brooklynwx99

if I hear the name Paul Roundy one more time

looks like super is off the table, so that's pretty good. I'm more worried about it not coupling effectively rather than it being a Pacific blowtorch

I also doubt we see the typical super Nino torch outcome at this point. solidly strong events often don't have the same blowtorch effect as years like 1997 or 2015. this year might be most similar in strength to 2009, which peaked at +1.6, or 1991, which peaked at +1.7

same. I think I went with +1.7-1.9 a few weeks ago which is proving to be too aggressive. thinking +1.5-1.7 now. almost no way we see even one trimonthly period at +2.0 at this point

i mean, it's one run of one model, and the end of winter still looks pretty great with split flow and a general -NAO, so I wouldn't get too worked up

either way, the seasonal still echoes my main thoughts... warm Dec, transitional Jan, and a favorable Feb

it's a bit odd. it looks less El Nino-ish than the last run. if this winter is going to go bad, I'd expect an Aleutian low that's too far east, not the lack of one

yeah literally. would be screaming from the rooftops if this was Jan 4 instead of Oct 4

there is an increased risk for a larger storm next week as the deep trough this weekend leads to the development of a potent west-based -NAO block. the block decays and the GoA trough pumps a +PNA ridge at the same time. this is not too dissimilar from the KU pattern evolutions we see in the winter, so the risk of a nor'easter is a good bit higher than normal

there is an increased risk for a larger storm next week as the deep trough this weekend leads to the development of a potent west-based -NAO block. the block decays and the GoA trough pumps a +PNA ridge at the same time. this is not too dissimilar from the pattern evolutions for NYC's largest winter storms, so the risk for a nor'easter is quite a bit higher than normal

it usually does rise when Ninos mature. it can also rise pretty rapidly... rose from -2.22 in Dec 1994 to +0.02 by Feb 1995 also, SSTs can help lead to positive feedback, but ENSO and tropical forcing will drive the bus. it's just that usually a -PDO positively feeds back on the -PNA caused by La Ninas and vice versa. here, we will likely have conflicting signals, but the +PNA from the Nino should win out on the mean

PDO should rebound pretty quickly once into November / December. not expecting positive, but somewhere in the -0.75 to +0.25 range by then

like honestly, I know this is a seasonal model, but I can't really look at this and be like "damn, winter is gonna suck"

so much of the ENSO stuff this year has been pretty reductive. I think some that are just looking at raw SSTs are going to get caught with their pants down

honestly i don't care about what he says about winter after talking about 70 degree temps coming up on modeling as Boston is getting 2 feet of snow in late Jan 2022

I'm not worried about this not coupling. I just think that there are going to be differences in forcing that'll give this winter more of a 1986-97/2009-10 flavor rather than a 1997-98 flavor. seasonals have been picking up on that persistently all summer (and now into fall with the CanSIPS). does that guarantee cold and snowy, no I don't even really expect a cold winter as a whole as December likely skews things warm. Feb is the only month I expect to be downright cold. I would be surprised if there wasn't one or two legit shots at a KU, though. even classic super Nino winters like 1972-73, 1982-83, and 2015-16 had massive storms

2009 is actually our best analog where i work. combining ENSO, QBO, PDO, and the summer pattern, it matches up better than most

CanSIPS still looks amazing. even blockier for February

yeah people rooting for a good December are usually fooling themselves. anyone NYC south, anyway

yup, seems consistent, which is all that matters. I don’t expect much from December so it seems like it’s catching on there finally

this is still going to cause major issues

GFS is pretty useless at this point, as with most globals. might as well stick with mesos at this range... this is like 12 hours out now

absolutely crushes the city. still way more to go

the duality of man

this output doesn't make much sense... the 26" max offshore hints at feedback problems