the PDO and PNA aren't always a perfect match... easier to get a -PDO/-PNA in a Nina and easier to get a +PDO/+PNA in a Nino, but there are deviations also, given how west-leaning the forcing has been so far, and considering we've seen significant cooling in Nino 1+2, the transition to a more basin-wide event has been occurring and should continue. the super east-based stuff doesn't really correspond to what we'll see this winter
  18. brooklynwx99
    Friday is concerning... persistent onshore flow leading to massive FGEN banding. as the banding pivots, it appears there is the potential for 2-4" amounts or greater, but who knows where the banding will set up. it's similar to a Norlun in that regard classic sloped FGEN with potent 700mb omega. kinda similar to something you'd see in the winter ENS and mesos are in agreement, and given the lead time of only two days, it appears like a significant flooding event is gaining traction
  19. brooklynwx99
    then 500mb from Dec-Feb:
  20. brooklynwx99
    regardless of the CanSIPS, the analogs that I put together (which are similar to those of my colleagues) have quite the warm Dec followed by a transitional Jan and pretty weenie Feb. so I wouldn't be worried if December wasn't great
  21. brooklynwx99
    I mean, if anything, we're likely going to see a EWB over the eastern Pacific in the short term, which likely leads to more cooling or at least stagnation. we're running out of time for this event to actually become super. I find a 2.0C event over three trimonthly periods hard to believe given it's already October
  22. brooklynwx99
    and nobody is saying that the forcing is impacting summer ground conditions. it’s comparing the upper level forcing from previous super events to the one now and realizing that things are different that has value, regardless of if you believe you’re just smarter than everyone else here
  23. brooklynwx99
    so you’re saying that this is acting like its ONI regardless of the weaker, west-skewed upper-level forcing that we’ve seen this far, which is reflected by variables like MEI? I can’t imagine it makes zero difference
  24. brooklynwx99
    in the same vein, when looking at the weak and moderate Ninos presented here (including 1986 in case the event ratchets up, 1986 was +1.2 by now), the forcing is a much better match compared to the classical super Ninos, especially when looking towards SA and the EP
  25. brooklynwx99
    in the same vein, when looking at the weak and moderate Ninos presented here (including 1986 in case the event ratchets up, 1986 was +1.2 by now), the forcing is a much better match compared to the classical super Ninos, especially when looking towards SA and the EP
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