brooklynwx99

the shift towards a basin-wide event continues. seasonals have nailed that evolution

the thing is that per MEI, the atmospheric response has never mimicked any of the last super Ninos at any point in the spring or summer. there has never been a strong WWB in the western Pacific either, as all of those years had although ONI is moderate to near strong, this is still acting like a weak event (likely acting like a moderate to low-end strong one for the winter) and the models are showing that. it's not that far-farfetched once you throw out the raw ONI and look at how things are actually behaving

there is pretty much no way this will act like a canonical super Nino at this point. that ship seems to be sailing away by the week

the new MEI for Jul-Aug is only +0.4! no wonder the seasonal guidance is showing a pattern that's more associated with a moderate event https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ I expect the MEI to peak somewhere in the +1.0-1.5 range at this point, probably by Nov-Dec. it'll be enough to couple... a winter like 2018-19 is the least of my concerns right now

wow is right. I'm hoping it has the right idea

I mean, these are my JFM analogs... like it's very similar. slightly more assertive Aleutian low in mine since 1972, 1982, and 2016 are factored in there, but the main gist is there. back the Aleutian low up a tad and it's the same also my analogs are based on ONI/MEI, PDO, QBO, and summer 500mb/SST similarity. the models do not get factored into my forecast whatsoever

the plot that griteater posted is the DJF mean

the fact that the seasonal models are similar to the analog blend my colleagues and I worked out gives them a bit more credence IMO

they usually get the flavor of the season right at this point

and the whole "well, every single model must be wrong!" thing is a bit rich. there's a reason why they're showing what they're showing, it's not based on nothing

these are the same to you? because they're very different and yes, I know they're seasonal models and all, but that's what we're talking about. these are two completely different patterns in the Pacific

the STJ goes under the +PNA ridge, hence the split flow. you absolutely can sustain a +PNA with an active STJ as long as the Aleutian low isn't too far east and also, 2015 had the typical cooler than normal WPAC compared to the warmer than normal one that we're seeing now. so yes, it makes sense that it has forcing that's farther west than it was in 2015-16

for the largest EC storms, there is a -PNA on the mean about a week beforehand along with intense Greenland blocking. it’s just not so strong that it overwhelms the pattern

yes, a direct impact can’t be ruled out. no way to do that at this range however, based on the pattern that is now being modeled, a direct impact looks unlikely at best. that can change, but that seems to be the deal right now

if talking how about a winter pattern evolves and honking about a hurricane that likely misses 200 miles offshore are the same, I do not know what to tell you

saying there's a chance at a legit landfall at this range is like saying there's a shot at a day 10 KU with a +AO and a SE ridge

this is part of the transition to a basin-wide event rather than the east-based event that we've had all summer. models have been showing this consistently

Comparing a pre-loading composite of all recent EC landfalls to the current pattern, I think that the risk for a landfall is unlikely outside of Nova Scotia. Looking at the pattern from a week out until landfall, we see an amplified trough digging into the Plains that leads to a strong blocking high forming just NE of Maine. This is not the case here.\ There is a weak, progressive trough that moves into the OH Valley that doesn't serve to establish a blocking high at all. In fact, the strongest positive anomalies are north of the Great Lakes. The rather zonal flow over Nova Scotia is probably why this storm is going to escape east... without that strong blocking high the landfall scenario looks unlikely without a large change in the pattern. Even a capture scenario would be possible if the trough dug more, but the pattern just doesn't look amplified enough. The EPS is more what you'd want to see for an EC landfall with higher positive anomalies over SE Canada and a bit more digging with the trough over the E US, but even then it's far from ideal.

The EPS is more what you'd want to see for an EC landfall with higher positive anomalies over SE Canada and a bit more digging with the trough over the E US, but even then it's far from ideal

Comparing a pre-loading composite of all recent EC landfalls to the current pattern, I think that the risk for a landfall is unlikely outside of Nova Scotia. Looking at the pattern from a week out until landfall, we see an amplified trough digging into the Plains that leads to a strong blocking high forming just NE of Maine. This is not the case here. There is a weak, progressive trough that moves into the OH Valley that doesn't serve to establish a blocking high at all. In fact, the strongest positive anomalies are north of the Great Lakes. The rather zonal flow over Nova Scotia is probably why this storm is going to escape east... without that strong blocking high the landfall scenario looks unlikely without a large change in the pattern. Even a capture scenario would be possible if the trough dug more, but the pattern just doesn't look amplified enough.

wasn’t there west leaning forcing that led to the highly favorable month-long stretch from mid Jan into Feb? I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence

for much of coastal NE south of Boston I would say so

most winters only have 3-6 weeks of legit activity

I expect December to be pretty awful nobody can really talk after the 2014-15 fiasco with weenie suicides abound in mid-Jan before Boston got 100" of snow in like 6 weeks

new ONI at +1.1 for JJA, but the relative ONI is only +0.57, which is a difference of over half a degree! so although this has breached moderate territory, this is still acting more like a weak event... encouraging for winter