brooklynwx99

the PMM is still insane. can't remember the last time I saw a splotch of 7" like that

I don't even think this will get to super in terms of ONI... the Nino has stagnated over the last couple of days. the MEI continues to lag far behind in weak territory, which is a better representation of how the Nino is actually influencing the atmosphere. I don't anticipate canonical super Nino impacts even if we do get the three trimonthly ONIs of 2.0C

the PDO and PNA aren't always a perfect match... easier to get a -PDO/-PNA in a Nina and easier to get a +PDO/+PNA in a Nino, but there are deviations also, given how west-leaning the forcing has been so far, and considering we've seen significant cooling in Nino 1+2, the transition to a more basin-wide event has been occurring and should continue. the super east-based stuff doesn't really correspond to what we'll see this winter

Friday is concerning... persistent onshore flow leading to massive FGEN banding. as the banding pivots, it appears there is the potential for 2-4" amounts or greater, but who knows where the banding will set up. it's similar to a Norlun in that regard classic sloped FGEN with potent 700mb omega. kinda similar to something you'd see in the winter ENS and mesos are in agreement, and given the lead time of only two days, it appears like a significant flooding event is gaining traction

then 500mb from Dec-Feb:

regardless of the CanSIPS, the analogs that I put together (which are similar to those of my colleagues) have quite the warm Dec followed by a transitional Jan and pretty weenie Feb. so I wouldn't be worried if December wasn't great

I mean, if anything, we're likely going to see a EWB over the eastern Pacific in the short term, which likely leads to more cooling or at least stagnation. we're running out of time for this event to actually become super. I find a 2.0C event over three trimonthly periods hard to believe given it's already October

and nobody is saying that the forcing is impacting summer ground conditions. it’s comparing the upper level forcing from previous super events to the one now and realizing that things are different that has value, regardless of if you believe you’re just smarter than everyone else here

so you’re saying that this is acting like its ONI regardless of the weaker, west-skewed upper-level forcing that we’ve seen this far, which is reflected by variables like MEI? I can’t imagine it makes zero difference

in the same vein, when looking at the weak and moderate Ninos presented here (including 1986 in case the event ratchets up, 1986 was +1.2 by now), the forcing is a much better match compared to the classical super Ninos, especially when looking towards SA and the EP

in the same vein, when looking at the weak and moderate Ninos presented here (including 1986 in case the event ratchets up, 1986 was +1.2 by now), the forcing is a much better match compared to the classical super Ninos, especially when looking towards SA and the EP

it's subtracting the global mean temperature. it's not the raw SSTs

nothing says "classic EP Nino" like a persistent black hole of subsidence over South America and the eastern Pacific!

nothing says "classic EP Nino" like a persistent black hole of subsidence over South America and the eastern Pacific!

the satellite era began in the 60s. not sure why that's relevant given the four major super Nino events were from 1972 onward

not sure what about this ENSO event has been "classic." very little has gone to plan with this event in terms of actual atmospheric forcing, and that still remains the case. just compare the MEI values for the previous super Ninos at this time to the present JA value... 1972: +1.8C 1982: +1.9C 1997: +2.3C 2015: +1.9C 2023: +0.4C if you're telling me that won't make any kind of difference, I find that very hard to believe. those super Nino years are 5-6 times stronger in terms of MEI, and MEI attempts to determine how well the SSTs and the atmosphere are actually connected. I'm not sure how one could see this and be like "yeah, this is a classical east based event" when there is nothing classical about this given how it's coupling with the atmosphere this year remains more similar to the weak and moderate events in terms of MEI: 2009: +0.5C 2006: +0.6C 2004: +0.7C 2002: +0.8C 1994: +0.9C I expect the MEI to top out somewhere in the 1.0-1.4C range... can't see how it gets much higher than that. and yes, the MEI will make Ninas stronger, similar to last year, and we will have to use it all the same. I don't even necessarily expect a snowy winter here or anything. I just think that this isn't going to play out like a typical EP Nino torch, and the modeling has been pretty steadfast in that

and again, not sure what about this ENSO event has been "classic." very little has gone to plan with this event in terms of actual atmospheric forcing, and that still remains the case. just compare the MEI values for the previous super Ninos at this time to the present JA value... 1972: +1.8C 1982: +1.9C 1997: +2.3C 2015: +1.9C 2023: +0.4C if you're telling me that won't make any kind of difference, I find that very hard to believe. those super Nino years are 5-6 times stronger in terms of MEI, and MEI attempts to determine how well the SSTs and the atmosphere are actually connected. I'm not sure how one could see this and be like "yeah, this is a classical east based event" when there is nothing classical about this given how it's coupling with the atmosphere this year remains more similar to the weak and moderate events in terms of MEI: 2009: +0.5C 2006: +0.6C 2004: +0.7C 2002: +0.8C 1994: +0.9C I expect the MEI to top out somewhere in the 1.0-1.4C range... can't see how it gets much higher than that. and yes, the MEI will make Ninas stronger, similar to last year, and we will have to use it all the same. I don't even necessarily expect a snowy winter here or anything. I just think that this isn't going to play out like a typical EP Nino torch, and the modeling has been pretty steadfast in that

of course, no nuance ever exists on places like Twitter... it's either the second coming of 2009 or an unabated torch like 1997. drives more clicks, so I can't even blame them

once we get into the winter, this likely becomes a basin-wide event with a configuration more similar to 2015-16... there is a middle ground between a super east-based event like 1997 and a Modoki event like 2009

regardless of raw SSTs, when looking at factors like MEI, this event still pales in comparison to classical EP super Ninos. VP has also not really followed those events, nor have traditional factors like strong WWBs not to say it’s going to be particularly cold/snowy or anything, but I can’t imagine it’s a coincidence that that’s the case. Webb is being a tad reductive IMO

the CFS is just so bad. even the averaged plots on TT flip from week to week

it's worth noting that ENSO effects don't really get going until late fall into winter anyway, so us seeing some Nina-like patterns in October and early November doesn't really say much about the potential character of the winter I mean, the CanSIPS has a modoki-esque Feb pattern with an Aleutian ridge in October

all that he’s saying is that it could lead to a difference in what we usually see… +ENSO/-QBO still favors blocking regardless

a -NAO/-PNA is actually the main way the big dogs occur historically... you generally want that set of teleconnections, given the -PNA isn't overwhelming

we should see the MEI poke into the +1.0 - 1.4 range at some point in the next few months. this Nino is still going to strengthen a bit